by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Dec 25, 2022TaxAct Texas Bowl
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Ole Miss -3.5; Ole Miss -170, Texas Tech +145
FanDuel: Ole Miss -3.5; Ole Miss -172, Texas Tech +142
BetMGM: Ole Miss -3.5; Ole Miss -175, Texas Tech +145
Caesars: Ole Miss -3.5; Ole Miss -169, Texas Tech +143
Season record
Texas Tech: 7-5
Ole Miss: 8-4
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Texas Tech - Ole Miss preview, analysis and prediction
Texas Tech analysis
You could not have picked a better finish to the regular season for the Texas Tech Red Raiders than what they were able to do in these final three games. Texas Tech was 4-5 going into its final three games of the regular season and was able to win outright against Kansas, win against a struggling Iowa State team, and then knocked off Oklahoma at home in overtime. As a result, Texas Tech has covered in its last three games and in five of the last seven. It would have been six had Texas Tech got two more points in the 34-24 loss to the College Football Playoff bound TCU Horned Frogs on November 5th, but it is what it is. Texas Tech has been able to rely on a high octane offense that has reached the top 25 in the country in terms of total yards, the top 13 in passing yards, and a nice middle of the pack 152 rushing yards per game to help push this program into a bowl game. Defensively it is a little bit more of a problem for Texas Tech. They give up nearly 415 yards per game, and on the ground they are not any better by giving up 167 rushing yards per game. Considering who is on the other side, this is not going to be a fun matchup for Texas Tech in terms of trying to stop the run.
Ole Miss analysis
Meanwhile, try to find me a worse finish to a regular season than a team who at one point was ranked in the top ten in the country and then went on to lose four of its last five, with losses against to the best teams in the conference, and then losing the rivalry game to instate rival Mississippi State. The Ole Miss Rebels finished the season losing three in a row, finished 1-4-1 against the spread in its final six, and have completely fizzled out on offense at the worst possible time. But if there is any hope for the rebels for this game, it's going to come down to their star running back Quinshon Judkins. in a year where the offense has been heavily disappointing from the quarterback position, the star running back for the rebels has been everything as advertised with 1476 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground to help pace this offense that went 8-4 this season. Judkins is a beast with power and speed that can dominate a game. You know how we were talking about the Texas Tech run defense earlier? This is the worst possible outcome for Texas Tech. They are about to have a nightmare as it pertains to trying to stop this running back. And I have no faith that Texas Tech can do it.
Prediction
The under has been Ole Miss’ friend over the last five bowl games, with the under cashing in all of them. Even though right now Ole Miss has been horrible against the spread, the matchup works out perfectly in their favor and this seems like the best time for Ole Miss to finish strong after a disappointing end to the regular season. Ole Miss 31, Texas Tech 20
Betting trends
Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS on the road off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992.
Texas Tech is is 11-24 ATS off an upset win against a conference opponent as an underdog since 1992.
Texas Tech is 1-8 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in their last game the last 3 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Texas Tech:
Passing: Donovan Smith – 1,505 yards, 12 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Sarodorick Thompson – 670 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Jerand Bradley – 656 yards, 5 TD
Ole Miss:
Passing: Jaxson Dart – 2,613 yards, 18 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Quinshon Judkins – 1,476 yards, 16 TD
Receiving: Malik Heath – 834 yards, 4 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Texas Tech Red Raiders - Ole Miss Rebels prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
