Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: Game 1 American League Wild Card Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/7/2022

American League Wild Card: Game 1

Time: 12:07 p.m. ET

Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to watch: ESPN

DraftKings: Guardians -125, Rays +105

FanDuel: Guardians -126, Rays +108

BetMGM: Guardians -125, Rays +105

Caesars: Guardians -125, Rays +105

Rays: 86-76, No. 6 seed in AL

Guardians: 90-72, won AL Central, No. 3 seed

The road teams are really given the shaft as it pertains to the wild card round for Major League Baseball. You work so hard to get to be one of the few teams that fight for a chance to get to the field of 8, but if you make the wild card round, you’re essentially playing possibly three road games that could alter your season. And that’s what lies ahead for the Tampa Bay Rays as it plays the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians in the best-of-3 starting Friday.

The Rays come into the series having lost five in a row to end the season and are facing an uphill climb to get back to the American League Division Series. But the Rays will have their ace on the hill in Shane McClanahan, who if not for the work of Justin Verlander and others, would have serious consideration for the AL Cy Young award. But even though they’re on a losing streak and their backs are against the wall, led by McClanahan, don’t tell the Rays the odds.

“Anything can happen, man,” said McClanahan. “We made it, but now, we've got to show that we deserve to be here and we've got a good team.”

The Rays were outstanding last year in making it to the playoffs, winning the AL East with a team that many believed would be on the come-up for years to come with Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz, among others. But Tampa skirted to an 86-76 record and got in as the No. 6 seed in the American League. But the Rays also sat a number of players down the stretch after clinching, so maybe it’s a good thing.

“I just told them we can stop sucking,” manager Kevin Cash quipped after Game 162. “Now, let's find ways to win games.”

But while the Rays have the experience, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll translate to wins. The Guardians are the youngest team in baseball and decided about midway through August that they were going to pull away from this close division race and put their stamp on it. Cleveland went on to go 92-70 and win the division title and secure home-field advantage for this series.

The Cleveland offense is 100% based around Jose Ramirez, the star third baseman who made the shocking decision to stay with the Guardians on a five-year extension before the season began. Ramirez had another strong All-Star season by hitting 29 home runs, driving in 126 runs and still batting .280. In a sense, he saved the lineup big time. Josh Naylor was right below him and second on the team with 20 homers and 79 RBI.

“We've talked since Day 1 how we want to play,” Guardians manager Terry Francona said. “If your best player doesn't do it, my message would be hollow. And I know that. And Josey knows that. He's pretty special.”

The Guardians are going to send their ace Shane Bieber to the mound. The former AL Cy Young winner had a strong return season following shoulder surgery last season, going 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and nearly 200 strikeouts. He’s been solid for them all year, and to get this matchup in Game 1 between Cy Young-caliber starters is going to be a treat for everyone.

Game 1 is usually where the young, energized team will make the most impact with the home crowd behind them. If the Guardians can strike early against McClanahan, the Rays don’t have the bullpen to keep up. I like Cleveland in Game 1 because when Progressive Field gets rocking, there’s not a better home-field advantage sometimes. Guardians win 6-3

Rays are 15-17 (-9.3 units on the moneyline) against AL Central teams this year.

Rays are 64-59 (-8.4 units on ML) against right-handed starters this year.

Rays are 15-13 this season when McClanahan starts.

Guardians are 45-25 (+21.5 units on ML) this season after winning four or five of their last six.

Rays:
Jonathan Aranda (L) 3B
Manuel Margot (R) RF
Wander Franco (S) SS
Randy Arozarena (R) DH
David Peralta (L) LF
Francisco Mejia (S) C
Jose Siri (R) CF
Ji-Man Choi (L) 1B
Taylor Walls (S) 2B

Guardians:
Steven Kwan (L) DH
Amed Rosario (R) SS
Jose Ramirez (S) 3B
Andres Gimenez (L) 2B
Josh Naylor (L) 1B
Oscar Gonzalez (R) RF
Will Brennan (L) LF
Luke Maile (R) C
Myles Straw (R) CF

Batting average: Yandy Diaz -- .296

Home runs: Randy Arozarena -- 20

RBI: Randy Arozarena -- 89

Wins: Shane McClanahan -- 12

ERA: Shane McClanahan -- 2.54

Batting average: Steven Kwan -- .298

Home runs: Jose Ramirez -- 29

RBI: Jose Ramirez -- 126

Wins: Cal Quantrill -- 15

ERA: Shane Bieber -- 2.88