Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/18/2022

Time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL

Where to watch: Bally Sports Southwest, Bally Sports Sun

DraftKings: Rays -200, Rangers +170

FanDuel: NL

BetMGM: NL

Caesars: Rays -205, Rangers +170

Rangers: 63-81

Rays: 80-64

It’s hard right now for the Tampa Bay Rays to take anymore losses if they’re trying to get back to the postseason. That ship may have already sailed having lost six of eight coming into the second game of their three-game set against the Texas Rangers, but losing 4-3 on Friday following losing three of five to the Toronto Blue Jays is not a good start.

 

Then again, it’s been hard for any team to hit off Martin Perez this year. The All-Star went 5.1 innings and allowed just three runs, another instance in how good he’s really been this year. Meanwhile, the Rangers got what they could get off former teammate Corey Kluber, getting four runs off him in nine hits despite the former Cy Young winner striking out six.

 

"They're trying to hit balls in the alley and they hit some ground balls, got on base," Perez said. "That's what happens when you face a good team, but I think I made my pitches and we won."

 

Kluber fell behind, though, when he gave up a two-run homer to Nathaniel Lowe, then followed with a two-run double from Corey Seager.

 

"The pitch to Seager wasn't a bad pitch, tip your hat to him. I didn't execute the pitch to Lowe and he did what he's supposed to do," said Kluber, who has allowed eight hits in consecutive starts for the first time in more than four years. "Two pitches, or I guess one pitch that I was really disappointed with ... That's how it goes."

 

The pitching matchup Sunday should greatly benefit the Rays this time around, however. The Rangers are sending struggling right-hander Glenn Otto (6-8, 4.71 ERA) to the mound against Tampa Bay’s solid lefty Jeffrey Springs (8-4, 2.41 ERA).

 

Although his numbers on the mound don’t reflect it, the Rangers have been decent when Otto is on the bump. Texas is 11-12 when Otto starts and are 7-6 when he starts on the road. If you think about it, it could be much worse. I think the Rangers, given the fact that Chris Woodward is gone and Jon Daniels is gone, they’ll take that.

 

For the Rays, it’s about finding that groove late in the year. They got 10 hits on Friday but only had three runs come home. This is a group that has a lot of talent at the plate and should be better than that. Trying to rely on their newly-found rotation led by Shane McClanahan is a bold strategy, but I think it’s hurt that Wander Franco’s production has dipped to a .262 average, while Yandy Diaz and Manuel Margot are their top hitters. Randy Arozarena has also seen his production dip to .266 this year.

 

The Rays have been a great home team all year, going 47-25, and have been great as a large home favorite, going 20-5 when the line is between -150 and -200 when at home. Tampa is also 6-0 when Springs starts and they’re a favorite of at least -150. In short, this should be a dominant matchup for Tampa.

 

This is the time of year where the Rays need to start winning, and need to show that this young group can get it done. Otto hasn’t had the greatest year and this is the time for the Rays to take advantage. Rays win 7-3

Rangers are 7-20 this season against AL East opponents.

Rangers are 7-10 as an underdog between +170 and +250 this season.

Rays are 52-19 when the total is seven or less the past three seasons.

Rangers:
Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B
Adolis Garcia (R) RF
Jonah Heim (S) C
Josh Jung (R) 3B
Kole Calhoun (L) DH
Leody Taveras (S) CF
Bubba Thompson (R) LF

Rays:
Jonathan Aranda (L) 3B
Wander Franco (S) SS
Harold Ramirez (R) 1B
David Peralta (L) LF
Manuel Margot (R) RF
Francisco Mejia (S) C
Ji-Man Choi (L) DH
Taylor Walls (S) 2B
Jose Siri (R) CF

Batting average: Nathaniel Lowe -- .308

Home runs: Corey Seager -- 30

RBI: Adolis Garcia -- 92

Wins: Martin Perez -- 12

ERA: Martin Perez -- 2.84

Batting average: Yandy Diaz -- .293

Home runs: Randy Arozarena -- 19

RBI: Rnady Arozarena -- 79

Wins: Shane McClanahan -- 12

ERA: Shane McClanahan -- 2.13