Texas Longhorns vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/04/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Venue:  Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texas +7.5, Arkansas -7.5; Over/Under:  167.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texas +7.5, Arkansas -7.5; Over/Under:  167.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texas +7.5, Arkansas -7.5; Over/Under:  167.5 points

Texas Longhorns:  18-11 (9-7) (7th place, SEC)

Arkansas Razorbacks:  21-8 (11-5) (3rd place, SEC)

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Texas Longhorns:  3-2  last 5

Arkansas Razorbacks:  3-2  last 5

Texas is entering this game with an 18-11 record overall, a 9-7 record in conference games, and they are 4-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Texas A&M Aggies in their last game. Tramon Mark led the team in points in that game with 23 while Jordan Pope was next on the team with 17. Matas Vokietaitis and Tramon Mark each led the team in assists with 2 in that game while Dailyn Swain led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 43.5% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 93.8% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 84.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 75.5 PPG against them. Texas has an ATS record of 16-12 this season and their O/U record is 17-11.

Arkansas is entering this game with a 21-8 record overall, an 11-5 conference record, and they are 15-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Florida Gators in their last game. Billy Richmond led the team in points in that game with 22 while Darius Acuff Jr. was next on the team with 17. Darius Acuff Jr. led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Malique Ewin led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 40% from the field, 30.8% from 3-point range, and 54.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 89.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 79.7 PPG against them. Arkansas has an ATS record of 19-10 this season and their O/U record is 16-13.

The current betting odds have Arkansas listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Arkansas has looked really good in their games this season with their 21-8 record overall and their 11-5 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have looked great on their home court too with their 15-1 home record this season. Meanwhile, Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 18-11 record overall and their 9-7 conference record which has them in the top half of the SEC. They haven't been a great road team though with their 4-5 road record this year. Texas is off a win over Texas A&M in their last one and they are 3-2 in their last 5 games too, but they haven't looked nearly as good in their road games this year and they are going to get a real test against one of the best teams in the conference here. Arkansas is also 3-2 in their last 5 games, but their 2 losses were against the only 2 teams ahead of them in the SEC. One of those was a really close game too while the other was not, but Florida has been crushing opponents lately as they are looking like the clear best team in the SEC and Arkansas is going to be looking to bounce back in a big way at home after such a bad road loss. Arkansas has looked a lot better in their home games lately though and they have been crushing opponents there by double digits. This is a bad situation for a Texas team off a big rivalry win on the road, now going on the road again against one of the best teams in the conference who is looking to bounce back from a brutal loss. Look for Arkansas to bounce back here and roll over Texas in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on Arkansas to cover the spread in this game. 

Texas Arkansas Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Wednesday, March 4, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Arkansas 86 Texas 67.

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Texas Longhorns: 2-8 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 3-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 21-35 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins. 8-4 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 17-8 OVER off a win against a conference rival.

Arkansas Razorbacks: 6-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 6-3 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more. 16-10 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 26-11 OVER as a home favorite or pick. 27-12 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Texas Longhorns:  L. Traore (F) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Arkansas Razorbacks:  K. Knox (F) Questionable - Undisclosed.

"I will tell you that it's one of them. Anytime you can go on the road in this league and win this late in the season, it means more. So, you have to feel really good about accomplishing it, simply because it's so difficult to do." - Sean Miller after his team’s win against Texas A&M in their last game. 

“Look, I’ve done this so long, stuff happens. I told them, ‘We had a great February. We got two games left. Let’s get out of here and go.’ I said it wasn’t my team. This is not the team I’ve been coaching. But I did tell some guys, ‘You got to do some soul searching and be honest with yourself. Why did you play the way you played?’ Not a whole lot else you can do.” - John Calipari after his team’s loss against Florida in their last game. 

C. Heide 

T. Mark 

J. Pope 

D. Swain 

M. Vokietaitis

D. Acuff 

T. Brazile 

K. Knox 

N. Pringle 

D. Wagner

PPG: Dailyn Swain (17.7)

APG: Dailyn Swain (3.1)

Reb/G: Dailyn Swain (7.4)

PPG: Darius Acuff Jr. (22)

APG: Darius Acuff Jr. (6.2)

Reb/G: Trevon Brazile (7.1)

Coaches:

Texas Longhorns: Sean Miller (1st season)

Arkansas Razorbacks: John Calipari (2nd season)