TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/12/2022

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Where to watch: ABC

DraftKings: Texas -7

FanDuel: Texas -7.5

BetMGM: Texas -7

Caesars: Texas -7

No. 4 TCU: 9-0 (6-0 Big 12)

No. 18 Texas: 6-3 (4-2 Big 12)

TCU: won 34-24 vs. Texas Tech

Texas: won 34-27 at No. 13 Kansas State

The TCU Horned Frogs. That’s it. That’s the statement. This team is incredible, fun to watch, and might be challenging for some fun stuff in the final month of the year. But with this group, the margin for error in the College Football Playoff race is razor thin. From a pressure standpoint, Saturday will be the toughest game they’ve had this season when they visit the Texas Longhorns in Austin.

TCU should be everyone’s favorite team right now. This is the group that has ran through the entire Big 12 and has beaten enough ranked opponents that this respect is real and validated. Because think of it this way: There are three games left: Texas, Baylor, Iowa State. Baylor is on the road. If TCU can get through at least this one and has a good shot at beating Baylor, this could be an undefeated TCU team that may storm as high as No. 2 in the playoff and get a reasonable chance at getting to the national title game.

As long as Max Duggan and Kendre Miller are playing like this, they have nothing to worry about. Duggan was a bit inaccurate in his passing, but still threw for 195 yards and two touchdowns in TCU’s 34-24 win at home over Texas Tech last week. Miller, TCU’s top rusher, ran for 158 yards and a touchdown on just 21 carries.. But there is some caution here knowing Texas Tech, a 4-win team, kept it very close and actually lead at the end of the third quarter before TCU pulled away with three touchdowns in the fourth.

"Despite everybody in the program kind of doing everything we can do to preach the one-game-at-a-time thing, I think there are times our players start to see the enormity and gravity of things," TCU coach Sonny Dykes said. "It starts with us as a coaching staff and just making sure our guys feel free."

And that’s fair. TCU hasn’t been this far into the season at an undefeated mark since 2010 when the Frogs went 13-0, won the Rose Bowl and finished No. 2 in the country. This is brand new territory for everyone involved. With how crowded the field is in the top-10, there’s again no margin for error. Tennessee is still very much in the picture; LSU is going to make a case; Oregon might be able to squeeze in if it runs the table in the Pac-12. There’s a lot more to go here.

"Our deal is let's just try to figure out a way to win a game and then at the end of the year, we'll sit down and see what we have to do," Dykes said. "I think the way we've tried to approach this has served us well."

But knowing how important this game is for TCU, it’s just as important for Texas. If TCU runs the table, they’re still gong to be in the Big 12 title game. Who the Frogs face is another matter. Texas is in a 3-way tie with Baylor and Kansas State for second place. So, realistically, TCU could have a rematch against one of their next two opponents if things bounce their way.

Texas is coming off a 34-27 win over Kansas State last week – a bounce back after losing by a touchdown to Oklahome State. For Texas, it’s all about one man: Bijan Robinson. The Texas running back ran for 209 yards and a touchdown in part of Texas running out to a 31-10 lead at halftime and eventually pulling away.

"We just understood that we're not going to lose again on the road. That's when the fight came out," said Robinson. "The defense came up clutch. They understood that they had to put the game on their backs and they had to stop them and execute and that's what they did."

Texas has gone above and beyond this year, but you always wonder what would happen if the Longhorns beat Alabama early in the year and set this up for an epic showdown. Either way, it will be fun.

Texas’ defense has come up clutch time and time again, especially at home. The Longhorns have only given up 21.8 points per game and are holding teams to under 400 yards. TCU has posted 509 yards per game and do it both through the air and ground. If TCU wins this one, there should be no more questioning. In a rare advantage, take the higher-ranked team with the points. TCU by 3

TCU is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog the last three years.

TCU is 9-10 ATS after two straight conference games the last three years.

TCU is 37-20 ATS since 1992 following a win streak of five games or more.

Texas is 13-9 ATS as a favorite the last three years.

Texas is 8-14 ATS against conference opponents the last three years.

Passing: Max Duggan -- 2,407 yards, 24 TD, 2 INT

Rushing: Kendre Miller -- 1,009 yards, 12 TD

Receiving: Quentin Johnson -- 650 yards, 4 TD

Defense: Dee Winters -- 6.5 sacks

Passing: Quinn Ewers -- 1,336 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT

Rushing: Bijan Robinson -- 1,129 yards, 12 TD

Receiving: Xavier Worthy -- 552 yards, 9 TD

Defense: Three tied -- 2 INT