by Matt Fargo
Monday, Apr 06, 2026The most anticipated time of the golf season has arrived as it is the week of The Masters. This is considered by many as the unofficial start of spring and while avid golf fans live for this event, even non-golf enthusiasts know about this epic tournament and what it means. Its beautiful simplicity is what makes it the greatest golf tournament in the world and famed Augusta National plays host to its 90th Masters. Back in the day, hitting the ball a mile would be the greatest asset a player could have and even though the yardage has increased from 6,985 yards in 2001 to 7,565 yards today, making it the 8th longest course on tour, bombing it is no longer the biggest necessity.
Unless you have seen Augusta National in person, you cannot appreciate the undulations throughout and the enormous elevation changes which means getting a flat lie is not very common. Bomb and gouge will not get it done. Basically, it is a 'second shot' course as the approaches are important just to get into position as hitting an approach shot to the wrong place in some cases means not even being able to go after the pin. That brings big scores into play so the thought process is just as important as the physical part of the game. This place emphasizes the mental aspect arguably more than anywhere else but the shots still have to be made.
There are no secrets as to what it takes to put yourself into contention at The Masters as Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach are at the top. Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green plays a key role as according to Data Golf, Augusta National is the toughest course on tour in this category with the demanding greens and strategic bunkering. Despite the importance of ball striking, driving distance still plays a key role especially on the four the Par 5’s which are the only four holes that average under par with all four being reachable. This can also play into the Par 4s with all ten measuring over 440 yards including three at over 490 yards.
Putting strength is thought to be a huge component to have success because of the slope, speed and subtleties of the greens but this is not the case. 16 of the last 18 winners were ranked outside the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting, the two outliers being Jon Rahm in 2023 (No. 37) and Jordan Spieth in 2015 (No. 9). It is an interesting dynamic because the greens at Augusta National are the ultimate equalizer for every player because of the difficulty so nearly everyone struggles thus the great putters come back to the field. It was ranked No. 5 in SG: Putting Difficulty last year and over the last 17 years, it is ranked No. 2 in SG: Putting Difficulty (>15’) and No. 7 in SG: Putting Difficulty (5 ‘ < Putts < 15’).
Past history at Augusta National is paramount as a Masters debutant has not won here since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. There have been numerous close calls along the way but experience, even if it is just a little, has prevailed. There are 22 players in the field this year making their maiden walk around the property. Experience is great but successful experience goes further as 27 of the last 28 winners made the cut the year before they won while 25 of those 28 winners finished T38 or better. 15 of the last 18 winners had finished T22 or better in any previous Masters and 19 of the last 23 winners were at least 27 years old. This cuts the field down a considerable portion as of the 91 players, 27 fit all five of these categories.
Another qualifier that we can look at is winning success elsewhere, both quantity and quality. Of the last 17 winners, only two have not won at least four previous events, Danny Willett in 2016 and Jordan Spieth in 2015 while all 17 of those winners had won at least once on U.S. soil within two years. Having success in recent previous majors has found its way to success at The Masters as of the last 16 winners, 14 have finished T6 or better in a major within the last two years. The two exceptions were Hideki Matsuyama in 2021 and Charl Schwartzel in 2011. Only 12 players in the field this year nail all three of those outside qualifiers.
When looking at the above numbers involving course history success and getting it done away from Augusta National, there are only eight players in the field that check off all boxes and the names are far from staggering (Odds from DraftKings): Scottie Scheffler (+485), Jon Rahm (+910), Rory McIlroy (+1075), Bryson DeChambeau (+1075), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Hideki Matsuyama (+2700), Collin Morikawa (+3100) and Jason Day (+6700). These do not necessarily determine a winner as nothing is given but we can correlate these trends with the metrics to pull out our best fits for this week and then go further off track.
Surprisingly, the European contingent has struggled at Augusta National. Granted, it is a totally different experience but with the huge number of world class players, a European had not won since 1999 (Jose Maria Olazabal) until 2016 when Danny Willett was the surprising winner and then Sergio Garcia backed it up the next year and it was not until 2023 that Jon Rahm gave the Euros another victory and of course Rory McIlroy last year. In total, the green jacket has been given to only 10 European players (Nick Faldo 3 times, Olazabal 2 times, Seve Ballesteros 2 times, Bernhard Langer 2 times, Ian Woosnam, Sandy Lyle, Willett, Garcia, Rahm and McIlroy).
Americans dominated here early on with Gary Player being the only non-American to win through the first 43 years and he actually did it three times. Since then, it has been up for grabs as over the last 47 years, Americans have won the green jacket 25 times, 16 of those by six players, Tiger Woods (5), Phil Mickelson (3), Tom Watson (2). Ben Crenshaw (2), Bubba Watson (2) and Scottie Scheffler (2) with the rest of the world not far behind with 22 wins. Past history plays a big part as you will see names near the top that you rarely see in other events as successful players here are usually successful more than once.
It has been dry and warm leading up to The Masters and the forecast calls for that to continue with Thursday being the worst of the days if you want to call it that with a high of 68 with wind gusts maxing out at 25 mph. The wind dies down the remainder of the tournament with temperatures between 75 and 82 over the final three days. No rain is expected.
Top four key categories this week in order:
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Par 5 Scoring
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Xander Schauffele
Odds: Win 1,800 ~ Top Five 305 ~ Top Ten 140
Payout: Win 9,000.00 ~ Top Five 762.50 ~ Top Ten 350.00
Xander had a rib injury early last season where he missed two months and it cut down on his prep time and reps heading into The Masters but he still finished T8. That was his third straight top ten at The Masters and his fifth top ten in his last seven starts that includes a T2 and a T3. Now he is healthy and his game is coming around as after a MC and a T41 in his first two starts, he has five straight top 25s including a T7, 3 and T4. The lone concern here is he is No. 79 in Strokes Gained: Around The Green but he has found his driver that went inconsistent last year in stretches while his iron game continues to shine as he is No. 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach and his putter has heated up.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: Win 2,300 ~ Top Five 370 ~ Top Ten 168
Payout: Win 11,500.00 ~ Top Five 925.00 ~ Top Ten 420.00
When looking at the history qualifiers, Fleetwood fits all of those as the one thing he was shy of going into last year was a U.S. win but got that at the TOUR Championship. His recent majors history is very impressive as over the last four years which includes 16 events, he has missed the cut only three times and in the 13 he was around for the weekend, he has four top 5s although last year was the first year without one. He has been positive in Strokes Gained: Total in 14 of those last 16 majors. He is ranked in the top 50 in all four key categories and his lack of wins this season is due to poor putting which has been negative in three straight starts yet he still has four top 10s in five starts.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: Win 2,350 ~ Top Five 390 ~ Top Ten 178
Payout: Win 11,750.00 ~ Top Five 975.00 ~ Top Ten 445.00
Fitzpatrick has taken the last two weeks off since his win at the Valspar Championship which followed a runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship so it was a well deserved break. He is No. 2 in our model this week behind Rory McIlroy and he comes in ranked in the top 25 in all four key categories. Being great all around is a nice asset to have and his iron play has been elite as he is No. 7 despite nearly losing one full stroke at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has made ten starts at The Masters and has never missed a cut and while his best finish was a T7 in his debut in 2017, he is coming in with ideal form and it is clear his game fits here which could lead to a second major.
Patrick Reed
Odds: Win 4,400 ~ Top Five 670 ~ Top Ten 300
Payout: Win 22,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,675.00 ~ Top Ten 750.00
This is an unpopular play but it is hard to look past Reed with his elite history at Augusta National and his recent play. He left LIV to go to the DP World Tour which will eventually help make his return to the PGA Tour and he has been lighting it up overseas. He was average in the fall but he won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters in a span of three starts and those were sandwiched around a T2 at the Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship. He is ranked No. 25 in Strokes Gained: Total according to the Performance Table at Data Golf which takes all tours into account. No player in this field has more top 12 finishes at The Masters over the last eight years than Reed who has six.
Nicolai Højgaard
Odds: Win 7,800 ~ Top Five 1,050 ~ Top Ten 445
Payout: Win 39,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,625.00 ~ Top Ten 1,112.50.00
Højgaard is not a huge name in the U.S. as he has mainly split time on the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour. He is a European Ryder Cup player and has won three times overseas and now he is having his best season on the PGA Tour as he has not missed a cut in seven starts with includes a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T6 at the Cognizant Classic and posted a solo second in his last start at the Texas Children's Houston Open. He missed the cut here last year but he came in with three straight MCs so there was not no chance and he was T16 in 2024 as he was third after day one, fourth after day three and sixth heading into Sunday. He is 13th in our model despite the longshot odds.
Results through the Valero Texas Open (9 Tournaments):
Win: -16,500.00
Top Five: -1,725.00
Top Ten: +2,375.00
Unless you have seen Augusta National in person, you cannot appreciate the undulations throughout and the enormous elevation changes which means getting a flat lie is not very common. Bomb and gouge will not get it done. Basically, it is a 'second shot' course as the approaches are important just to get into position as hitting an approach shot to the wrong place in some cases means not even being able to go after the pin. That brings big scores into play so the thought process is just as important as the physical part of the game. This place emphasizes the mental aspect arguably more than anywhere else but the shots still have to be made.
There are no secrets as to what it takes to put yourself into contention at The Masters as Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach are at the top. Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green plays a key role as according to Data Golf, Augusta National is the toughest course on tour in this category with the demanding greens and strategic bunkering. Despite the importance of ball striking, driving distance still plays a key role especially on the four the Par 5’s which are the only four holes that average under par with all four being reachable. This can also play into the Par 4s with all ten measuring over 440 yards including three at over 490 yards.
Putting strength is thought to be a huge component to have success because of the slope, speed and subtleties of the greens but this is not the case. 16 of the last 18 winners were ranked outside the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting, the two outliers being Jon Rahm in 2023 (No. 37) and Jordan Spieth in 2015 (No. 9). It is an interesting dynamic because the greens at Augusta National are the ultimate equalizer for every player because of the difficulty so nearly everyone struggles thus the great putters come back to the field. It was ranked No. 5 in SG: Putting Difficulty last year and over the last 17 years, it is ranked No. 2 in SG: Putting Difficulty (>15’) and No. 7 in SG: Putting Difficulty (5 ‘ < Putts < 15’).
Past history at Augusta National is paramount as a Masters debutant has not won here since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. There have been numerous close calls along the way but experience, even if it is just a little, has prevailed. There are 22 players in the field this year making their maiden walk around the property. Experience is great but successful experience goes further as 27 of the last 28 winners made the cut the year before they won while 25 of those 28 winners finished T38 or better. 15 of the last 18 winners had finished T22 or better in any previous Masters and 19 of the last 23 winners were at least 27 years old. This cuts the field down a considerable portion as of the 91 players, 27 fit all five of these categories.
Another qualifier that we can look at is winning success elsewhere, both quantity and quality. Of the last 17 winners, only two have not won at least four previous events, Danny Willett in 2016 and Jordan Spieth in 2015 while all 17 of those winners had won at least once on U.S. soil within two years. Having success in recent previous majors has found its way to success at The Masters as of the last 16 winners, 14 have finished T6 or better in a major within the last two years. The two exceptions were Hideki Matsuyama in 2021 and Charl Schwartzel in 2011. Only 12 players in the field this year nail all three of those outside qualifiers.
When looking at the above numbers involving course history success and getting it done away from Augusta National, there are only eight players in the field that check off all boxes and the names are far from staggering (Odds from DraftKings): Scottie Scheffler (+485), Jon Rahm (+910), Rory McIlroy (+1075), Bryson DeChambeau (+1075), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Hideki Matsuyama (+2700), Collin Morikawa (+3100) and Jason Day (+6700). These do not necessarily determine a winner as nothing is given but we can correlate these trends with the metrics to pull out our best fits for this week and then go further off track.
Surprisingly, the European contingent has struggled at Augusta National. Granted, it is a totally different experience but with the huge number of world class players, a European had not won since 1999 (Jose Maria Olazabal) until 2016 when Danny Willett was the surprising winner and then Sergio Garcia backed it up the next year and it was not until 2023 that Jon Rahm gave the Euros another victory and of course Rory McIlroy last year. In total, the green jacket has been given to only 10 European players (Nick Faldo 3 times, Olazabal 2 times, Seve Ballesteros 2 times, Bernhard Langer 2 times, Ian Woosnam, Sandy Lyle, Willett, Garcia, Rahm and McIlroy).
Americans dominated here early on with Gary Player being the only non-American to win through the first 43 years and he actually did it three times. Since then, it has been up for grabs as over the last 47 years, Americans have won the green jacket 25 times, 16 of those by six players, Tiger Woods (5), Phil Mickelson (3), Tom Watson (2). Ben Crenshaw (2), Bubba Watson (2) and Scottie Scheffler (2) with the rest of the world not far behind with 22 wins. Past history plays a big part as you will see names near the top that you rarely see in other events as successful players here are usually successful more than once.
It has been dry and warm leading up to The Masters and the forecast calls for that to continue with Thursday being the worst of the days if you want to call it that with a high of 68 with wind gusts maxing out at 25 mph. The wind dies down the remainder of the tournament with temperatures between 75 and 82 over the final three days. No rain is expected.
Top four key categories this week in order:
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Par 5 Scoring
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Xander Schauffele
Odds: Win 1,800 ~ Top Five 305 ~ Top Ten 140
Payout: Win 9,000.00 ~ Top Five 762.50 ~ Top Ten 350.00
Xander had a rib injury early last season where he missed two months and it cut down on his prep time and reps heading into The Masters but he still finished T8. That was his third straight top ten at The Masters and his fifth top ten in his last seven starts that includes a T2 and a T3. Now he is healthy and his game is coming around as after a MC and a T41 in his first two starts, he has five straight top 25s including a T7, 3 and T4. The lone concern here is he is No. 79 in Strokes Gained: Around The Green but he has found his driver that went inconsistent last year in stretches while his iron game continues to shine as he is No. 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach and his putter has heated up.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: Win 2,300 ~ Top Five 370 ~ Top Ten 168
Payout: Win 11,500.00 ~ Top Five 925.00 ~ Top Ten 420.00
When looking at the history qualifiers, Fleetwood fits all of those as the one thing he was shy of going into last year was a U.S. win but got that at the TOUR Championship. His recent majors history is very impressive as over the last four years which includes 16 events, he has missed the cut only three times and in the 13 he was around for the weekend, he has four top 5s although last year was the first year without one. He has been positive in Strokes Gained: Total in 14 of those last 16 majors. He is ranked in the top 50 in all four key categories and his lack of wins this season is due to poor putting which has been negative in three straight starts yet he still has four top 10s in five starts.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: Win 2,350 ~ Top Five 390 ~ Top Ten 178
Payout: Win 11,750.00 ~ Top Five 975.00 ~ Top Ten 445.00
Fitzpatrick has taken the last two weeks off since his win at the Valspar Championship which followed a runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship so it was a well deserved break. He is No. 2 in our model this week behind Rory McIlroy and he comes in ranked in the top 25 in all four key categories. Being great all around is a nice asset to have and his iron play has been elite as he is No. 7 despite nearly losing one full stroke at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has made ten starts at The Masters and has never missed a cut and while his best finish was a T7 in his debut in 2017, he is coming in with ideal form and it is clear his game fits here which could lead to a second major.
Patrick Reed
Odds: Win 4,400 ~ Top Five 670 ~ Top Ten 300
Payout: Win 22,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,675.00 ~ Top Ten 750.00
This is an unpopular play but it is hard to look past Reed with his elite history at Augusta National and his recent play. He left LIV to go to the DP World Tour which will eventually help make his return to the PGA Tour and he has been lighting it up overseas. He was average in the fall but he won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters in a span of three starts and those were sandwiched around a T2 at the Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship. He is ranked No. 25 in Strokes Gained: Total according to the Performance Table at Data Golf which takes all tours into account. No player in this field has more top 12 finishes at The Masters over the last eight years than Reed who has six.
Nicolai Højgaard
Odds: Win 7,800 ~ Top Five 1,050 ~ Top Ten 445
Payout: Win 39,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,625.00 ~ Top Ten 1,112.50.00
Højgaard is not a huge name in the U.S. as he has mainly split time on the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour. He is a European Ryder Cup player and has won three times overseas and now he is having his best season on the PGA Tour as he has not missed a cut in seven starts with includes a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T6 at the Cognizant Classic and posted a solo second in his last start at the Texas Children's Houston Open. He missed the cut here last year but he came in with three straight MCs so there was not no chance and he was T16 in 2024 as he was third after day one, fourth after day three and sixth heading into Sunday. He is 13th in our model despite the longshot odds.
Results through the Valero Texas Open (9 Tournaments):
Win: -16,500.00
Top Five: -1,725.00
Top Ten: +2,375.00
