by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Sep 23, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET, Sept. 25, 2021
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Florida -18.5; O/U 63; Florida -1250, Tennessee +750
BetMGM: Florida -19; O/U 63; Florida -1250, Tennessee +800
Caesars: Florida -18.5; O/U 63; Florida -1100, Tennessee +700
Season record
Tennessee: 2-1
Florida: 2-1 (0-1 SEC)
Team Del Genio was a PERFECT 4-0 in all-sports on Saturday to further a 9 of 11 (82%) HOT STREAK this week, WINNING their 25* NCAA-F Pac-12 Game of the Month with USC and their 25* NCAA-F Saturday TV Total of the Month with the ASU/BYU under! Catch Del Genio’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Tennessee - Florida preview and analysis
Recent form
Tennessee: won 56-0 vs. Tennessee Tech on Sept. 18
Florida: lost 31-29 vs. No. 1 Alabama on Sept. 18
After a near upset of the Alabama Crimson Tide at home, we like the Florida Gators to keep this positive momentum going against the Tennessee Volunteers in Gainesville on Saturday.
Florida had everything go right for them against the Crimson Tide last Saturday. Quarterback Emory Jones played well in the passing game, despite one interception, and the running game nearly tripled the output of Alabama’s ground attack (245-91).
Alas, much like nearly every week for Alabama, the Tide rolled and found a way. UF nearly rallied from a 21-3 deficit but couldn’t overcome Bryce Young’s three touchdowns and the Alabama defense showing up at the right place and right time.
It was Jones’ best game as Florida’s starting quarterback by a country mile. Jones totaled 272 yards and a rushing touchdown, but not enough to pull off the stunner.
But the Gators are facing a Tennessee team they’ve beaten 15 of the last 16 meetings while also 11-5 against the spread. Florida only won by 10 last season due to two garbage-time touchdowns but controlled the game throughout. Much of the same should be expected on Saturday.
The Vols are coming off a rather easy 56-0 win over Tennessee Tech, a much-needed response after a blown opportunity against the Pittsburgh Panthers at home. With incumbent starting quarterback Joe Milton still hurt, Hendon Hooker threw for 199 yards and three touchdowns, while also running for one along with 64 yards on the ground.
Prediction
Tennessee has only allowed 54 rushing yards on average through three games, but this is going to be a matchup the Volunteers haven’t dealt with before. And if there’s a chance the Vols can run on this defense, just ask Alabama. Gators by 28
Betting trends
Tennessee is 4-9 in its last 13 as a road underdog straight up, but 6-7 against the spread.
The under is 9-2 in the last 11 Tennessee games where they committed at least one turnover.
Florida is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games following a loss of three points or fewer.
Florida is 7-1 ATS in games following stretches of winning two out of three games.
Players to watch
Tennessee: If Hooker is going to throw the ball more and do well at it, it may be imperative to get the receivers going. One of those could be tight end Jacob Warren. He’s third on the Vols with 69 yards, but he has two touchdowns this season.
Florida: After sitting out Saturday with a hamstring injury, it could be the return of quarterback Anthony Richardson to the field for the Gators. Richardson has split time with Jones, but in addition to being the better passer, Richardson leads the Gators in rushing with 275 yards on 11 carries and two touchdowns.
Key injuries
Tennessee: QB Joe Milton III (lower body, questionable)
Florida: QB Anthony Richardson (hamstring, questionable)
Statistical leaders
Tennessee:
Passing: Hendon Hooker -- 392 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Tyron Evans -- 161 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Velus Jones Jr. -- 96 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Theo Jackson -- 25 tackles, 1.5 sacks
Florida:
Passing: Emory Jones -- 459 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Anthony Richardson -- 275 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Jacob Copeland -- 200 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Zachary Carter -- 3 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
