TCU Horned Frogs vs Oklahoma Sooners Game Preview and Prediction - 10/16/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 16, 2021
Venue:  Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Where to Watch:  ABC


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  TCU +13.5, Oklahoma -13.5; Over/Under:  65 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  TCU +13.5, Oklahoma -13.5; Over/Under:  65 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  TCU +13.5, Oklahoma -13.5; Over/Under:  65 points

Season Record

TCU Horned Frogs:  3-2 (6th place, Big 12)
Oklahoma Sooners:  6-0 (1st place, Big 12)
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TCU Horned Frogs vs Oklahoma Sooners Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
TCU Horned Frogs:  won on the road on Oct. 9 against the Texas Tech Red Raiders 52-31.
Oklahoma Sooners:  won on a neutral site on Oct. 9 against the Texas Longhorns 55-48.

TCU Horned Frogs Analysis

TCU is coming into this game with a 3-2 record overall and they are 1-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 3rd conference matchup of the year and they are currently 1-1 in their conference games this season. They lost 1 game against the Texas Longhorns and won the other against Texas Tech in their last game. They won that game 52-31 in a game that they led the whole time. Max Duggan played alright in that one as he completed 8/10 passes for 104 yards and 1 touchdown. The ground game had a very nice day as Kendre Miller led the team in rushing with 185 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 carries while Zach Evans was right behind him with 143 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries. Blair Conwright led the receivers with 46 yards on 3 receptions in what was a quiet day for the receiving corps. TJ Carter led the defense with 12 solo tackles while Dee Winters was right behind with 9 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Khari Coleman recorded the only sack in that game for the defense while Trevius Hodges-Tomlinson came away with the only interception for them. They have scored 192 points in their first 5 games averaging 38.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 140 points against them allowing 28 PPG. Their offense is averaging 446.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 429.4 YPG.

Oklahoma Sooners Analysis

Oklahoma is coming into this college football game with a 6-0 record overall and they are 4-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 4th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are already off to a great start with a 3-0 record in their conference games this season. Their 3 wins came against the West Virginia Mountaineers, the Kansas State Wildcats and against Texas in their last game. Spencer Rattler did not play well in that game and could not really get their offense going as he completed 9/16 passes for 112 yards and 1 interception. Caleb Williams took over for him at the quarterback position in that game and he played much better as he was the spark that offense needed as he led them to a comeback completing 15/24 passes for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kennedy Brooks had a massive day on the ground in that game as he led the team in rushing with 217 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 carries. Marvin Mims led the receivers in that game with 136 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 receptions while Jeremiah Hall had 69 yards receiving on 3 catches. Brian Asamoah II led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Nik Bonitto led the defense in sacks with 1.5 while Danny Stutsman had the other 1/2 sack and Perrion Winfrey also had 1 sack in that game. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game though. They have scored 247 points in their first 6 games averaging 41.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 143 points against them allowing 23.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 472.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 356.8 YPG.


TCU vs Oklahoma Prediction

Oklahoma is coming into this game as a 13.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Oklahoma has not looked good at all this season, their offense has looked spotty in games under Rattler and their defense has been allowing way too many yards and points. TCU has a very good offense and will be able to score with ease on this bad Oklahoma defense allowing them to keep up just fine in this game. Oklahoma has not looked good in their last 4 games especially, they had a 7 point win at home over the Nebraska Cornhuskers, a 3 point win at home over WVU, a 6 point win over KSU, and a 7 point win over Texas in a game where they were trailing 21-3 right at the start and for most of the game before making a late comeback. That game took a lot of energy too so the best bet to place in this game is on TCU to cover that spread and even pull off the upset win on the moneyline.
TCU Oklahoma Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 16, 2021 (7:30 pm ET start time) is TCU 52 Oklahoma 49.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

TCU Horned Frogs: 120-117 O/U in all games. 42-32 O/U as an underdog. 23-18 O/U as a road underdog. 43-35 O/U after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game.
Oklahoma Sooners: 50-36 O/U as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 150-135 O/U in all games. 127-114 O/U as a favorite. 61-51 O/U as a home favorite. 65-54 O/U in home games. 107-87 O/U against conference opponents.

Key Injuries

TCU Horned Frogs:  B. Clark (S) out for season - Undisclosed injury. Q. Johnston (WR) Ques Sat - Knee injury. Z. Evans (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Oklahoma Sooners:  W. Washington (CB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. B. Darby (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. C. Jackson (WR) Ques Sat - Personal.

Players to Watch

TCU Horned Frogs: Kendre Miller and Zach Evans are both players to watch in this contest. Miller leads the team in touchdowns scored this season while Evans leads them in rushing yards. Both of them are coming off of massive games with over 100 yards each. TCU will be trying to control the run game in this one so look for both of these guys to get some touches and find the end zone with some big runs.
Oklahoma Sooners: Kennedy Brooks is one player to watch in this one. He leads his team in both rushing yards and in touchdowns scored this season. He is coming off of a big game where he had over 100 rushing yards and he will be looking to continue that great performance in this game. Look for him to get a lot of carries in this one as he is a playmaker for them.

Notable Quotes

"We just made a decision. ... We wanted to be very careful about it, the injury. It's not a good turf for foot injuries." - Gary Patterson on Zach Evans leaving their last game with an injury.
"Give him some clean lanes ... that was important regardless of who was playing quarterback." - Lincoln Riley on the strategy for getting Brooks going in their last game.

Starting Lineups

TCU Horned Frogs
WR Williams, Savion 
WR Johnston, Quentin 
WR Davis, Derius 
WR Conwright, Blair 
TE Ware, Carter 
QB Duggan, Max 
RB Evans, Zach 
Oklahoma Sooners
WR Haselwood, Jadon 
WR Woods II, Michael 
WR Mims, Marvin 
HB Hall, Jeremiah  
QB Rattler, Spencer 
RB       Gray, Eric 

Statistical Leaders

TCU Horned Frogs
Passing: M. Duggan (1003)
Rushing: Z. Evans (586)
Receiving: T. Barber (205)
Touchdowns: K. Miller (6)
Sacks: D. Horton (2)
Tackles: T. Carter (23)
Oklahoma Sooners
Passing: S. Rattler (1371)
Rushing: K. Brooks (535)
Receiving: M. Mims (400)
Touchdowns: K. Brooks (6)
Sacks: P. Winfrey (4.5)
Tackles: P. Fields (25)
TCU Horned Frogs: Gary Patterson (22nd season)
Oklahoma Sooners: Lincoln Riley (5th season)

Weather Forecast

71 degrees F sunny, 42% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 9 mph wind speeds NW.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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