Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/05/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Jul 04, 2025
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Saturday, July 5, 2025
Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA 
Where to Watch:  MLBN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +118, Padres -144; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +120, Padres -140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +120, Padres -145; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

Texas Rangers:  43-44 (4th place, AL West)
San Diego Padres:  46-40 (2nd place, NL West)

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Recent Form
Texas Rangers:  5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10



Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis


The Rangers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-44 record overall and have a road record of 17-25. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 26th in the MLB with a .664 OPS. Kumar Rocker is their starting pitcher on Friday while Jack Leiter is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-5 with a 4.29 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 7 SO on 7 hits through 6 IP against the Seattle Mariners.

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-40 record overall and have a home record of 25-14. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Rangers on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .688 OPS. Randy Vásquez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Stephen Kolek is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-3 with a 3.73 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5.2 innings pitched against the Cincinnati Reds.


Rangers vs Padres Prediction

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 46-40 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 25-14 home record. Meanwhile, the Rangers haven't looked great in their games this season with their 43-44 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL West. They have also been a terrible road team this year with their 17-25 road record. Neither team has been great lately as both are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but both of these teams have looked a lot better at home all season so that is going to give the Padres the edge in this one. Not only do the Padres have the advantage being at home, they also have the slightly better starter here and the slightly better offense too. Kolek is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he has looked good this year. He is 3-3 with a 3.73 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs. His team hasn't had a ton of success with him as they have lost 5 games in a row now with him starting, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and hasn't been giving up a lot of runs in his starts lately so he is due for a win at home. The Rangers are going with Leiter in this one and he hasn't looked great lately. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him. He is 4-5 with a 4.29 ERA this year and his team has lost 5 games in a row with him starting. All signs point to the Padres edging out the Rangers here at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Rangers Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 5, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 2 Rangers 1.
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MLB Betting Trends


Texas Rangers: 62-98 (-20.9 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 101-113 (-13.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 58-62 (-12.7 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 28-18 UNDER against NL West opponents. 

San Diego Padres: 25-14 (+4.5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 17-10 (+4.8 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 33-26 (+5.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 25-17 UNDER against AL West opponents.

Key Injuries


Texas Rangers:  T. Mahle (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. W. Langford (LF) Ten Day IL - Side. J. Pederson (1B) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Bradford (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Gray (SP) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. J. Sborz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

San Diego Padres:  R. Bergert (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. Y. Darvish (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. King (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.


Notable Quotes


“We’re just getting some timely hits. For example, we had second and third, and couldn't get them in with the first two hitters [in the fourth inning]. [Ezequiel] Duran did a great job of picking us up there. That's a big hit. Those are what wins ballgames for you. Those two-out hits, especially men on it. It's good to see the guys having some success and quality ABs up there. It’s what we need to do to get on a roll -- get those timely hits.” - Bruce Bochy after his team’s win against the Orioles in their game on Wednesday.


“Nick was great. He made big pitches, controlled counts, breaking ball was really good, fastball was where he wanted it. I liked the fact he was able to own the inner-half.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Phillies in their game on Wednesday.


Starting Lineups


Texas Rangers
Josh Smith (L) 1B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Adolis García (R) RF
Alejandro Osuna (L) CF
Jonah Heim (S) C
Jake Burger (R) DH
Billy McKinney (L) LF
Ezequiel Duran (R) 3B

San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Manny Machado (R) DH
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Jose Iglesias (R) 3B
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Martín Maldonado (R) C

Statistical Leaders


Texas Rangers
Batting Average:  Josh Smith (.283)
Hits:  Josh Smith (75)
Home Runs:  Wyatt Langford (13)
RBI:  Adolis García (49)
Stolen Bases:  Wyatt Langford (11)
Wins:  Jacob deGrom (9)
Saves:  Luke Jackson (9)
ERA:  Cole Winn (1.59)

San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.333)
Hits:  Manny Machado (95)
Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)
RBI:  Manny Machado (50)
Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (18)
Wins:  Nick Pivetta (9)
Saves:  Robert Suarez (24)
ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Managers:
Texas Rangers: Bruce Bochy (3rd season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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