Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Friday, July 4, 2025
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: MLBN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Rangers +100, Padres -120; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Rangers +100, Padres -120; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Rangers +100, Padres -120; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Texas Rangers: 43-44 (3rd place, AL West)
San Diego Padres: 46-40 (2nd place, NL West)
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Texas Rangers: 5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres: 5-5 last 10
Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Rangers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-44 record overall and have a road record of 17-25. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 26th in the MLB with a .664 OPS. Nathan Eovaldi was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Kumar Rocker is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-4 with a 6.13 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 6 SO on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Seattle Mariners.
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-40 record overall and have a home record of 25-14. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rangers on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .688 OPS. Dylan Cease was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Randy Vásquez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-4 with a 3.84 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts on 9 hits through 4.1 innings pitched against the Cincinnati Reds.
Rangers vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 46-40 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 25-14 home record. Meanwhile, the Rangers haven't looked great in their games this season with their 43-44 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL West. They have also been a terrible road team this year with their 17-25 road record. Neither team has been that hot lately, but the Padres do have the much better pitching matchup in this one and they will be able to take advantage of that at home where they have been a much better team all year. Vasquez is on the mound for the Padres and he has looked good in his starts this season. He is 3-4 with a 3.84 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts all season. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him so he will be looking to bounce back in this home start. The team has also had success with him lately, winning 2 games in a row now with him starting, and they have the slightly better offense too. The Rangers are going with Rocker in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 3-4 with a 6.13 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and the team has won 3 games in a row now with him starting too, but this is not a good game to back him on the road with one of the worst offenses in the MLB too. The Padres need a bounce back after their last series against the Phillies and this is a good game for that to come. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.
Rangers Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 4, 2025 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 4 Rangers 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Texas Rangers: 62-98 (-20.9 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 101-113 (-13.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 58-62 (-12.7 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 28-18 UNDER against NL West opponents.
San Diego Padres: 74-63 (+6.3 units) on the moneyline after 3 or more consecutive road games. 104-85 (+4.8 units) on the moneyline after a loss. 46-22 (+13.8 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25-17 UNDER against AL West opponents.
Key Injuries
Texas Rangers: T. Mahle (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. W. Langford (LF) Ten Day IL - Side. J. Pederson (1B) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Bradford (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Gray (SP) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. J. Sborz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.
San Diego Padres: R. Bergert (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. Y. Darvish (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. King (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“We’re just getting some timely hits. For example, we had second and third, and couldn't get them in with the first two hitters [in the fourth inning]. [Ezequiel] Duran did a great job of picking us up there. That's a big hit. Those are what wins ballgames for you. Those two-out hits, especially men on it. It's good to see the guys having some success and quality ABs up there. It’s what we need to do to get on a roll -- get those timely hits.” - Bruce Bochy after his team’s win against the Orioles in their game on Wednesday.
“Nick was great. He made big pitches, controlled counts, breaking ball was really good, fastball was where he wanted it. I liked the fact he was able to own the inner-half.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Phillies in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
Texas Rangers
Josh Smith (L) 1B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Adolis García (R) RF
Alejandro Osuna (L) CF
Jonah Heim (S) C
Jake Burger (R) DH
Billy McKinney (L) LF
Ezequiel Duran (R) 3B
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Manny Machado (R) DH
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Jose Iglesias (R) 3B
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Martín Maldonado (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Texas Rangers
Batting Average: Josh Smith (.283)
Hits: Josh Smith (75)
Home Runs: Wyatt Langford (13)
RBI: Adolis García (49)
Stolen Bases: Wyatt Langford (11)
Wins: Jacob deGrom (9)
Saves: Luke Jackson (9)
ERA: Cole Winn (1.59)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Bryce Johnson (.333)
Hits: Manny Machado (95)
Home Runs: Fernando Tatis (15)
RBI: Manny Machado (50)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (18)
Wins: Nick Pivetta (9)
Saves: Robert Suarez (24)
ERA: Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)
Managers:
Texas Rangers: Bruce Bochy (3rd season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)