Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/24/2021

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Tuesday, August 24th, 2021

Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Where to Watch:  Bally Sports Sun, NBCSP

Rays:  77-48 (1st place American League East)

Phillies: 63-61 (2nd place National League East)

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds: Rays -110, Phillies -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Phillies -110; Over/Under 9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Phillies -110; Over/Under 9.5 runs

Rays:  Nelson Cruz (covid) Out, J.P. Feyereisen (shoulder) Out

Phillies: Zack Elfin (knee) Out, Freddy Galvis (quad) Day to Day

Rays:

B. Lowe, 2B
J. Choi, 1B
W. Franco, SS
A. Meadows, DH
R. Arozarena, LF
J. Wendle, 3B
B. Phillips, R
F. Mejia, C
K. Kiermaier, CF
C. Archer, SP

Phillies:

O. Herrera, LF
J. Segura, 2B
B. Harper, RF
J. Realmuto, C
R. Hoskins, 1B
D. Gregorius, SS
R. Torreyes, 3B
T. Jankowski, CF
K. Gibson, P

Rays:

Batting Average:  Randy Arozarena (.274)

Hits:  Randy Arozarena (115)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (29)

RBI:  Austin Meadows (88)

Stolen Bases:  Brett Phillips (12)

Wins:  Josh Fleming (10)

Saves:  Diego Castillo (14)

Holds:  Ryan Thompson (11)

Phillies:

Batting Average:  Jean Segura (.295)

Hits:  Jean Segura (109)

Home Runs:  Rhys Hoskins (26)

RBI:  Rhys Hoskins (70)

Stolen Bases:  Bryce Harper (12)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (10)

Saves:  Hector Neris (12)

ERA:  Zack Wheeler (.277)

Managers:

Rays:  Kevin Cash

Phillies: Joe Girardi

Recent Form:

The Rays are 7-3 over their last ten games. 8 Overs, 1 Under, and a Push.  Don’t believe the hype, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox aren’t battling for first place (yet).. They are fighting over second place.  The Rays go into every MLB game since April with a swagger that says they will take it all.  Everyone in Major League baseball is assuming the world series will go through the Los Angeles Dodgers in Dodger stadium… completely discounting the Houston Astros, the San Francisco Giants, and these TAMPA BAY RAYS.  They’ve been mowing down opponents since the start, never projected as the underdog, never thinking they can’t bring the win home by the ninth inning.  They should be getting more respect.  2-1 against the Chicago White Sox, Swept the Baltimore Orioles 4-0, went 1-2 against the Minnesota Twins. 

The Phillies are 4-6 over their last ten games.  Logging 2 Overs, 7 Unders, and 1 Push. They are in second place in their division but that’s not a class division.  They got beat 1-2 against the San Diego Padres, they got SWEPT by the Arizona Diamondbacks (can any other team even say that?!) 0-3, went 1-2 against the Cincinnati Reds, and lost to the Dodgers to start it all out.  They are like the Los Angeles Angels or the Toronto Blue Jays, they have a few great players in the lineup and they can keep the party going… but it’s going to the middle of the pack and it’s staying there.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 16th in batting average .239, 2nd in runs scored 664 (a great indicator of who will be a winning team), and 7th in home runs 169.  The bats are alive in Tampa. Since June they have been on an upswing in runs scored.  Helping to keep the Yanks 4.5 games back and the Red Sox 7 games back. With 6 weeks left in the season (really 5 ½ ) make no mistake, the winner of this division is gonna be a beast for whoever comes out of the NL West. (that’s right I just wrote off Houston after favoring them all year)

The Rays pitchers are 7th in ERA 3.69, 6th in strikeouts 1177, and 20th in runs allowed by a pitcher.  The low score in runs allowed by a pitcher isn’t a great worry, it’s 3 spots better than the Yankees and 5 spots better than the Mets.  Since the league has switched to a “home run or strikeout” batting strategy this stat is all over the place. If the Miami Marlins are better than you at something… that something ain’t a big deal. 

The Phillies are 19th in batting average .238, 16th in runs scored 553, and tied for 18th in home runs 147.  The bats are quiet. The lack of offense keeps the Phillies odds low of making any noise the rest of the way.

The Phillies Pitchers are 19th in ERA 4.41, 11th in strikeouts 1117, and 17th in runs allowed by a pitcher 575.  The numbers are a smidge better than the offenses’ numbers but also point to the fact that this is a losing team in any other division.  Betting insights are telling us this team is a dog.

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Among the quality Rays starters is Drew Rasmussen and he’ll get the first pitch here. Drew is 1-1, 3.64 ERA, 57 strikeouts in 47 innings pitched, 1.26 WHIP.  The 26 year old is normally the type of guy you worry about how green he is since he only has 62 innings pitched in his career since his debut in July of 2020.  Yet word in Tampa is this kid will stick in the majors real soon.  He has top end speed and control.  It’s really just a matter of opportunity meeting preparation.  With the rotation gearing toward playoff preparation and rest… opportunity is here.

The Phillies will start lefty Ranger Suarez 5-4, 1.47 ERA, 53 strikeouts in 55 innings pitched, 1.02 WHIP.  Ranger is a short career 12-7 guy.  The 25 year old out of Venezuela gets dropped in for a few innings here and there but has been used as a starter for most of his young career. He is a solid rotation guy that needs another season to see if that ERA holds up.  He looks good, too bad he won’t get much run support in this one.

“Look, that's what these guys do,....They make the most and embrace the moment, whatever situation occurs. ... It was just so crucial to us winning the game.”  -Rays manager Kevin Cash, yesterday (Sunday),  about all the young pitchers they have called up recently to get the regular rotation healthy for the postseason.

“We have a healthy lineup,.... We're not relying on one or two guys every single night. That's, I think, what makes the lineup deep. We got a lot of different contributions today, and I think that you kind of see that throughout the game with [the] quality of bats.” -Rhys Hoskins, about the state of the team going into the final push of the season.  The numbers don’t back his assertions about the quality of bats.

Rays vs Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 24th game is Rays 8 Phillies 3.  I’m looking at the Over here and nothing else.  Both clubs are starting young fill-in guys who could get rocked before getting pulled.  

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