Texas A&M Aggies vs. Missouri Tigers Picks and Game Preview -- 10/16/2021

by Big Al Staff

Time: Noon ET, October 16, 2021
Venue: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, MO
Where to watch: SEC Network

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Texas A&M -8.5
BetMGM: Texas A&M -9
Caesars: Texas A&M -9

Season record
No. 21 Texas A&M: 4-2 (1-2 SEC)
Missouri: 3-3 (0-2 SEC)

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Texas A&M - Missouri preview and analysis


Recent form
Texas A&M: won 41-38 vs. former No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 9
Missouri: won 48-35 vs. North Texas on Oct. 9

Well, that's one way to welcome yourself back to the top-25.

I still have no idea how the Texas A&M Aggies won last week. All I saw was kickoffs returned for touchdowns, weird field goals hooking from left to right, and the entire population of College Station run onto a field.

The Aggies did the thing by knocking off the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide 41-38 last Saturday, putting themselves back in the top-25 at No. 21. Now it's about building off the biggest win of the year for A&M, as they hit the road for the first time this season to face the Missouri Tigers.

Technically speaking, it is the first of only three road games for A&M this season. They did face the Colorado Buffaloes at Mile High Stadium in Denver (listed as a neutral site) and faced the Arkansas Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium.

But in the midst of those six games, this was by far the most impressive showing for backup quarterback Zach Calzada on the biggest stage. Calzada threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns as the Aggies jumped out to a 14-point lead in the third quarter.

Alabama roared back as it always does, taking a 38-31 lead with five minutes remaining. Calzada hit Ainias Smith for a 25-yard touchdown two minutes later to tie it at 38. Seth Small's 28-yard field goal that had the greatest hook of all time won the game and put the Aggies to 4-2.

"Our football team is learning to play against other great football teams and have success," said A&M coach Jimbo Fisher. "That's what matters to me."

The Aggies were outgained 522-379 and only lost the turnover battle 2-1. Special teams made the difference. Small's two field goals and Devon Achane's 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown were a mere part of it. Every scoring drive from A&M lasted no greater than eight plays; only one drive lasted eight and that was the final drive of the game.

Can that carry over to Mizzou? The Tigers are coming off a 13-point win against the North Texas Mean Green that saw running back Tyler Badie explode for 209 yards and two touchdowns. The Tigers survived the offensive barrage from North Texas (493 yards) by committing three turnovers, including a pick six from Mekhi Wingo.

Tigers quarterback Connor Bazelak threw for 168 yards and two touchdowns, despite going 22 of 33 from the field.

Prediction


Mizzou's offense has shown signs of hanging tough, but that defense has been atrocious by allowing 35 points in three straight games including 62 to Tennessee. A&M may not be able to put up 41 again, but the defense will do its part and the offense converts on enough touchdowns for an easy cover. Texas A&M by 17

Betting trends


Texas A&M is 17-3 straight up in its last 20 as a favorite.

Texas A&M is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 following three straight conference games.

Missouri is 0-6 ATS this season.

Missouri is 3-11 ATS after playing a home game.

Statistical leaders


Texas A&M:
Passing: Zach Calzada -- 1,029 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Isaiah Spiller -- 491 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Ainias Smith -- 285 yards, 4 TD

Missouri:
Passing: Connor Bazelak -- 1,690 yards, 12 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Tyler Badie -- 667 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Keke Chism -- 288 yards, 1 TD

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