by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021
Game time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Iowa State -15
BetMGM: Iowa State -14.5
Caesars: Iowa State -14.5
Season record
TCU: 5-6 (3-5 Big 12)
Iowa State: 6-5 (4-4 Big 12)
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TCU - Iowa State preview and analysis
Last week
TCU: won 31-28 vs. Kansas
Iowa State: lost 28-21 at No. 10 Oklahoma
Two programs will end what's considered disappointing regular seasons when the Iowa State Cyclones host the TCU Horned Frogs in Ames.
One of those teams is already in the bowl-eligible category. Iowa State won its sixth game three weeks ago against the Texas Longhorns. Since then, two straight road losses at the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Oklahoma Sooners may put some doubt into that.
The Cyclones are coming off a 7-point loss at Oklahoma last week in which things started off right. Iowa State opened the game on a 12-play, 75-yard drive capped off by a 1-yard score from Breece Hall. After that, the Sooners turned up the heat and took a 21-7 lead after three.
Hall only carried the ball 19 times for 58 yards and that touchdown, but that game was spent with Brock Purdy trying to rally the Cyclones and get the offense going. The senior quarterback threw for 281 yards and a touchdown but also threw an interception in the loss.
For a team that held the ball for 17 more minutes and outgained Oklahoma 361-305, and still lost, might be the most embarrassing loss for the Cyclones heading into this regular season finale.
The good news for Iowa State is they're at home, where the Cyclones have not lost in conference play this season. One of those wins includes a shocker against Oklahoma State, who can still win the Big 12 should they defeat those same Sooners on Saturday.
And while Iowa State's season may not be one for the rememberance books, neither is TCU's but it can still be memorable for becoming bowl eligible. Gary Patterson is gone, but the Frogs are 2-1 under interim coach Jerry Kill after winning by 3 against the two-win Kansas Jayhawks last week.
Max Duggan was only 10 of 16 passing for 166 yards and an interception, but the TCU running game picked up the slack. Kendre Miller ran for 112 yards and a score, as did Emari Demercado with 89 yards. Duggan contributed with 74 yards on 14 scrambles and a score, as well.
None of TCU's games have been pretty to this point, but man are they ever scrappy. This is the same Frogs team that knocked off the Baylor Bears a few weeks ago. That's been their only win against the spread over the past six games, so take that for what it's worth.
Prediction
Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings with the Cyclones covering the last four before last season's 37-34 thriller in Fort Worth. While TCU becoming bowl eligible would be a fun story, the Cyclones defense against the run has given up only 121 yards per game. If Duggan can't get the job done through the air, it's going to be a cakewalk for Hall and Purdy in this contest. Iowa State by 21
Betting trends
TCU is 0-4 ATS following a straight-up win.
TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall.
The under is 6-0 in Iowa State’s last six Friday game.
Iowa State is 0-4 ATS after throwing for more than 280 yards the previous week.
Statistical leaders
TCU:
Passing: Max Duggan -- 1,832 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Zach Evans -- 648 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Quentin Johnston -- 612 yards, 6 TD
Iowa State:
Passing: Brock Purdy -- 2,722 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Breece Hall -- 1,230 yards, 17 TD
Receiving: Xavier Hutchinson -- 846 yards, 5 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
