TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/03/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Venue:  United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  TCU +9.5, TTU -9.5; Over/Under:  147.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  TCU +9.5, TTU -9.5; Over/Under:  147.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  TCU +9.5, TTU -9.5; Over/Under:  147.5 points

TCU Horned Frogs:  19-10 (9-7) (7th place, Big 12)

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  22-7 (12-4) (3rd place, Big 12)

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TCU Horned Frogs:  4-1  last 5

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  4-1  last 5

TCU is entering this game with a 19-10 record overall, a 9-7 record in conference games, and they are 4-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Kansas State Wildcats in their last game. Xavier Edmonds led the team in points in that game with 15 while Tanner Toolson was next on the team with 14. Brock Harding led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Xavier Edmonds led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 42.9% from the field, 25.9% from 3-point range, and 69.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 71.9 PPG against them. TCU has an ATS record of 16-13 this season and their O/U record is 13-16.

Texas Tech is entering this game with a 22-7 record overall, a 12-4 conference record, and they are 14-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Iowa State Cyclones in their last game. Donovan Atwell led the team in points in that game with 18 while Christian Anderson was next on the team with 14. Christian Anderson led the team in assists with 7 in that game while Jaylen Petty and Josiah Moseley each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 58.5% from the field, 48.3% from 3-point range, and 54.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 72.2 PPG against them. Texas Tech has an ATS record of 16-13 this season and their O/U record is 14-15.

The current betting odds have Texas Tech listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas Tech has looked really good in their games this season with their 22-7 record overall and their 12-4 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big 12. They have looked great on their home court too with their 14-1 home record this season. Meanwhile, TCU has looked good in their games this season with their 19-10 record overall and their 9-7 conference record which has them in the top half of the Big 12. They haven't been a great road team though with their 4-5 road record this year. TCU is off a win over Kansas State in their last one and they have looked good lately. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games and they have some momentum on their side too with 3 wins in a row now. They still haven't been the best road team this season though and as good as they have looked lately, they have been beating up on a lot of the bad teams in the Big 12. They have struggled in their road games against stronger opponents though and Texas Tech has been one of the best teams in the conference all year. Texas Tech is also 4-1 in their last 5 games and they have also won 3 games in a row now, coming off a huge upset road win over Iowa State in their last one. They did lose one of their best players, but they haven't looked bad without him and manage to keep taking down ranked teams. Texas Tech has been showing lately why they can still be a contender without Toppin and they will take advantage of this TCU team that has struggled in road games all year. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas Tech to cover the spread in this game. 

TCU Texas Tech Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, March 3, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Texas Tech 80 TCU 67.

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TCU Horned Frogs: 8-2 ATS in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 29-20 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 7-2 ATS as an underdog. 8-4 OVER on the road versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 3-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 3-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 15-23 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 28-15 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5.

TCU Horned Frogs:  M. Diallo (C) Out - Knee.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  J. Toppin (F) Out - Knee. L. Hoover (F) Out - Redshirt.

“Micah got the lid off in the second half. He hit a couple of threes and it just got the lid off the basket for us.” - Jamie Dixon after his team’s win against KSU in their last game. 

“As a coach, you can give them some fight, but unless they want to fight for each other, it doesn’t work. These guys really have leaned into this adversity that we’re facing and being encouragers to each other. It’s awesome to see man. It’s the best part of this.” - Grant McCasland after his team’s win against ISU in their last game. 

X. Edmonds 

B. Harding 

L. Lelevicius 

J. Pierre 

D. Punch

C. Anderson 

D. Atwell 

J. Petty 

J. Toppin 

L. Watts

PPG: David Punch (13.9)

APG: Brock Harding (5.9)

Reb/G: Xavier Edmonds (6.6)

PPG: JT Toppin (21.8)

APG: Christian Anderson (7.7)

Reb/G: JT Toppin (10.8)

Coaches:

TCU Horned Frogs: Jamie Dixon (10th season)

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Grant McCasland (3rd season)