Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/22/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Oct 17, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Where to watch: ABC

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Texas -6
FanDuel: Texas -6.5
BetMGM: Texas -6
Caesars: Texas -6

Season record
No. 20 Texas: 5-2 (3-1 Big 12)
No. 11 Oklahoma State: 5-1 (2-1 Big 12)

We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 8 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!

Texas - Oklahoma State preview, analysis and prediction

Last week
Texas: won 24-21 vs. Iowa State
Oklahoma State: won 43-40 (2OT) at No. 13 TCU

What a wild time if you had this game as one of your games of the week in the Big 12. But in terms of trying to figure out who has the leg up in having the best chance to catch TCU running away with this conference, it might come down to the Texas Longhorns heading to Stillwater to take on the No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys in a battle of what could be epic proportions as we know it for the immediate future of the conference.
The Longhorns have rebounded quite nicely since their 37-34 overtime loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders nearly a month ago, pulling off three straight wins with two of them in near-dominant fashion. Nothing will top the 49-0 win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, but coming back home on an emotional high and getting a win over Iowa State, 24-21, has to feel good even if it’s against the bad-luck Cyclones. Texas’ offense is still humming along averaging 36.7 points per game, but the defense continues to impress by giving up just 348 yards per game and only 18 points per contest. Now that Quinn Ewers is healthy and has looked every bit of the quarterback Steve Sarkisian would hope he’d be, Texas might be primed for a run toward the end. Ewers threw for three touchdowns while Bijan Robinson ran for 135 yards in Texas’ win over the Cyclones.
"This is completely different than last year," Robinson said. "We would have lost the game last year, in my opinion."
You could say that about a lot of Texas games this year, but they keep finding ways to win and it makes you wonder what would’ve happened had things not gone haywire in the Alabama game down the stretch. Alas, with three conference wins already and a chance to really make a statement over these next three weeks, this is a big stretch coming up for Texas.
Oklahoma State’s undefeated run came to an end over the weekend in a 43-40 double-overtime loss to the now surging TCU Horned Frogs, a game in which there is no shame in losing to the Horned Frogs at this moment. You talk about teams of destiny, this would be the one where it would fit. TCU is putting together a run that would make many question life, so it doesn’t surprise anyone that Oklahoma State wouldn’t be able to hang with them. Spencer Sanders was held to just 16 of 36 passing for 245 yards, a touchdown and an interception. The Cowboys hung around despite just 386 yards of total offense, but they’ve fallen out of the top 10 and need to start winning again in order to keep the hopes alive.
"We know that we're better than that, but I think that's where the frustration comes in," said Cowboys linebacker Mason Cobb, who had 16 tackles. "We've still got a lot more games left to play, so we've got to move on."
This game is going to come down to the quarterback who can make the fewest mistakes and be the right game manager in this situation. Both will have to rely on their running games and not turn the ball over, especially Ewers on the road.
Never discount a running game on the road. Robinson has been running rampant all year and I would expect him to have the biggest game yet to ensure a win for Texas. And honestly, Texas is made for games like this with that running back. They’ll come through. Texas by 7

Betting trends

Texas is 12-8 ATS as a favorite the last three years.

Texas is 5-10 ATS after two straight conference games the last three years.

Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three years.

Oklahoma State is 37-20 ATS since 1992 when scoring 37 points or more in two straight games.

Statistical leaders

Passing: Hudson Card -- 923 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Bijan Robinson -- 780 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Xavier Worthy -- 432 yards, 6 TD

Oklahoma State:
Passing: Spencer Sanders -- 1,639 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Dominic Richardson -- 427 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Braydon Johnson -- 398 yards, 3 TD

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Texas Longhorns - Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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