Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/29/2023

Game Time: 8:40 pm ET, Saturday, July 29, 2023

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  SDPA

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +150, Padres -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +150, Padres -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +150, Padres -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Texas Rangers:  60-43 (1st place, AL West)

San Diego Padres:  49-54 (4th place, NL West)

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Texas Rangers:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

The Rangers are entering this series off a win but lost their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 60-43 record overall and have a road record of 26-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .806 OPS. Dane Dunning is their starting pitcher on Friday while Martín Pérez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 6 hits through 6 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-54 record overall and have a home record of 26-25. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Rangers on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Joe Musgrove is their starting pitcher on Friday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-7 with a 4.80 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 7 earned runs, 4 homers, and 3 BB with 3 strikeouts on 8 hits through 4.1 innings played against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The current betting odds have the Rangers listed as a big underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rangers have been rolling all season as they have the best record in the AL West along with one of the best offenses in the entire MLB and they will be looking to hang onto their small division lead here. The Padres have been terrible this season with their losing record and now that the trade deadline is approaching, there is a good chance that this team is ready to sell. The Padres haven't been hitting well on offense all season and their pitching has also been really questionable in their games lately. They have Darvish on the mound here and he is coming off a terrible start in his last one which has turned into a common theme for him this year as he has been giving up a ton of runs in a majority of his starts. The Rangers have been up and down lately against some of the stronger teams they have faced but they still have one of the best offenses in the league and they are going to put up runs on the Padres in this game while the Padres offense will not be able to compete with the Rangers. The Rangers also have Perez on the mound and even though he was bad in his last start and has been up and down all season, he has still had some really good starts and will be looking to shut down this weaker Padres offense. He will also get plenty of run support in this game and there is simply too much value on the Rangers at this price for the way they have played all season compared to the Padres. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rangers to win this game.

Rangers Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 29, 2023 (8:40 pm ET start time) is Rangers 7 Padres 2.

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Texas Rangers: 60-43 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 34-20 (+13 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 8.5. 7-1 OVER against NL West opponents. 19-10 OVER in an inter-league game.

San Diego Padres: 49-54 (-24.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 24-25 (-14.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 19-8 OVER against AL West opponents. YU DARVISH is 13-6 OVER as a favorite of -175 to -250.

Texas Rangers:  J. Heim (C) Ques Fri - Wrist. J. Sborz (RP) Early Aug - Bicep. C. Seager (SS) Out indefinitely - Thumb. J. deGrom (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Odorizzi (SP) out for season - Shoulder. B. Martin (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.

San Diego Padres:  J. Soto (LF) Ques Fri - Finger. A. Jacob (SP) Mid Sept - Elbow. E. Rosario (3B) Early Aug - Ankle. D. Carlton (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. M. Wacha (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. R. Knehr (SP) out for season - Elbow. A. Morejon (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm.

“Not just to win today, but how we won. To get down, how we responded after Marcus got drilled. You’re talking about karma at its finest, I really think that was the case because there’s no way Andrew’s trying to hit somebody. He’s ahead in the count, and we’re trying to get him out of the first inning.” - Bruce Bochy after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Wednesday.

“I think the umpires handled it right. You saw where the catcher set up and missed by a pretty wide margin.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s win against the Pirates in their game on Tuesday.

Marcus Semien (R) 2B

Ezequiel Duran (R) SS

Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B

Adolis Garcia (R) RF

Josh Jung (R) 3B

Jonah Heim (S) C

Mitch Garver (R) DH

Robbie Grossman (S) LF

Leody Taveras (S) CF

Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Luis Campusano (R) C

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Gary Sanchez (R) DH

Taylor Kohlwey (L) LF

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Batting Average:  Corey Seager (.350)

Hits:  Marcus Semien (120)

Home Runs:  Adolis Garcia (25)

RBI:  Adolis Garcia (84)

Stolen Bases:  Travis Jankowski (15)

Wins:  Nathan Eovaldi (11)

Saves:  Will Smith (17)

ERA:  Brock Burke (2.63)

Batting Average:  Matthew Batten (.333)

Hits:  Xander Bogaerts (97)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (20)

RBI:  Juan Soto (62)

Stolen Bases:  Ha-Seong Kim (19)

Wins:  Joe Musgrove (9)

Saves:  Josh Hader (24)

ERA:  Pedro Avila (0.00)

Managers:

Texas Rangers: Bruce Bochy (1st season)

San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)