by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 25, 2021
Game time: Noon ET
Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Baylor -14
BetMGM: Baylor -14.5
Caesars: Baylor -14
Season record
Texas Tech: 6-5 (3-5 Big 12)
No. 8 Baylor: 9-2 (6-2 Big 12)
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Texas Tech - Baylor preview and analysis
Last week
Texas Tech: lost 23-0 vs. Oklahoma State
Baylor: won 20-10 at Kansas State
Despite all that's happened, and even by doing the Lord's work, there's still a chance the Baylor Bears could miss out on the Big 12 Championship game.
The Bears will host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a must-win game for the No. 8 team in the country. The good news is they'll be getting their matchup out of the way.
The bad news is they'll be waiting until kickoff at 6:30 p.m. for the game that matters.
The Bedlam Game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oklahoma Sooners will decide who plays in the conference title game in AT&T Stadium. If Oklahoma wins, it'll be a rematch between the Sooners and Cowboys regardless of Baylor's result against Texas Tech.
If Oklahoma State wins, it'll be the Bears and Cowboys with an outside chance at the College Football Playoff on the line. I'm not sure if there's a rooting interest within the Big 12, but something tells me the latter is important here.
But man, does that loss to Gary Patterson-less TCU loom large this weekend or what?
The Bears are coming off a 10-point win at the Kansas State Wildcats in which the defense once again showed how good it is. Gerry Bohanon went down with a hamstring injury; leading rusher Abram Smith was held to 46 yards on 21 carries. Yet Blake Shapen came in and kept the ship steady with 137 yards on 16 of 21, and Baylor held Kansas State to just 263 total yards in the win.
Baylor's defense has forced a turnover in 19 straight games, which has been a major culture shift since Dave Aranda became the head coach 20 games ago. It's one of the reasons why when we talk about the cream of the crop in the Big 12, them and Oklahoma State have to be considered the top two.
The Bears are also 9-2 ATS this season; both losses are on the straight-up ledger (Oklahoma State, TCU).
As for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are bowl eligible and will likely be playing in the postseason thanks to that win against Houston back in Week 1. Outside of that, it's been a rough go. Texas Tech has lost three of four coming into the 80th all-time meeting against Baylor, including a 23-0 loss to Oklahoma State at home last week.
It was the first time since 1997 the Red Raiders had been shut out in a game. This is the same school that had Graham Harrell and Patrick Mahomes. Much has changed since.
The Red Raiders were outgained 427-108 and had the ball for only 23:02.
Prediction
Texas Tech is 5-5-1 ATS this season, but much like Oklahoma State last week, they will run into a buzzsaw defensively that is Baylor. Whether it's Shapen or Bohanon under center, it shouldn't matter. The Bears will be anxiously waiting until later in the day to see their fate, but should handle business easily Saturday. Baylor by 24
Betting trends
Texas Tech is 1-6 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.
Texas Tech is 34-18 ATS in its last 54 off a home loss overall.
Baylor is 6-0 ATS at home this season.
Baylor is 11-8 in its last 19 as a favorite.
Statistical leaders
Texas Tech:
Passing: Henry Colombi -- 1,291 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: SaRodorick Thompson -- 431 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Erik Ezukanma -- 691 yards, 4 TD
Baylor:
Passing: Gerry Bohanon -- 2,160 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Abram Smith -- 1,249 yards, 11 TD
Receiving: Tyquan Thornton -- 838 yards, 8 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
