by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Oct 03, 2022
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Texas -6.5
FanDuel: Texas -5.5
BetMGM: Texas -5.5
Caesars: Texas -6.5
Season record
Texas: 3-2 (1-1 Big 12)
Oklahoma: 3-2 (0-2 Big 12)
Another week, another crazy set of circumstances in college football! Georgia almost loss, Bryce Young left but Alabama still won, etc. All the craziness, all the drama through a month into the season. What in the world are we getting next? How about starting with a 6-1-0 run from Kyle Hunter this past weekend? Our top handicapper in the college football realm had himself a very good week. What will next week have in store with a lot of shakings in the top 25 to be expected? Make sure to follow all of our champion handicappers and their picks in our Best Bets section, where you can expect more of Kyle's and others' picks to get you on the right side of winning this week at bigal.com.
Texas - Oklahoma preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Texas: won 38-20 vs. West Virginia
Oklahoma: lost 55-24 at TCU
The Red River Rivalry has never meant less than it does this year. And all it took was a couple of weeks for the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns to just fall into obscurity. Let’s not get it twisted: This rivalry is still one of the best in college football and will always have a place for those who desire to be the best between these two Big 12 schools. However, the last two weeks for both of these programs have made this rivalry take a spot on the backburner. A win would get the winning team to four victories and one step closer to bowl eligibility. The loser is likely done for this year in terms of being relevant.
The Red River Rivalry has never meant less than it does this year. And all it took was a couple of weeks for the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns to just fall into obscurity. Let’s not get it twisted: This rivalry is still one of the best in college football and will always have a place for those who desire to be the best between these two Big 12 schools. However, the last two weeks for both of these programs have made this rivalry take a spot on the backburner. A win would get the winning team to four victories and one step closer to bowl eligibility. The loser is likely done for this year in terms of being relevant.
Let’s start with Texas, coming off a 38-20 win at home against West Virginia. The Longhorns were riding high a few weeks ago despite losing by 1 point to Alabama. Texas responded with a shocking 3-score win over UTSA, only to falter 37-34 in overtime to Texas Tech. Texas responded this past weekend with the win over the Mountaineers. Hudson Card was efficient, as the Longhorns quarterback went 21 of 27 for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Bijan Robinson added 101 yards and a score, while top target Xavier Worthy caught seven passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns.
"I think over the past few weeks he's earned a lot of respect," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said about Card. "To me, and our team, it doesn't feel like we are playing with a backup."
Quinn Ewers is supposedly still the quarterback and he will be evaluated as he battles through a clavicle injury. Nevertheless, Texas has a good thing going with no matter who is under center. The problem becomes consistency for that to put Texas over the top. At some point, Sarkisian is going to have to make a decision and I do not want to wonder what that will take over the next few weeks to get there. But Texas hasn’t beaten Oklahoma in a hot minute. If there was ever a time for that to change, it might be now.
Meanwhile, if you’re an Oklahoma supporter, it has been absolute hell from the moment you returned home from Nebraska. It’s like the curse of Scott Frost somehow transferred its way from Lincoln to Norman, and now the Sooners are no longer ranked after two horrendous losses in conference play. First it started with Kansas State by a touchdown, and then last week losing 55-24 to TCU was probably one of the more ridiculous losses from that program in a long time. And to make matters worse, Dillon Gabriel is hurt and who knows if he’ll be able to go for this one? Both Gabriel and Davis Beville went 7 of 16, but Beville had only 50 yards.
"We're not very good obviously right now," Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said. "We've got a lot to get better at. We've got to give them answers and we've got to help get them better quickly."
Find me the last time Texas was favored by as much as a touchdown against Oklahoma. Probably would have to go back to the Vince Young or Colt McCoy days to find that one out. But Texas is 14-5 straight up in its last 19 as a favorite and are 20-10 straight up as a favorite on a neutral field. Oklahoma has only been an underdog one time in the last three years. The result? They lost that game, but covered.
Prediction
I don’t trust Oklahoma one bit, but if there was a game Venables could get his guys ready for, it’s this one. I’m likely going to regret this one as the week goes on, but give me Oklahoma by a touchdown. Oklahoma by 7
Betting trends
Texas is 11-7 ATS as a favorite in its last 18 games.
Texas is 14-15 ATS in its last 29 as a favorite on a neutral field.
Oklahoma is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 overall.
Oklahoma is 13-3 ATS after playing two consecutive home games.
Statistical leaders
Texas:
Passing: Hudson Card -- 923 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Bijan Robinson -- 515 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Xavier Worthy -- 331 yards, 3 TD
Oklahoma:
Passing: Dillon Gabriel -- 1,215, 11 TD
Rushing: Eric Gray -- 460 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Marvin Mims -- 438 yards, 3 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
