by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Jan 05, 2023Winner wins AFC South, loser eliminated
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Where to watch: ESPN/ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Jaguars -6; Jaguars -255, Titans +215; O/U 40
FanDuel: Jaguars -6; Jaguars -275, Titans +225; O/U 39.5
BetMGM: Jaguars -6; Jaguars -250, Titans +200; O/U 40
Caesars: Jaguars -6; Jaguars -270, Titans +215; O/U 40
Season record
Titans: 7-9
Jaguars: 8-8
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Titans - Jaguars preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Titans: lost 27-13 vs. Cowboys (Thursday)
Jaguars: won 31-3 at Texans
Titans analysis
I don't know if it's a case of the actual schedule itself or the fact that the AFC South is just not that good. But it is quite amazing that despite six straight losses, the loss of their starting quarterback, and just an absolute fall from grace the likes of which we have not seen in a long time, the Tennessee Titans still have a chance to win this division and I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing yet.
Let's just call it what it is. The Titans have been the favorites in this division for the last few years. They have been the class of this division. They are a team that was one win away from reaching the Super bowl not too long ago, and it wasn't that long ago when they were the top overall team in the AFC. All of that being said, the Titans have completely fallen off over these last six weeks. And I don't necessarily believe that one more loss will be the end of the Mike Vrabel era, but firing the general manager first is a step that says that everyone is on the hot seat.
And now you have to expect Tennessee to go on the road, with a quarterback in Joshua Dobbs who has potential but is completely unproven. You are trusting him over the rookie quarterback that you are trying to convert into a passer, and that is not Malik Willis' fault. you have to hope that you're top star running back Derrick Henry is healthy enough to carry the load because you are not going to put all of this pressure on a quarterback who has played one career start. And you're asking this group to go on the road with a division title on the line of a six game losing streak and asked them to win? Not to mention, the Titans are 0-4-2 against the spread in their last six. I don't trust this team as far as I can throw them.
Jaguars analysis
This team on the other hand, I trust them a whole lot. What the Jacksonville Jaguars have been able to do is truly remarkable. You have to go back to the beginning of the year when they were in the first place in the division through the first four games and then they completely fell off a Cliff. But thanks to the Titans going full kamikaze, that has opened the door for the Jaguars to take advantage and indeed they have by winning five of their last six, covering in five of their last six, and putting themselves in position to win a division title and have Trevor Lawrence finally take that next step as to being a top quarterback in this league.
Now I'm not going to fully crowned the Jaguars just yet. But to have them in a position where they can host a playoff game in Doug Pederson's first season is quite remarkable. There have been a lot of great stories around the league this year, and I'm not sure we have even talked about the Jaguars yet. I don't think we've talked enough about the fact that Lawrence is closing in only 4000 yard season in which he would become just the third Jacksonville quarterback ever to achieve that feat. I don't think we've talked enough about how Travis Etienne has become a lead back for this group with his 1100 yards and five touchdowns. I don't think we've talked enough about how Christian Kirk has become a number one receiver for this team and how much of a absolute steal he has become in this offense.
All of that to put up with the fact that the Jaguars defense has been incredible over the last number of weeks and this is a unit that is very much capable of winning a playoff game and really challenging one of the top teams four spot in the conference Saturday. I'm not going to go far and say that that is going to be the case but if you are sleeping on Jacksonville both on the books and on the field, I really don't know how to convince you otherwise.
Prediction
There is not much more that can be said in regards to how much Tennessee has fallen off and the fact that they have fallen off so hard I do not trust them to go on the road and win this game. There is nothing more electric than a late season playoff like crowd in Jacksonville and I truly believe that Tennessee is going to be walking in blind and will get overwhelmingly dominated against a team that is ready to take that next step. Jaguars 30, Titans 17
Betting trends
Jaguars are 2-13 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more in their history.
Titans are 3-14 ATS on the road after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 since 1992.
Jaguars are 22-10 ATS off a road division win in their history.
Statistical leaders
Titans:
Passing: Ryan Tannehill – 2,536 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Derrick Henry – 1,429 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Robert Woods – 487 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Kevin Byard – 4 INT
Jaguars:
Passing: Trevor Lawrence – 3,901 yards, 24 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Travis Etienne – 1,108 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Christian Kirk – 1,009 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Josh Allen – 6 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
