by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 20, 2022
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Texas -6; Texas -230, Texas Tech +195
FanDuel: Texas -6.5; Texas -225, Texas Tech +184
BetMGM: Texas -6; Texas -222, Texas Tech +180
Caesars: Texas -6.5; Texas -240, Texas Tech +196
Season record
No. 22 Texas: 2-1
Texas Tech: 2-1
We are about to get rolling into conference season in college football. This is where the fun truly begins. And if you're trying to find the right expert handicappers to get you the right picks for those games, look no further than Kyle Hunter on a 15-5-1 run since the beginning of the season. What will next week hold? Make sure to check out Kyle's thoughts on our Best Bets page, where you can get a look at the rest of our champion handicappers and get in on the action!
Texas - Texas Tech preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Texas: won 41-20 vs. UTSA
Texas Tech: lost 27-14 at No. 16 NC State
What a bounce-back weekend it was for the Texas Longhorns. Color me impressed with how they handled the UTSA Roadrunners on their home field.
What a bounce-back weekend it was for the Texas Longhorns. Color me impressed with how they handled the UTSA Roadrunners on their home field.
To be honest, I really thought at least UTSA would cover. If they weren’t going to win outright, the level of play between the two schools would’ve at least shown that UTSA is on the verge of breaking through to being the best program in Texas. That will have to wait at least a little bit.
But there’s another Texas program that might be doing much better than anticipated, and that’s what lies ahead for Texas before its first road game of the year against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who are coming off their first loss of the year.
To say that I was expecting a Texas letdown a week after losing to Alabama by a point would be an understatement. There’s no way that I could look at how Texas came so close without its top two quarterbacks and think they could rebound against one of the best teams in the country. And to Texas’ credit, the Longhorns responded well despite falling behind 17-7 in the second quarter.
Texas went on to outscore UTSA 34-3 in the final 39 minutes of the game. Bijan Robinson was tremendous as usual, rushing for 183 yards and three touchdowns, while Hudson Card didn’t need to do much with 161 yards and a touchdown. He at least outplayed UTSA star Frank Harris as he was held to 222 yards and an interception. A banner day for the Texas defense.
"I don't think our team blinked for a second," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. "We battled through the early start woes."
Credit to Sarkisian for telling everyone at the beginning of the week that he didn’t want his team to think too high or too low – the rat poison, as Nick Saban once called it – when battling back for this matchup against UTSA. And that’s exactly what happened. The defense stood tall after falling behind, Robinson carried the load, and the No. 22 Longhorns got a much-needed win.
"We needed to run the ball, clearly we had a bit of a quarterback situation going on. Sometimes when you run the ball, it doesn't happen right away. Over time it starts to break," Sarkisian said. "Right before the first play of the second half ... I just told him to run through these guys, enough with the dancing."
That rat poison comment won’t just work on UTSA. It needs to work on a Texas Tech program that has gotten off to a solid start of its own at 2-1. Following a double overtime win against Houston a couple of weeks ago, Texas Tech had a chance to put a stamp on its start by going up against the ACC’s sleeper, NC State. The Wolfpack did show that they are to be a formidable opponent, with TTU losing 27-14.
Donovan Smith threw for 214 yards and was picked off twice, with one of them returned 84 yards for a touchdown by Aydan White to put NC State up 20-0. The Texas Tech offense never got settled on the road in a hostile environment.
"We're going to face some good defenses in the Big 12," first-year Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire said. "I think we have to be better in catching all catchable balls, getting vertical when you catch it. We've got to put ourselves in good situations. ... But there's some stuff that we've got to do as a staff to put these guys in better situations."
Prediction
Texas Tech has not been good when the chips are stacked against them, just 5-13 as an underdog straight up over the past 18 instances. Even with getting as high as 6.5 points, Texas Tech just might not be ready for this Texas defense after what it did to UTSA. Of note: Texas is 71-21 since 1992 as a road favorite straight up. Texas by 14
Betting trends
Texas is 3-5 ATS in its last eight road games.
Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a win by 21 or more.
The over is 19-7 when Texas covers three or more ATS.
Texas Tech is 5-8 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Statistical leaders
Texas:
Passing: Quinn Ewers -- 359 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Bijan Robinson -- 311 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Xavier Worthy -- 162 yards
Texas Tech:
Passing: Donovan Smith -- 785 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Tahj Brooks -- 132 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Jerand Bradley -- 172 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
