Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2025

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Friday, July 4, 2025

Venue:  Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv, FDSSUN, TWINS.tv 

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -108, Twins -112; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Twins -110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +100, Twins -120; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  48-39 (3rd place, AL East)

Minnesota Twins:  41-45 (2nd place, AL Central)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  5-5 last 10

Minnesota Twins:  4-6 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-39 record overall and have a road record of 20-14. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Twins on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Ryan Pepiot was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Zack Littell is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 5 SO on 3 hits through 7 IP against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Twins are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 41-46 record overall and have a home record of 22-17. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Friday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .698 OPS. David Festa was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Chris Paddack is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-7 with a 4.70 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 walks with 3 strikeouts on 6 hits through 4.2 innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked good in their games this season with their 48-39 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They have also been a good road team this year with their 20-14 road record. Meanwhile, the Twins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 41-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL Central. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 22-17 home record this season. The Rays were really hot and have now cooled off a bit while the Twins were in a terrible slump over the last 2 weeks, but the Rays have still been the hotter team lately as they are 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Twins are 4-6. The Rays also have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of here and the better offense too. Littell is on the mound for the Rays in this one and he is 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA. His team has lost 3 of the last 4 games that he started in, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and hasn't been giving up many runs this year either. The Twins are going with Paddack in this one and he hasn't looked great this year in his starts. He is 3-7 with a 4.70 ERA and the team has also been struggling with him on the mound, losing 2 games in a row now with him starting. He also gave up 3 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him lately. He is going to give up some runs to this Rays offense that has been hot lately, and the Twins haven't been putting up many runs themselves lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Rays Twins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 4, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 6 Twins 2.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 226-186 (+11.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 103-92 (+12.1 units) on the moneyline in road games. 40-25 (+13.4 units) on the moneyline after a one run win. 28-17 UNDER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.

Minnesota Twins: 35-45 (-13.8 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 212-203 (-37.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 114-91 (-15.4 units) on the moneyline in home games. 29-18 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125. 

Tampa Bay Rays:  M. Rodriguez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. DeLuca (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Kim (SS) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Bigge (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. S. McClanahan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Triceps. R. Palacios (LF) Ten Day IL - Knee. A. Faedo (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. N. Lavender (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Minnesota Twins:  B. Ober (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. P. Lopez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. Z. Matthews (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. L. Keaschall (2B) Sixty Day IL - Forearm.

“The add-on runs there ended up being extremely crucial, and they came with two out, so encouraged by everybody playing a role. You saw a glimpse of what the offense has looked like for quite some time now. Happy to see it kind of break out there.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s win against the Athletics in their game on Wednesday.

“A big part of that decision comes down to talking with Bailey and a lot of that is gonna be what he’s feeling and how he’s interpreting how it’s affecting him out on the mound. Obviously, it’s something that he’s been pitching with to some extent, but something that I think at this point he believes is now affecting him too much, and something he shouldn’t be pitching with. All that said, let’s hope that this propels him, gets him to a good spot. Hopefully [we’ll] get him healthy and at some point, cut him loose again. Then we hopefully get the good version of Bailey, the really great pitcher that we’ve had here for a long time.” - Rocco Baldelli after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Wednesday.

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Jake Mangum (S) LF

Chandler Simpson (L) CF

Matt Thaiss (L) C

Taylor Walls (S) SS

Byron Buxton (R) CF

Trevor Larnach (L) RF

Willi Castro (S) 2B

Brooks Lee (S) 3B

Carlos Correa (R) SS

Matt Wallner (L) DH

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Kody Clemens (L) 1B

Harrison Bader (R) LF

Batting Average:  Richie Palacios (.750)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (95)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (21)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (53)

Stolen Bases:  José Caballero (30)

Wins:  Shane Baz (8)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (15)

ERA:  Joe Boyle (0.00)

Batting Average:  Luke Keaschall (.368)

Hits:  Ty France (78)

Home Runs:  Byron Buxton (19)

RBI:  Byron Buxton (51)

Stolen Bases:  Byron Buxton (15)

Wins:  Joe Ryan (8)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (13)

ERA:  Danny Coulombe (0.79)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (11th season)

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (7th season)