Texas Longhorns vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/04/2024

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Monday, March 4, 2024

Venue:  Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texas +7, Baylor -7; Over/Under:  146 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texas +7, Baylor -7; Over/Under:  146 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texas +6.5, Baylor -6.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

Texas Longhorns:  19-10 (8-8) (8th place, Big 12)

Baylor Bears:  21-8 (10-6) (3rd place, Big 12)

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Texas Longhorns:  3-2  last 5

Baylor Bears:  3-2  last 5

Texas is entering this game with a 19-10 record overall, an 8-8 record in conference games, and they are 4-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their last game. Dylan Disu led the team in points per game in that game with 17 while Chendall Weaver was next on the team with 16. Dylan Disu and Tyrese Hunter each led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Brock Cunningham led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 47.1% from the field, 36% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 75.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.4 PPG against them. Texas has an ATS record of 11-16 this season and their O/U record is 17-12.

Baylor is entering this game with a 21-8 record overall, a 10-6 conference record, and they are 14-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Kansas Jayhawks in their last game. RayJ Dennis led the team in points in that game with 19 while Jayden Nunn was next on the team with 18. RayJ Dennis led the team in assists with 10 in that game while Ja'Kobe Walter led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 55.6% from the field, 41.2% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 81.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70.9 PPG against them. Baylor has an ATS record of 17-9-2 this season and their O/U record is 15-13.

The current betting odds have Baylor listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Baylor has looked really good in their games this season with their 21-8 record overall which has them ranked inside the top 25 teams in the country. They have also looked good in the Big 12 this season with their 10-6 conference record which has them near the top, but they have looked a lot better on their home court in a lot of those games. They have a 14-2 home record this season and just beat Kansas there in their last game too. Meanwhile, Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 19-10 record overall, but they have struggled a lot in the Big 12 with their 8-8 conference record which has them in the middle of the pack. They haven't looked good in their road games either with their 4-5 road record. Both of these teams haven't been at their best lately with 3-2 records in each of their last 5 games, but both also have some momentum here coming into this one with 2 wins in a row. Baylor is going to have the edge in this game with the home advantage but they have also been the more consistent team all season, specifically with their offense, and they will be able to take advantage of the road troubles Texas has had all season. The best way to place a bet here is on Baylor to cover the spread in this game. 

Texas Baylor Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Monday, March 4, 2024 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Baylor 86 Texas 70.

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Texas Longhorns: 2-8 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more. 1-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. 2-8 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 13-5 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5. 12-4 OVER against conference opponents. 26-17 OVER off a home win.

Baylor Bears: 14-5 ATS as a favorite. 11-6 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 8-3 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. 22-15 OVER after 3 straight games outrebounding the opponent by 6 or more. 16-8 OVER in a neutral court game where the total is 145 to 149.5.

Texas Longhorns:  None.

Baylor Bears:  L. Love (G) Ques Mon - Knee. Y. Ndjonga (F) out for season - Knee.

“We’ve got postseason experience, and we’ve got guys who understand this time of year. We have a really high ceiling.” - Rodney Terry after his team’s win against OK State in their last game on Saturday.

“Once we got a couple of stops, we were able to push it in transition.” - Scott Drew after his team’s win against Kansas in their last game on Saturday. 

M. Abmas 

B. Cunningham 

T. Hunter 

D. Mitchell 

K. Shedrick

J. Bridges 

R. Dennis 

Y. Missi 

J. Nunn 

J. Walter

PPG: D. Disu (16.8)

APG: M. Abmas (4.3)

Reb/G: D. Mitchell (8.2)

PPG: J. Walter (14.7)

APG: R. Dennis (6.8)

Reb/G: Y. Missi (5.6)

Coaches:

Texas Longhorns: Rodney Terry (2nd season)

Baylor Bears: Scott Drew (21st season)