Texas State Bobcats vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/02/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 2, 2023

Venue:  McLane Stadium, Waco, TX 

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texas State +26.5, Baylor -26.5; Over/Under:  60.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texas State +26.5, Baylor -26.5; Over/Under:  60.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texas State +26.5, Baylor -26.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

Texas State Bobcats:  0-0 (Sun Belt West)

Baylor Bears:  0-0 (Big 12)

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Texas State Bobcats:  N/A

Baylor Bears:  N/A

Texas State finished last season with a 4-8 record overall and they had a 2-6 record in their conference games too. They were 4-2 in their home games, 0-6 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be on the road for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 21.1 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 26.3 points per game. Their offense also averaged 325.2 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 361.1 yards per game. Layne Hatcher led the team in passing yards with 2653, Lincoln Pare led the team in rushing yards with 772, and Ashtyn Hawkins led the team in receiving yards with 587.

 

 

 

Baylor finished last season with a 6-7 record overall and they had a 4-5 record in their conference games too. They were 3-3 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they were also 0-1 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be at home for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 32.2 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 26.8 points per game. Their offense also averaged 413.8 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 371 yards per game. Blake Shapen led the team in passing yards with 2790, Richard Reese led the team in rushing yards with 972, and Monaray Baldwin led the team in receiving yards with 565.

The current betting odds have Baylor listed as a 26.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Baylor finished last season with a 6-7 record overall and they were 4-5 in their conference games. They did have an offense that was putting up points last season as they were averaging over 30 points scored per game and they have also made some moves with the transfer portal to improve their team. Meanwhile, Texas State had a terrible season last year as they finished with a 4-8 record overall and struggled a lot in their own conference, going 2-6 in the Sun Belt. They were also terrible in their road games going 0-6 all season and they were barely averaging 20 points per game too. Texas State doesn't have a great offense this season either and they are going to struggle to move the ball on the road here with an improved Baylor defense. Baylor will also be looking to have a much better year with all the new teams added to the Big 12 so they will be eager to put their new talent to use and come out strong in this 1st game of the season. Texas State doesn't have the offense to keep up with Baylor either if Baylor starts pulling away by a lot. The best way to place a bet here is on Baylor to cover the spread in this game. 

Texas State Baylor Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 2, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is prediction.

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Texas State Bobcats: 14-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points. 7-1 UNDER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 

Baylor Bears: 10-3 ATS in home games. 6-1 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 9-5 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. 17-10 ATS in all games.

Texas State Bobcats:  None.

Baylor Bears:  None.

“Yeah, it's been back and forth. Just different skill sets, I would say, both have their good days and good parts of practice.” - G.J. Kinne on the starting QB battle before the season starts.

“I think one of the struggles for me has always been if you say yes to something, a player outside of your team that’s in the portal, you’re saying no to a player on your team. I think for me to kind of come to grips with hey, this is what needs to happen for the betterment of the team as opposed to just looking at what’s best for that one particular player on your team.” - Dave Aranda on the transfer portal.

WR Corrales, Beau 

WR Brown, Charles 

WR Hawkins, Ashtyn 

TE Fox, Konner 

QB Hornsby, Malik 

RB Hill, Calvin 

WR Jackson Jr., Ketron 

WR Presley, Hal 

WR Baldwin, Monaray 

TE Roberts, Jake 

QB Shapen, Blake 

RB Reese, Richard 

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Coaches:

Texas State Bobcats: G.J. Kinne (1st season)

Baylor Bears: Dave Aranda (4th season)