Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Baylor Bears: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/4/2023

by Chuck Sommers

Saturday, Feb 04, 2023
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Baylor -9
FanDuel: Baylor -9.5
BetMGM: Baylor -9.5
Caesars: Baylor -9.5

Season record
Texas Tech: 12-10 (1-8 Big 12)
No. 11 Baylor: 16-6 (5-4 Big 12)

February is here and the college basketball season is taking full shape. Conference races still to be determined, the top 25 completely in shambles for what seems like every week, and there's bound to be an upset what seems like every single week. But as the season continues to progress with what seems like exciting action every week, you know our champion handicappers continue to put the work in each and every week to not only make money for them, but to ensure you get money in your pocket. All you need to do is look at the last 30 days. Scott Rickenbach has reeled in a net profit of $14,000 with a 24-9-0 run on the college hardwood. Team Del Genio has killed it with a 13-1-0 run at +$11,900. Will Rogers (28-15-0) and Matt Fargo (40-27-0) have also seen five figures over the last 30 days with college basketball. Surely, you want to get on this winning as well. All you need to do is go to bigal.com, check out our Best Bets page and make sure you are following along on the action. March will be here before you know it! Take advantage of our best best plays and find out what our champion handicappers are doing at bigal.com!

Texas Tech - Baylor preview, prediction and analysis


Recent form
Texas Tech: won 80-77 (OT) vs. No. 12 Iowa State
Baylor: lost 76-71 at No. 10 Texas

College basketball is a funny thing because when you look at recent trends from one team that you don't expect to be good, and you compare it with another team that is supposed to be a top 25 team, you are left wondering if you should really think about taking the team that wasn't supposed to be good because on any given game day they can shock the world.
 
Which leads me to the Texas Tech Red Raiders as they take on the 11th ranked Baylor Bears on Saturday in Waco. Now under normal circumstances I would not be taking Texas Tech in any situation. I would not touch them with a 39 1/2 foot pole because they are not the same program that they used to be. As evidence of the 12-10 record and 1-8 mark in conference play.
 
But then you start seeing them win games, and not just win games. They go to LSU, which is not the most difficult place to play in this year, but they beat the tiger 76-68. OK, that's fine. And then you get two days later at home against the Iowa State Cyclones, and you beat them in overtime. Suddenly you have your first conference victory of the season and suddenly you have a win over a top 25 team and you have a win on the road in the span of three days.
 
Texas Tech 180-77 against the 13th ranked cyclones a few days ago. And it was about as thrilling of a victory as you could possibly imagine. Kevin Obanor led the way with 24 points and 13 rebounds, while Devion Harmon had 16 points despite shooting 5 of 17.
 
You look at this game and you don't see any reason why Texas Tech should have won, but they did. And it's the fact that they won two games in a row that makes you think that they can start putting a run together. Texas Tech got to the free throw line 37 times against Iowa State and won the game despite shooting just 40% from the field. Now Baylor hasn't looked so hot as of late and is coming off a loss to the Texas Longhorns, but do you really think Baylor should feel safe?
 
I mean, really think about it for a second. Baylor just five games ago played Texas Tech in their house. Texas tech's hung around long enough to only lose by seven period since that time, Baylor has won by only two points at Oklahoma, one by six against a struggling Kansas team, and won by three against Arkansas. Those last two games were at home, and then Baylor goes to Texas and loses 76-71 in their last game. Baylor for being a top 15 team in the country, is not playing well. And if you look at the great landscape of the Big 12 in general, Baylor is only two games back of Texas for the top spot in the conference. But do you really think Baylor is going to be able to leapfrog the likes of Iowa State, TCU, Kansas State, or even Texas?
 
I look at this matchup and I don't see any reason why Texas Tech cannot cover #1 and #2 not give them the slightest chance to outright win.
 
Prediction
 
Baylor has not shot the ball well as of late and they have not looked like the Baylor teams of old. In order for that to change they need to start winning these conference games at a more convincing rate because right now Baylor is looking like a team that is just middle of the road with nothing going for them. As far as I can tell, I like the underdog and the way they've been playing the last couple of games. Texas Tech 74, Baylor 71

Betting trends


Texas Tech is 11-13 ATS on the road the last 3 seasons.

Texas Tech is 2-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.

Baylor is 1-5 ATS after 2 straight unders this season.

Baylor is 21-19 ATS at home the last 3 seasons.

Projected starting lineup


Texas Tech:
PG: Rickie Isaacs Jr.
SG: De'Vion Harmon
SF: Jaylon Tyson
PF: Kevin Obanor
C: Daniel Batcho

Baylor:
PG: L.J. Cryer
SG: Adam Flagler
SF: Keyonte George
PF: Jalen Bridges
C: Flo Thamba

Statistical leaders

Texas Tech:
Points: Kevin Obanor -- 15.7
Rebounds: Kevin Obanor -- 6.5
Assists: De'Vion Harmon -- 3.7

Baylor:
Points: Keyonte George -- 17.4
Rebounds: Jalen Bridges -- 5.5
Assists: Adam Flagler -- 5.3

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Texas Tech Red Raiders - Baylor Bears prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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