Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 4/18/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Apr 18, 2022
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Where to watch: Bally Sports Sun, Marquee Sports Network

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Rays -145, Cubs +125
BetMGM: Rays -150, Cubs +125
Caesars: Rays -145, Cubs +125

Season record
Rays: 5-5
Cubs: 5-4

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Rays - Cubs preview and analysis


What more can we say about Seiya Suzuki that hasn’t already been said? We might be seeing another Japanese player come over to the MLB and make a charge for MVP because this is really some insane stuff that Suzuki has put on.

Having already drawn two walks earlier on Sunday, and being called on a third strike, Suzuki took a 1-1 fastball to right center field for his fourth homer of his short MLB career, and the Chicago Cubs were able to leave Coors Field with a split in the four-game split over the Colorado Rockies.

The Cubs won 6-4 and got a strong road performance from starter Drew Smyly in the process. Any strong outing the Cubs can get at this point is gravy. Chicago is going through a tough rebuild, but any success – and particularly, any success from Suzuki – is worth celebrating if you’re a Cubs fan.

"He's a really good player with a really good eye," Cubs manager David Ross said of Suzuki. "They're going to try to make somebody else beat you, yeah. That's smart managing."

It’d be one thing if the Cubs were doing this without Suzuki in the lineup, but they’ve been in need of a face of the franchise after sending Kris Bryant to the Rockies. This isn’t to say the Cubs are fully fixed. They need to answer the pitching questions beyond Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman.

"What's stood out is just how calm the at-bats are," Ross said. "You hear about the plate discipline and the contact, but just being able to find his pitches, and not chase outside the strike zone with the velocity that's here and some of the nasty stuff that he's faced so far, it's just been really impressive.”

I’ll say that Smyly getting that outing is a good start. He may have not gotten the win (because the whole concept of giving starters the win with that kind of stat line doesn’t make sense) but a strong 4.2 innings of four-hit ball, while striking out four, is a good indication of getting more faith in Ross going forward.

"It's huge. They're both tremendous catchers," said Smyly, who has allowed no runs in two starts (9 2/3 innings) this season. "Yan's been around forever. Contreras is an All-Star every year. Working with both of them is extremely fun."

Hendricks will get the start against a Tampa Bay Rays team that was in desperate need of an offensive explosion and got that Sunday in a series-finale victory over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday in Chi-Town.

Randy Arozarena went 3-for-5, and Wander Franco continued his strong start to the season with a 2-for-5 day from the plate. Kevin Kiermaier drove in two runs, and the bullpen-ladened Rays threw a consistent game to quiet the Chicago lineup.

Overall, a good day for Tampa.

“Coming into the game, having the offense going a little bit quiet here lately, [we] needed to find a way to put some runs on the board,” manager Kevin Cash said. “And look, we didn't do it by knocking the cover off the ball, but you'll take it however. Good teams find ways when they're presenting opportunities for you, and we did that.”

Prediction


The Rays will send young lefty Shane McClanahan to the mound, who has had a tremendous start to the season with 15 strikeouts through two starts. Hendricks did not look sharp in his last start, giving up six runs in just 3.2 innings against the Pirates. Both pitchers know how to get it done by punching out batters, and I wouldn’t expect anything different. If it comes down to the bullpen, I’m going to trust the Rays to get it done before the Cubs in this one. Rays win 5-4

Betting trends


Rays are 106-55 as a favorite of -110 or higher the past three seasons.

Rays are 35-21 the past three seasons as a road favorite of -110 or higher.

Cubs are 28-51 the past three seasons as an underdog between +100 and +150.

Projected lineup


Rays:
Brandon Lowe (L) 2B
Wander Franco (S) SS
Randy Arozarena (R) DH
Ji-Man Choi (L) 1B
Yandy Diaz (R) 3B
Josh Lowe (L) LF
Manuel Margot (R) RF
Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF
Francisco Mejia (S) C
Shane McClanahan (LHP) 0-1, 3.00 ERA

Cubs:
Clint Frazier (R) LF
Nick Madrigal (R) 2B
Willson Contreras (R) DH
Frank Schwindel (R) 1B
Seiya Suzuki (R) RF
Yan Gomes (R) C
Patrick Wisdom (R) 3B
Michael Hermosillo (R) CF
Nico Hoerner (R) SS
Kyle Hendricks (RHP) 0-1, 7.00 ERA

Statistical leaders


Rays:
Batting average: Wander Franco -- .381
Hits: Wander Franco -- 16
Home runs: Brandon Lowe -- 3
RBI: Two tied -- 7
Wins: N/A
Saves: N/A
ERA: N/A

Cubs:
Batting average: Seiya Suzuki -- .400
Hits: Seiya Suzuki -- 10
Home runs: Seiya Suzuki -- 4
RBI: Seiya Suzuki -- 11
Wins: Five tied -- 1
Saves: David Robertson -- 3
ERA: Drew Smyly -- 0.00

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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