Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/1/2022

Time: 4 p.m. ET

Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS

Where to watch: SEC Network

DraftKings: Mississippi State -4

FanDuel: Mississippi State -3.5

BetMGM: Mississippi State -3.5

Caesars: Mississippi State -4

No. 17 Texas A&M: 3-1 (1-0 SEC)

Mississippi State: 3-1 (0-1 SEC)

Texas A&M: won 23-21 vs. No. 10 Arkansas

Mississippi State: won 45-14 vs. Bowling Green

After coming up short against Appalachian State a couple of weeks ago, it would appear that the Texas A&M Aggies have found their groove again with two tremendous wins. First was against Miami on Nov. 17, winning 17-9 at home and showing the Aggies’ defense may be better than we thought. A&M followed that with a mild upset over Arkansas, 23-21 in AT&T Stadium to move to 3-1 and also record its first conference win of the season.

It wasn’t the prettiest game by any stretch for the Aggies. Quarterback Max Johnson didn’t play all that well with just 151 yards and a touchdown, but the star of the show was the defense making big plays and running back Devon Achane running for 159 yards and a touchdown. The defense made the biggest play of the game with stripping Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson at the goal line and turning that into a scoop and score the other way for a touchdown.

“We’re by far not close to where we need. We have to fix some self-inflicted wounds, got to clean things up,” A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said. “But we beat two good football teams not playing very well, not at the top of our game, but playing well at times and still competing and making plays when we had to, and it's very encouraging.”

And that’s 100 percent true. I don’t think we can look at A&M right now and say that it’s back. They’re a good team with a strong defense, which was the culture built at the time when Fisher was at Florida State. It’s a talented team that can win both ways, whether it be scoring or defense. But when you look at the recent run of form from Texas A&M, it can be lined up with the best teams in the SEC. The Aggies have won 20 of their last 26 spanning over the last three seasons and have also done a great job not turning the ball over. When they don’t turn the ball over the prior game, the Aggies have won five straight going into this weekend’s matchup.

But despite those two ranked victories, Texas A&M comes into this weekend’s conference matchup as an underdog, likely because the offense hasn’t impressed as of late, and we can’t blame them.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are another one of those teams where we’re not really sure where they stand a month into the season. Losing to LSU a couple of weeks ago was not really the best gauge of things, considering we’re not even sure where LSU is right now. But coming back with an emphatic home win over Bowling Green to the tune of 45-14 last week shows this offense might be on the right track. Will Rogers had a tremendous game throwing for 409 yards and tying a school record six touchdowns against the now 1-3 Falcons, so take that how you will. But it shows how talented Rogers is when he’s clicking like that.

“I think it’s a good game for everybody,” Rogers said. “I think we bounced back well from what we did last week. I think it was key that we came out and started fast. I still think there are some things that we can work on so we need to be perfect in everything that we do.”

Head coach Mike Leach liked the tempo his team displayed, and it looked like a crisp movement that there hasn’t been a lot of at MSU since Leach took over. That kind of performance bodes well for the Bulldogs if they hope to escape with a win over a ranked A&M team. The Bulldogs have won 8 of their last 13 when favored and are 6-2 straight up in their last eight as a home favorite. Those are odds you’ll take with a line that small.

I don’t want to sip the Kool-Aid just yet for the Bulldogs, but there’s something to like with that group. At home, following a tough lesson against LSU, I like Mississippi State to pull off the mild upset and get the win to continue a crowded SEC. Mississippi State by 10

Texas A&M is 20-41 ATS as a road underdog since 1992.

Texas A&M is 8-19 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

Texas A&M is 7-8 ATS off an under in its last 15.

The under is 7-12 in Mississippi State's last 19 conference games.

Mississippi State is 19-25 ATS off a win by 28 or more since 1992.

Passing: Haynes King -- 461 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT

Rushing: Devon Achane -- 355 yards, 3 TD

Receiving: Ainias Smith -- 291 yards, 2 TD

Passing: Will Rogers -- 1,386 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT

Rushing: Dillon Johnson -- 234 yards

Receiving: Caleb Ducking -- 258 yards, 5 TD