Game Time: 7:00 PM  ET, Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

Venue: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  NL

Caesars:  Spread: 

VegasInsider:  Spread: 

WynnBet: Spread: NL 

 

Opening line Tennessee -11

Tennessee:  10-4 in conference (SEC), 19-7 overall

Missouri: 4-10 in conference (SEC), 10-17 overall

An SEC college basketball matchup.  A pillar of the SEC will take on a post hole. When nearly any college sports fans hear “Tennessee vs Missouri”... they immediately think football… and how much it doesn’t matter since neither team is Alabama or Auburn.  When they hear that it is basketball… they still all think of how much it doesn’t matter since neither team is Kentucky or LSU.  This year is different.  Tennessee is hanging in there in the conference basketball play.  Tennessee has a roster that can hang with most of college basketball.  Missouri has little or nothing.  In a rare basketball season where LSU, Florida, Texas A & M, and Vanderbilt are putting up a poor hoops showing… the Tigers are worse.  Vastly worse.  We can already expect the straight up result of this game will be a win for Tennessee… the real purpose of this preview is to find out if they will or will not cover the spread?... Bettors love these clear matchups where the winner is most likely A over B… but that is exactly why the point spread is there.  Let’s look at the numbers and see if this game is a great betting opportunity. 

The Tennessee Volunteers have won 8 of their last ten games.  They are 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The two losses were to the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas Longhorns… both those losses came on their home court.  They are 6 Under, 3 Over, and 1 Push on the O/U line.  A result that reveals the very strong defense that the Volunteers put on the floor.  Leading scorer Santiago Vescovi nets 13.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 3.2 apg… as he leads this squad as a guard.  That is not excellent scoring but it is OK… the excellence is how the team shuts down others on the defensive end.  The team is pulling together to get over the season ending ankle-injury suffered by leading rebounder 6’8 Forward Olivier Nkamhoua… but at only 5.6 rpg… and that since they keep winning?... It’s clear the rebounds are gathered by a united team and not dependent on any one player.  The Volunteers are not great shooters, actually landing at average or slightly below average in most shooting categories.  So they will need strong defensive performances to cover spreads… not huge offensive eruptions.

The Missouri Tigers have won just 2 of their last ten games.  The SEC is running roughshod over them.  They strike fear in the hearts of no one playing in the SEC.  They are 6-4 ATS during that stretch as they benefit from large point spreads for the most part…. Even against other bad teams like getting 4.5 against Mississippi State.  Leading scorer 6’7 Forward Kobe Brown simply does not play like the actual Kobe.  He’s a fine player for 12.4 ppg and 7.9 rpg… but if he wants any Mamba mentality he will need to learn exactly where the right position to be in on defense is.  Guards Javon Pickett, Jarron Coleman, and Dajuan Gordon have yet to establish a leader… and therefore have no clear assist leader.  No matter what level of basketball your team plays on… if you want them to win games they need a set-up floor general or a clear high level scorer running the team… if you settle for 3 similar average players you get 4-10 in conference results.  Mizzou’s defense isn’t exceptional.  They are truly struggling in the SEC… and they would struggle in the Pac-12, or the Big 12 or the Big 10 or the ACC… do you get it yet. 

Al McMordie CASHED Loyola Maryland over Lehigh yesterday, and is now 67-42 his last 109 in Basketball. Here, pick up Big Al's NCAA Basketball Conference Underdog of the Month, and BURY your Book on Monday…. And come back for Tuesday picks. Let’s beat your book and build that bank roll!  Don't miss out! Get Big Al’s pick!!  It's available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. Also don’t miss Monday’s picks!!  All your NCAA basketball needs for the entire college basketball season!  All your needs in any sport for that matter! 

Tennessee is 19-7 on the season, but 15-11 ATS.  They have logged 11 Overs and 15 Unders.  They are 4-5 in road games.

Missouri is 10-17 on the season, but 13-13 ATS.  They have notched 12 Overs and 14 Unders.  They are 7-7 in home games.

The Volunteers are 123rd in scoring with 73.4 ppg, 82nd in rebounds with 34.1 per game, and 38th in AST/TO ratio 1.3.  They are a high quality defensive team as they rank 30th while holding opponents to 62.9 ppg… not an easy thing to do in the SEC.

The Tigers are 311th in scoring with 65.0 ppg, 228th in rebounds with 312.4 per game, and 302nd AST/TO 0.8.  On defense they rank 217th while giving up an average of 70.1 ppg.  Missouri really suffers from poor ball handling and passing.  The three guard lineup simply does not work.  They need to find a ball handler on campus and put him at point guard while going with 3-4 big men around that guy. The season is lost… the mission should be to improve the AST/TO ratio and see if you can’t get a better result.

Our prediction for Tuesday, February 22nd is…  Tennessee 69 - Mizzou 59

Tennessee will get the win.  If your book tries to push a double digit spread on you… walk away from the bet.  If you can find any spread from 6-8… put it on Tennessee.  The line opened at Tennessee -11… too rich for basketball. The Under would seem a safe bet since a poor scoring but good defensive team will be playing a bad scoring, bad ball control team.  Look for Tennessee to keep the pace slow and methodical.  Bet the Under. If the spread is double digit and you want to then bet Mizzou to cover.  Check out the betting trends for confirmation.

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Missouri is 67-44 ATS versus better teams on their home floor since 1997.

Tennessee is 95 UNDER, 65 OVER versus poor defensive teams since 1997.

Mizzou is 8-1 ATS in home games after playing as an underdog this season.

Mizzou is 59 Under and 35 Over after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1997.

Tennessee: F Olivier Nkamhoura (ankle) Out

Missouri: F Yaya Keita (knee) Out for season ** G Anton Brookshire (wrist) Out indefinitely ** F Jordan Wilmore (back) Out indefinitely

Volunteers: Kennedy Chandler, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Santiago Vescovi, Josiah-Jordan James, Uros Plavsic

Tigers: Javon Pickett, Jarron Coleman, Dajuan Gordon, Trevon Brazile, Kobe Brown

Volunteers

Points: Santiago Vescovi 13.5

Assists: Kennedy Chandler 4.8

Rebounds: Olivier Nkamhoua 5.6

Steals: Kennedy Chandler 2.3

Blocks: Olivier Nkamhoua 1.1

Tigers

Points: Kobe Brown 12.4

Assists: Jarron Coleman 3.0

Rebounds: Kobe Brown 7.9

Steals: Kobe Brown 1.3

Blocks: Trevon Brazile 1.9

Tennessee: Rick Barnes. Formerly of Texas… still doing well.

Missouri: Cuonzo Martin