Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/28/2023

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Friday, July 28, 2023

Venue:  Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -115, Astros -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -115, Astros -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -115, Astros -105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  62-43 (2nd place, AL East)

Houston Astros:  58-45 (2nd place, AL West)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  2-8 last 10

Houston Astros:  7-3 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a loss and split their 2-game series against the Miami Marlins 1-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-43 record overall and have a road record of 25-24. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Astros on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .771 OPS. Zach Eflin was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Shane McClanahan is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 11-1 with a 2.89 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 5 Ks on 5 hits through 4 IP against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Astros are entering this series off a loss but won their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-45 record overall and have a home record of 27-23. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Framber Valdez was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Cristian Javier is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-2 with a 4.32 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 6 BB with 5 strikeouts on 1 hit through 5.2 innings played against the Oakland Athletics.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays haven't been great in their games lately as they are losing a lot now and have been slipping down the standings into 2nd place. They still have one of the best offenses in the MLB though and a really good pitching staff too. The Rays will be looking to bounce back in this series and no better way to do so than with their ace on the mound in McClanahan. McClanahan has been a stud for the Rays all season since he hasn't been giving up many runs in any of his starts all year and has also been great lately. The Astros have been playing a lot better lately as their offense is getting better now, but their offense still hasn't been great in their games lately and their pitching staff has been giving up quite a few runs. They have Javier on the mound here and he is coming off a good start in his last one but he has also had quite a few questionable starts where he gave up a ton of runs this season and he will be at risk here against one of the best offenses in the MLB. The Rays need a win badly here to get back on track and chase down the Orioles for 1st place in the AL East and they do have the better pitching matchup here along with the better offense too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game.

Rays Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 28, 2023 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 3 Astros 1.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 7-15 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. 25-24 (-5.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. SHANE MCCLANAHAN is 13-5 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125. 11-6 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10.

Houston Astros: 33-15 (+15.6 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8.5 to 10. 27-17 (+6.9 units) on the moneyline after a loss. 8-2 UNDER after a loss by 8 runs or more. 8-2 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse.

Tampa Bay Rays:  Z. Eflin (SP) Ques Tues - Knee. Y. Diaz (3B) Ques Fri - Groin. T. Walls (SS) Out indefinitely - Oblique. J. Fleming (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. F. Mejia (C) Early Sept - Knee. D. Rasmussen (RP) out for season - Elbow. A. Kittredge (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. G. Cleavinger (RP) out for season - Knee. J. Springs (RP) out for season - Elbow. S. Baz (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  J. Urquidy (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. M. Brantley (DH) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) out for season - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“Really, really good stuff. Very challenging for us today at the plate. He did mix well. Kept us off balance. We just didn't hit that many balls hard.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Wednesday.

“He couldn’t get his breaking ball over and his fastball was up and away in the zone. He just couldn’t get the ball down.” - Dusty Baker after his team’s loss against the Rangers in their game on Wednesday.

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Wander Franco (S) SS

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Luke Raley (L) 1B

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Harold Ramirez (R) DH

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Jose Siri (R) CF

Christian Bethancourt (R) C

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Jeremy Pena (R) SS

Kyle Tucker (L) RF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Jose Abreu (R) 1B

Chas McCormick (R) CF

Corey Julks (R) LF

Martin Maldonado (R) C

Batting Average:  Yandy Diaz (.318)

Hits:  Yandy Diaz (104)

Home Runs:  Jose Siri (20)

RBI:  Randy Arozarena (62)

Stolen Bases:  Wander Franco (28)

Wins:  Shane McClanahan (11)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (12)

ERA:  Chase Anderson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Kyle Tucker (.304)

Hits:  Kyle Tucker (111)

Home Runs:  Kyle Tucker (18)

RBI:  Kyle Tucker (69)

Stolen Bases:  Kyle Tucker (19)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (8)

Saves:  Ryan Pressly (24)

ERA:  Hector Neris (1.44)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (9th season)

Houston Astros: Dusty Baker (4th season)