Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/03/2023

Game Time: 3:08 pm ET, Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Venue:  Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL 

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +130, Rays -155; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +130, Rays -150; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +125, Rays -150; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Texas Rangers:  90-72 (2nd place, AL West)

Tampa Bay Rays:  99-63 (2nd place, AL East)

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Texas Rangers:  6-4 last 10

Tampa Bay Rays:  6-4 last 10

The Rangers are entering this series off a loss and lost their 4-game series against the Seattle Mariners 3-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a road record of 40-41. This is the series opener of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Rays on Tuesday for the AL Wild Card Series and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .789 OPS. Dane Dunning was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Jordan Montgomery is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 10-11 with a 3.20 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 5 Ks on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Seattle Mariners.

The Rays are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 99-63 record overall and had a home record of 53-28. This is the 1st game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Rangers on Tuesday for the AL Wild Card Series and they had Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .776 OPS. Jacob Lopez was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Tyler Glasnow is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 9 strikeouts on 2 hits through 5 innings played against the Boston Red Sox.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the 1st game of a best of 3 series to see who advances to the ALDS. The Rays finished the regular season with the better record and they are going to have home advantage here where they have been really good all season while the Rangers have a losing record on the road. The Rays have been the hotter team coming into the playoffs too as they won their final series of the regular season while the Rangers lost theirs when they still had a chance to win the AL West. The Rays also have the better pitching staff and that is going to play a big role here since the Rangers have struggled with their bullpen throughout the season, especially late in games. Glasnow has also been really consistent in his last few starts so the Rangers offense will have a tough time considering how they have been struggling to put runs up lately. The Rays have the best chance at taking game 1 of this series at home with this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Rangers Rays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, October 3, 2023 (3:08 pm ET start time) is Rays 4 Rangers 2.

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Texas Rangers: 35-36 (-8.9 units) on the moneyline after a loss. 6-11 (-6.6 units) on the moneyline after scoring 1 run or less. 1-4 (-4.6 units) on the moneyline after batting .175 or worse over a 3 game span. 11-0 OVER after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse. 37-18 OVER after allowing 2 runs or less. 14-5 OVER after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less.

Tampa Bay Rays: 85-40 (+21.9 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 76-44 (+16.8 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 8.5. 25-11 (+10.5 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 47-26 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 21-11 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 14-7 OVER revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less.

Texas Rangers:  J. Gray (SP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. I. Kennedy (RP) out for season - Shoulder. M. Scherzer (SP) Early Oct - Shoulder. B. Miller (DH) out for season - Hamstring. J. deGrom (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Odorizzi (SP) out for season - Shoulder. B. Martin (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.

Tampa Bay Rays:  L. Raley (RF) Early Oct - Neck. J. Adam (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique. C. Faucher (RP) out for season - Bicep. B. Lowe (2B) Late Oct - Knee. G. Jones (SS) out for season - Hamstring. J. Siri (CF) Early Oct - Hand. W. Franco (SS) Out indefinitely - Personal. S. McClanahan (SP) out for season - Forearm. D. Rasmussen (RP) out for season - Elbow. G. Cleavinger (RP) out for season - Knee. J. Springs (RP) out for season - Elbow. S. Baz (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“There’s always going to be disappointment because this game was big. It was huge. And so I’m sure there’s disappointment in there. Once we get on the plane realizing you’re in postseason, and like I said, you get your head back to where it needs to be.” - Bruce Bochy after his team’s loss against the Mariners in their last game of the season on Sunday.

“Good for Johnny to feel good about himself.” - Kevin Cash on Jonathan Aranda after his team’s win against the Blue Jays in their last game of the regular season on Sunday.

Marcus Semien (R) 2B

Corey Seager (L) SS

Mitch Garver (R) DH

Adolis Garcia (R) RF

Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B

Josh Jung (R) 3B

Jonah Heim (S) C

Leody Taveras (S) CF

Evan Carter (L) LF

Junior Caminero (R) SS

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Harold Ramirez (R) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Curtis Mead (R) 2B

Manuel Margot (R) CF

Raimel Tapia (L) LF

Rene Pinto (R) C

Batting Average:  Corey Seager (.327)

Hits:  Marcus Semien (185)

Home Runs:  Adolis Garcia (39)

RBI:  Adolis Garcia (107)

Stolen Bases:  Travis Jankowski (19)

Wins:  Nathan Eovaldi (12)

Saves:  Will Smith (22)

ERA:  Jake Latz (0.00)

Batting Average:  Tristan Gray (.400)

Hits:  Yandy Diaz (173)

Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (31)

RBI:  Isaac Paredes (98)

Stolen Bases:  Josh Lowe (32)

Wins:  Zach Eflin (16)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (25)

ERA:  Chase Anderson (0.00)

Managers:

Texas Rangers: Bruce Bochy (1st season)

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (9th season)