by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Thursday, Nov 25, 2021
Game Time: 2:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 27, 2021
Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texas State +2, Arkansas State -2; Over/Under: 62.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texas State +2.5, Arkansas State -2.5; Over/Under: 62.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texas State +2.5, Arkansas State -2.5; Over/Under: 62.5 points
Season Record
Texas State Bobcats: 3-8 (2nd place, Sun Belt Group B)
Arkansas State Red Wolves: 2-9 (5th place, Sun Belt Group B)
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Texas State Bobcats vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Texas State Bobcats: lost on the road on Nov. 20 against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 35-21.
Arkansas State Red Wolves: lost on the road on Nov. 20 against the Georgia State Panthers 28-20.
Texas State Bobcats Analysis
Texas State is coming into this college football game with a 3-8 record overall and they are 1-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 8th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 2-5 in their conference games this season. They have lost 5 of their last games and are coming into this one on a 2 game losing streak after another loss in their last game. Quarterback Tyler Vitt was the starter and he did not have a good game as he completed 13/26 passes for 106 yards and 1 touchdown. Calvin Hill had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 100 yards and 1 touchdown on 12 carries while Jahmyl Jeter had 42 yards and 1 touchdown on 11 carries. Ashtyn Hawkins led the receivers with 41 yards on 2 receptions while Marcell Barbee had 38 yards and 1 touchdown on 2 receptions in what was a pretty quiet day for the receiving corps. Zion Childress led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones. Caeveon Patton and London Harris both combined for the only sack in that game while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 253 total points in their 11 games this season averaging 23 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 374 points against them allowing 34 PPG. Their offense is averaging 344.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 428.5 YPG.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Analysis
Arkansas State is coming into this game with a 2-9 record overall and they are 1-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 8th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 1-6 in their conference games this season. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game. Layne Hatcher really struggled in that game as he completed 28/48 passes for 273 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Lincoln Pare led the team in rushing with 33 yards on 13 carries. Pare also led the receivers with 118 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions and was pretty much the focal point of their offense in that game. Melique Straker led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones. Kivon Bennett led the defense in sacks in that game with 1.5 while Samy Johnson came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 281 points in their 11 games this season averaging 25.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 439 points against them allowing 39.9 PPG. Their offense is averaging 388.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 522 YPG.
Texas State vs Arkansas State Prediction
Arkansas State is coming into this game as a 2 point favorite and Texas State being the underdogs with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the last game of the year for both of these teams as both had very disappointing seasons this year. Both have not been playing well all season but Arkansas State has started to play better in their last 2 games. This was an offense that was scoring a lot of points at the beginning of the year and they could easily outscore Texas State in this game as their offense is not as strong. The best bet to place in this game is on Arkansas State to cover the spread here as they have a much better offense and will be able to outscore Texas State here at home.
Texas State Arkansas State Prediction: Our free NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 27, 2021 (2:00 pm ET start time) is Arkansas State 38 Texas State 30.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Texas State Bobcats: 53-62 O/U in all games. 20-25 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 37-51 O/U as an underdog. 20-34 O/U as a road underdog. 24-35 O/U in road games. 33-43 O/U against conference opponents.
Arkansas State Red Wolves: 18-26 O/U when the line is +3 to -3. 94-114 O/U in all games. 43-49 O/U in home games. 64-68 O/U against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Texas State Bobcats: Brady McBride (QB) Out Sat - Ankle injury. D. Moorer (WR) out for season - Undisclosed injury. W. Jones (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot injury.
Arkansas State Red Wolves: E. Stevenson (TE) out for season - Knee injury. J. Blackman (QB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder injury.
Notable Quotes
"He sparked us when we put him in the ULM game and we have let Vitt roll from there. We’ve been developing (McBride and Evans), they are all getting reps with the ones. We’re all developing like crazy. Right now, the intentions are just to get Vitt going in his last career game here for Texas State.” - Jake Spavital on getting ready for the final games of the season.
“Season didn’t start off the way he had planned or liked to, not starting. And you would have never known it. Continued to lead in his own way. Continued to lead by positivity, brought it in practice every single day. And then when he got his opportunity, he made the most of it. And if you talk about an individual that’s vested in this program, who has an affinity for this program, who lives and dies with this program, it’s Jacob Still.” - Butch Jones on the impact of Jacob Still on the team.
Starting Lineups
Texas State Bobcats
WR Marcell Barbee
WR Javen Banks
WR Groves, Rontavius
WR Drue Jackson
TE Lanam, Jackson
QB Vitt, Tyler
RB Calvin Hill
Arkansas State Red Wolves
WR Foreman, Jeff
WR Corey Rucker
WR Hunt, Te'Vailance
TE Tyler, Reed
QB Hatcher, Layne
RB Lamar, Alan
Statistical Leaders
Texas State Bobcats
Passing: B. McBride (1507)
Rushing: C. Hill (590)
Receiving: J. Banks (548)
Touchdowns: Jahmyl Jeter (6)
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Passing: L. Hatcher (2146)
Rushing: L. Pare (373)
Receiving: C. Rucker (747)
Touchdowns: C. Rucker (9)
Coaches:
Texas State Bobcats: Jake Spavital (3rd season)
Arkansas State Red Wolves: Butch Jones (1st season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
