by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Nov 16, 2023
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 18, 2023
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texas -7.5, ISU +7.5; Over/Under: 47 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texas -7.5, ISU +7.5; Over/Under: 47 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texas -7.5, ISU +7.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Texas Longhorns: 9-1 (6-1) (1st place, Big 12)
Iowa State Cyclones: 6-4 (5-2) (5th place, Big 12)
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Recent Form
Texas Longhorns: won their last game on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs 29-26.
Iowa State Cyclones: won their last game on the road against the BYU Cougars 45-13.
Texas Longhorns vs Iowa State Cyclones Preview and Analysis
Texas is entering this game with a 9-1 record overall and they have a 6-1 record in their conference games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against TCU 29-26. Quinn Ewers was the starting QB and he completed 22/33 passes for 317 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jonathon Brooks led the team in rushing yards with 104 and 2 TDs. Xavier Worthy led the receivers with 137 receiving yards on 10 receptions. Jaylan Ford led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while T'Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy II, and DeAngelo Carter each led the defense in sacks with 1. Terrance Brooks came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Iowa State is entering this game with a 6-4 record overall and they have a 5-2 record in their conference games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against BYU 45-13. Rocco Becht was the starting QB and he completed 15/23 passes for 203 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Abu Sama III led the team in rushing yards with 110 and 2 TDs. Jaylin Noel led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 2 TDs. Beau Freyler led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Caleb Bacon led the defense in sacks with 1. Jamison Patton and Will McLaughlin each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
Texas vs Iowa State Prediction
The current betting odds have Iowa State listed as a 7.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Iowa State is only 6-4 overall this season but they have looked a lot better in conference play with their 5-2 conference record. They have been playing a lot better in their games lately and they are going to have some momentum coming back home after a big win against BYU last week. Texas has also looked really good all season with their 9-1 record overall and their 6-1 record in conference games. Their only loss was against Oklahoma but they have won every game since then as they are looking to get to the Big 12 Championship. Texas hasn't looked that great in their games lately though as they are still winning their games but their wins are coming in much closer scores now. They barely beat TCU by 3 points on the road in their last game after taking an early lead too and they are going to struggle in their 2nd road game in a row with the way Iowa State has been improving lately. Texas is also ranked inside the top 10 in the country so Iowa State is going to bring their best effort at home to try and knock off this ranked Texas team. The best way to place a bet here is on Iowa State to cover the spread in this game.
Texas Iowa State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 18, 2023 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Texas 34 Iowa State 30.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Texas Longhorns: 16-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. 8-4 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less. 14-7 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. 7-1 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.
Iowa State Cyclones: 3-10 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 4-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 22-13 UNDER in all games. 9-2 UNDER as an underdog. 13-5 UNDER in home games. 17-6 UNDER off a road win against a conference rival.
Key Injuries
Texas Longhorns: J. Catalon (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Brooks (RB) out for season - Knee.
Iowa State Cyclones: D. Hanika (TE) out for season - Poss. Suspension.
Notable Quotes
“Quinn, coming off of an injury, I don’t know if I could have asked for much more. I thought he stood in the pocket. I thought he made some throws in some critical moments. ... I’m happy that he was able to play the way he did.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against TCU in their last game.
"I think you just want to win every game you play, to be honest with you. I think that’s one of the things that for us, we’ve won a lot of great football games here, especially over Jarrod’s time. And to be winning football games in college football is really hard to do. And it doesn’t matter who it is – and you guys that cover us – it’s not easy. And it takes 60 minutes of your best no matter who you are playing, where you are playing, or what it looks like." - Matt Campbell on his team’s upcoming game against Texas this week.
Starting Lineups
Texas Longhorns
WR Worthy, Xavier
WR Mitchell, Adonai
WR Whittington, Jordan
TE Sanders, Ja'Tavion
QB Murphy, Maalik
RB Brooks, Jonathon
Iowa State Cyclones
WR Higgins, Jayden
WR Bitter, Aidan
WR Noel, Jaylin
TE Dean, Easton
TE Klotz, Stevo
QB Becht, Rocco
RB Norton, Cartevious
Statistical Leaders
Texas Longhorns
Passing: Q. Ewers (2232)
Rushing: J. Brooks (1139)
Receiving: X. Worthy (757)
Touchdowns: J. Brooks (11)
Iowa State Cyclones
Passing: R. Becht (2121)
Rushing: E. Sanders (467)
Receiving: J. Higgins (610)
Touchdowns: J. Noel (4)
Coaches:
Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (3rd season)
Iowa State Cyclones: Matt Campbell (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
