The month of August is ending with the Milwaukee Brewers as the best team in Major League Baseball. Their 85-52 record is the best in the league. Their +177 net run differential gives them a Pythagorean record of 87-49, confirming their great season is no fluke. That mark is also the best in Major League Baseball. They had won four games in a row before a 7-4 loss at home against Texas on Sunday. On Monday, August 31st, they began a new series in Chicago against the Cubs. The Cubs may have a 77-60 record, yet that leaves them 7 games behind the Brewers.
In the last week, Milwaukee is averaging 6.6 runs per game with a .290 batting average, a .362 on-base percentage, and a .425 slugging percentage. While the Brewers have a 47-25 record at home, they have been almost as good on the road, where they have a 38-27 record. They have won nine of their previous eleven games on the road against opponents with a winning percentage in the 54%-62% range. One of the reasons why they have been so good is that they are winning most of the games that they are supposed to win. They have won forty-seven of their seventy games this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite up to -150. Another reason why they have the best record in baseball is that they limit losing streaks. Milwaukee has won thirty of their fifty games following a loss this year.
The Brewers planned to end the month of August by tapping Kyle Harrison as their starting pitcher. He is making his fifth start since coming off the injured list. We backed him two starts ago, and he pitched five scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in an easy 22-0 victory for Milwaukee. The lefty has a 10-3 record with a 2.79 era and a 1.12 whip in twenty starts. Last week, he was coming off a bad start where he allowed eight earned runs in 4 2/3 innings on the road in San Diego. Cramping has been an issue since his return from an elbow injury, and his velocity was down against the Padres. Yet he pitched well in his first start back by giving up only one base hit and striking out ten batters in five innings before the cramping issue developed. On the road against the New York Mets last Tuesday, he gave up only one earned run in five innings. In his four previous starts this month, he has a 1.83 era with 26 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings.
The fundamentals are strong for the former Red Sox pitcher. His strikeout rate of 30.0% ranks in the top 90th percentile. His walk rate of 6.4% ranks in the top 82nd percentile. Milwaukee has won seven straight games against opponents with a winning percentage in the 54%-62% range when Harrison is their starting pitcher. It is the emergence of players like Harrison that has helped the Brewers become one of the biggest threats to win the World Series this season.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.