by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jul 27, 2023
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, July 28, 2023
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: SDPA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Rangers +150, Padres -175; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Rangers +150, Padres -175; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Rangers +150, Padres -175; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
Texas Rangers: 60-43 (1st place, AL West)
San Diego Padres: 49-54 (4th place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Texas Rangers: 6-4 last 10
San Diego Padres: 5-5 last 10
Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Rangers are entering this series off a win but lost their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 60-43 record overall and have a road record of 26-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .806 OPS. Andrew Heaney was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Dane Dunning is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-3 with a 3.18 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 2 HR, and 2 BB with 1 K on 7 hits through 3 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-54 record overall and have a home record of 26-25. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rangers on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Seth Lugo was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Joe Musgrove is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 9-3 with a 3.25 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 BB with 6 strikeouts on 7 hits through 6 innings played against the Detroit Tigers.
Rangers vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Rangers listed as a big underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rangers have been rolling all season with one of the best offenses in the MLB and the best record in the AL West too. They just lost some ground in their last series against the Astros but they will be looking to restore their lead in the division by taking advantage of the Padres in this series who have struggled to win games all season with their losing record. The Padres do have Musgrove on the mound here and he has been their 1 bright spot this season, but the bullpen has been giving up a ton of runs in their games lately and the Rangers offense will take advantage of any scoring opportunities they get here with how hot they have been lately. The Rangers will also have a good starter here though as they have Dunning on the mound and even though he gave up 5 runs in his last start, he has been really solid and reliable all season as he is one of their best pitchers in the rotation and he will have no issues trying to shut down this cold Padres offense that hasn't been putting up a ton of runs all year. The Rangers have a good enough pitching matchup in this one to keep the Padres offense at bay while the Rangers offense carries the team once again here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rangers to win this game.
Rangers Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 28, 2023 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Rangers 6 Padres 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Texas Rangers: 60-43 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 16-6 (+8.9 units) on the moneyline after scoring 9 runs or more. 7-1 OVER against NL West opponents. 19-10 OVER in an inter-league game.
San Diego Padres: 49-54 (-24.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 24-25 (-14.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 19-8 OVER against AL West opponents. 9-4 OVER when playing with a day off.
Key Injuries
Texas Rangers: J. Heim (C) Ques Fri - Wrist. J. Sborz (RP) Early Aug - Bicep. C. Seager (SS) Out indefinitely - Thumb. J. deGrom (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Odorizzi (SP) out for season - Shoulder. B. Martin (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.
San Diego Padres: J. Soto (LF) Ques Fri - Finger. A. Jacob (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. E. Rosario (3B) Early Aug - Ankle. D. Carlton (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. M. Wacha (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. R. Knehr (SP) out for season - Elbow. A. Morejon (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm.
Notable Quotes
“Not just to win today, but how we won. To get down, how we responded after Marcus got drilled. You’re talking about karma at its finest, I really think that was the case because there’s no way Andrew’s trying to hit somebody. He’s ahead in the count, and we’re trying to get him out of the first inning.” - Bruce Bochy after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Wednesday.
“I think the umpires handled it right. You saw where the catcher set up and missed by a pretty wide margin.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s win against the Pirates in their game on Tuesday.
Starting Lineups
Texas Rangers
Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Ezequiel Duran (R) SS
Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B
Adolis Garcia (R) RF
Josh Jung (R) 3B
Jonah Heim (S) C
Mitch Garver (R) DH
Robbie Grossman (S) LF
Leody Taveras (S) CF
San Diego Padres
Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Luis Campusano (R) C
Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B
Gary Sanchez (R) DH
Taylor Kohlwey (L) LF
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
Texas Rangers
Batting Average: Corey Seager (.350)
Hits: Marcus Semien (120)
Home Runs: Adolis Garcia (25)
RBI: Adolis Garcia (84)
Stolen Bases: Travis Jankowski (15)
Wins: Nathan Eovaldi (11)
Saves: Will Smith (17)
ERA: Brock Burke (2.63)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Matthew Batten (.333)
Hits: Xander Bogaerts (97)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (20)
RBI: Juan Soto (62)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (19)
Wins: Joe Musgrove (9)
Saves: Josh Hader (24)
ERA: Pedro Avila (0.00)
Managers:
Texas Rangers: Bruce Bochy (1st season)
San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
