Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/16/2026

Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Friday, October 16, 2026

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  TBS, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Guardians -110; Over/Under:  6.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Guardians -110; Over/Under:  6.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Guardians -110; Over/Under:  6.5 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  98-64 (1st place, AL East)

Cleveland Guardians:  85-77 (1st place, AL Central)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  6-4 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  6-4 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their best of 5-game series against the New York Yankees 3-0 in the ALDS. They finished the regular season with a 98-64 record overall and had a road record of 43-38. This is the 4th game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Guardians on Friday for the ALCS. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .728 OPS. Griffin Jax was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Nick Martinez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 3 strikeouts on 5 hits through 3.2 innings played against the New York Yankees.

The Guardians are entering this series off a win and won their best of 5-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-2 in the American League Division Series. They finished the regular season with an 85-77 record overall and had a home record of 41-40. This is the 4th game of a best 4 out of 7 game series with the Rays on Friday for the American League Championship Series. Their offense ranks 26th in the MLB with a .696 OPS. Gavin Williams was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Tanner Bibee is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-15 with a 4.36 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 6 Ks on 7 hits through 6 IP against the Kansas City Royals.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a pick 'em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 98-64 record overall which had them right at the top of the AL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 55-26 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians have looked good in their games this season with their 85-77 record overall which had them right at the top of the AL Central. They have been a good road team too with their 44-37 road record this year. The Guardians are entering this game with a 2-1 series lead after winning game 3 by a score of 3-2. The Guardians were able to squeeze out a win at home with their ace on the mound, but now they aren't going to have a great option available to start in this one. Bibee could get the nod here, but he was terrible in the last series as he gave up 2 earned runs with only 1 out. This is a game that the Rays have to have and this is a pitching matchup that they can take advantage of. Martinez is on the mound for the Rays in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and he has been one of their best starters all year. The team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme for them. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him and the Rays won their game in the last series with him starting. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Rays Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, October 16, 2026 (6:00 pm ET start time) is Rays 7 Guardians 2.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 49-47 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline against AL Central opponents. 168-159 (-7.2 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse. 110-127 (-9.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 36-24 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Cleveland Guardians: 274-231 (+32.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 163-104 (+20.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 186-163 (+15.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 69-48 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season.

Tampa Bay Rays:  G. Jax (SP) Day To Day - Back. C. Simpson (LF) Day To Day - Foot. T. Wells (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. Melton (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hamstring. G. Cleavinger (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. S. McClanahan (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Cleveland Guardians:  C. Holderman (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Wrist. R. Hoskins (1B) Ten Day IL - Back.

“What we like is what he's done as a starter for us all season long. A lot of confidence with him. It's really good stuff. He gets it in the zone. Gets himself in rhythm. I think he’s done a tremendous job of transitioning into that starter routine and [will] just go do what he’s done.” - Kevin Cash on Griffin Jax before his team’s loss against the Guardians in game 3 of this series on Thursday.

“Just trust the work, trust the process. Keep rolling.” - Petey Halpin after their win against the Rays in the 3rd game of this series on Thursday. 

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Victor Mesa Jr. (L) RF

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Liam Hicks (L) C

Jonny DeLuca (R) CF

Richie Palacios (L) 2B

Taylor Walls (S) SS

Steven Kwan (L) LF

José Ramírez (S) 3B

Chase DeLauter (L) RF

Jo Adell (R) DH

Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B

Travis Bazzana (L) 2B

Patrick Bailey (S) C

Petey Halpin (L) CF

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Chandler Simpson (.306)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (180)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (42)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (101)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (46)

Wins:  Drew Rasmussen (16)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (41)

ERA:  Bryan Baker (1.44)

Batting Average:  Chase DeLauter (.287)

Hits:  Steven Kwan (152)

Home Runs:  Angel Martínez (18)

RBI:  Brayan Rocchio (73)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (37)

Wins:  Gavin Williams (14)

Saves:  Cade Smith (41)

ERA:  Cade Smith (1.95)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (3rd season)