Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Jul 11, 2025
Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Friday, July 11, 2025
Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Where to Watch:  CW33, SCHN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +108, Astros -132; Over/Under:  8 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +110, Astros -130; Over/Under:  8 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rangers +110, Astros -130; Over/Under:  8 runs

Season Record

Texas Rangers:  45-48 (4th place, AL West)
Houston Astros:  55-38 (1st place, AL West)

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Recent Form
Texas Rangers:  4-6 last 10
Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10



Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Preview and Analysis


The Rangers lost their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 2-1. They enter this game with a 45-48 record overall and have a road record of 19-29. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Astros on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Los Angeles Angels still to be played on Thursday. The Rangers lost the series opener of that series on Monday, won the 2nd game on Tuesday, and lost the 3rd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .670 OPS. Patrick Corbin is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Jack Leiter is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-6 with a 4.32 ERA this season. His team lost their last 6 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 5 SO on 5 hits through 3.2 IP against the San Diego Padres.

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-38 record overall and have a home record of 32-17. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rangers on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Brandon Walter was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Lance McCullers Jr. is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 4 walks with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers.


Rangers vs Astros Prediction

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 55-38 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL West with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 32-17 home record. Meanwhile, the Rangers haven't looked great in their games this season with their 45-48 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AL West. They haven't been a good road team either with their 19-29 road record this season. The Astros just got swept at home by the Guardians in their last series, but they are still 6-4 in their last 10 games and will be looking to bounce back against one of their weaker division opponents. They are going with McCullers in this one and he hasn't looked great this year, but he is coming off a good start. He is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA this season and the team has lost 2 games in a row with him starting, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and will be looking to have another good start here. The Rangers are going with Leiter in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 4-6 with a 4.32 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs lately. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but the team has lost 6 games in a row now with him starting and the Astros also have the much better offense to help them out here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Rangers Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 11, 2025 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Astros 8 Rangers 4.
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MLB Betting Trends


Texas Rangers: 226-208 (-6.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 103-117 (-15.5 units) on the moneyline in road games. 68-69 (-11.9 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 33-21 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.

Houston Astros: 78-56 (+4.2 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 174-138 (+6.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 168-128 (+17.7 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 33-21 UNDER when playing with a day off.

Key Injuries


Texas Rangers:  T. Mahle (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Pederson (1B) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Bradford (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Gray (SP) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. J. Sborz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Houston Astros:  J. Meyers (CF) Day To Day - Calf. L. Guillorme (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Rib. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. B. Rodgers (2B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Melton (LF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. S. Arrighetti (SP) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Ten Day IL - Hand. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. McCormick (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.


Notable Quotes


“I was running out of pitching. You saw the pitchers I was using. He's an experienced guy. He's pitched late in the ballgame. We had him out there, and of course, we had [left-hander Robert] Garcia available. We had our long guys too, but things stayed tight.” - Bruce Bochy after his team’s loss against the LA Angels in their game on Wednesday.


“We are excited for him. From Day 1 that he walked in our clubhouse, the energy he’s brought to our club, the performance on the field, the human, I couldn’t be any happier for him when we told him in there.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Guardians in their game on Wednesday.


Starting Lineups


Texas Rangers
Josh Smith (L) 3B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Adolis García (R) RF
Jonah Heim (S) DH
Wyatt Langford (R) LF
Evan Carter (L) CF
Jake Burger (R) 1B
Kyle Higashioka (R) C

Houston Astros
Isaac Paredes (R) 3B
Jake Meyers (R) CF
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Cam Smith (R) RF
Victor Caratini (S) 1B
Yainer Diaz (R) C
Cooper Hummel (S) DH
Taylor Trammell (L) LF
Mauricio Dubón (R) SS

Statistical Leaders


Texas Rangers
Batting Average:  Josh Smith (.287)
Hits:  Josh Smith (82)
Home Runs:  Wyatt Langford (14)
RBI:  Adolis García (50)
Stolen Bases:  Wyatt Langford (13)
Wins:  Jacob deGrom (9)
Saves:  Luke Jackson (9)
ERA:  Cole Winn (1.59)

Houston Astros
Batting Average:  Jeremy Peña (.322)
Hits:  Jeremy Peña (102)
Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (19)
RBI:  Jose Altuve (51)
Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)
Wins:  Framber Valdez (10)
Saves:  Josh Hader (25)
ERA:  Héctor Neris (0.00)

Managers:
Texas Rangers: Bruce Bochy (3rd season)
Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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