Texas State Bobcats vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/17/2022

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 17, 2022

Venue:  McLane Stadium, Waco, TX 

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texas State +31, Baylor -31; Over/Under:  53 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texas State +31, Baylor -31; Over/Under:  53 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texas State +32.5, Baylor -32.5; Over/Under:  53.5 points

 

Texas State Bobcats:  1-1 (5th place, Sun Belt Group B)

Baylor Bears:  1-1 (8th place, Big 12)

 

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Texas State Bobcats:  won their last game at home against the Florida International Panthers 41-12.

Baylor Bears:  lost their last game on the road against the BYU Cougars in overtime 26-20.

 

Texas State is entering this game with a 1-1 record overall to start their college football season and they will be playing their 2nd road game of the season here as they are 0-1 in their road games this year. They won against the FIU Panthers in their last game at home 41-12. Layne Hatcher started that game at QB and he completed 15/30 passes for 226 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Calvin Hill led the team in rushing with 195 yards and 1 TD on 28 rushing attempts. Charles Brown led the team in receiving with 68 yards and 1 TD on 2 receptions. Jarron Morris led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles. Jordan Revels and Davon Sears both led the defense in sacks with 1 each while Kordell Rodgers came away with 2 interceptions for them in that one.

 

 

 

Baylor is entering this game with a 1-1 record overall to start their college football season and they will be playing their 2nd home game of the season as they are 1-0 in their home games this year. They lost against the BYU Cougars in their last game on the road 26-20 in OT. Blake Shapen started that game at QB and he completed 18/28 passes for 137 yards and 1 touchdown. Craig Williams led the team in rushing with 68 yards on 17 rushing attempts. Hal Presley led the team in receiving with 31 yards on 3 receptions. Matt Jones led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles each. Matt Jones and Devin Neal both led the defense in sacks with 1 each while no one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Baylor listed as a 31 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Baylor just suffered a heartbreaking loss against BYU in their last game, losing a close game in OT, but these are the defending Big 12 champions and they will be looking to bounce back in this game at home. Texas State is a much weaker team than what Baylor saw last week and they are going to be looking to take out some anger on Texas State in this game. Texas State just got a big win in their last game but they played against a Florida International team that was struggling to beat FCS teams this season. Texas State does not have a very good team, they have not performed well in the Sun Belt for the last few years now, and Baylor has the talent on their team to shut them down with defense and put up a ton of points. Baylor is back at home and they will be looking for one more big blowout win before their conference schedule starts. The best way to place a bet here is on Baylor to cover the spread in this game.

 

Texas State Baylor Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 17, 2022 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Baylor 56 Texas State 10.

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Texas State Bobcats: 16-25 ATS after playing a non-conference game. 27-13 OVER after playing a non-conference game. 13-7 OVER off a home win. 

Baylor Bears: 15-9 ATS in all games. 10-4 ATS as a home favorite of 28.5 to 35 points. 66-41 OVER as a favorite.

 

 

Texas State Bobcats:  None.

Baylor Bears:  None.

 

 

“There’s a lot of disappointment, a lot of frustration from this game. I think there was a lot of buildup to this game as well. We had a lot of added pressure as well, really just from ourselves. I think the reason that we’re disappointed and frustrated is because we’re not playing up to the style of play that we should be playing. That was kind of discouraging. That’s why I think they are humbled. I think there’s a lot of ‘look yourself in the mirror and see where you’re at’ going on right now.” - Jake Spavital after his team’s loss against Nevada in their season opener.

 

 

"Right up until that fourth down [the last play of the game]' I think everyone on our sideline thought we were going to win and that's just way special. There are going to be wins and losses, but the bigger loss is if we lose that belief." - Dave Aranda after his team’s loss against BYU in their last game.

 

 

 

WR Barbee, Marcell

WR Banks, Javen

WR Hawkins, Ashtyn

WR Groves, Rontavius 

TE Hilts, Micah

QB Hatcher, Layne

RB Hill, Calvin 

 

WR Presley, Hal

WR Jones, Seth

WR Baldwin, Monaray 

TE Sims, Ben 

QB Shapen, Blake 

RB McWilliams, Taye 

 

 

Passing: L. Hatcher (515)

Rushing: C. Hill (210)

Receiving: A. Hawkins (137)

Touchdowns: A. Hawkins (3)

 

Passing: B. Shapen (351)

Rushing: Q. Jones (126)

Receiving: H. Presley (87)

Touchdowns: Q. Jones (3)

 

Coaches:

Texas State Bobcats: Jake Spavital (4th season)

Baylor Bears: Dave Aranda (3rd season)