Game Time: 7:07 pm ET, Monday, October 11, 2021
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Rays -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Rays NL, Red Sox NL; Over/Under: NL runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Rays -115, Red Sox -105; Over/Under: 9 runs
Tampa Bay Rays: 100-62 (1st place, AL East)
Boston Red Sox: 92-70 (2nd place, AL East)
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Preview and Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays: 5-5 last 10
Boston Red Sox: 7-3 last 10
Tampa Bay Rays Analysis
The Rays are coming into this game after losing game 3 of this series on Sunday night 6-4 after 13 innings. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and are down 2-1 in this series against the Red Sox facing elimination in this game. This will be game 4 of this series on Monday night. Shane McClanahan was the starter in game 1, Shane Baz in game 2, Drew Rasmussen got the nod for game 3 so Luis Patino will likely be the starting pitcher on the mound for this game 4 on Monday. He is 5-3 with a 4.31 ERA this season. His team has found success with him pitching in recent games as he has been credited with 3 straight wins and his team has won their last 4 straight and 6 of their last 8 games when he has made an appearance in the game. In his last start, he allowed 0 ER and 0 BB with 3 Ks on 0 hits through 2 IP against the New York Yankees on Saturday, October 2. He has seen the Red Sox lineup 2 times this season and he is 1-0 against them with 1 no-decision while his team is 2-0 in those games. He allowed 4 runs in one of those games and 1 run in the most recent one. He has only played in 3 games in the playoffs in his career, all of them were last year and his team is 1-2 in those games. He came out of the bullpen as a reliever in all of those games and this will be his first ever postseason start. Their offense has scored 15 runs in the 3 games of this series averaging 5 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 20 runs against them in that same span allowing a little under 7 runs per game.
Boston Red Sox Analysis
The Red Sox are coming into this game after winning game 3 of this series on Sunday night. They have now won 6 of their last 7 games and are leading this best-of-five series 2-1 over the Rays with a chance to close out the series at home in this one. This will be game 4 of the ALDS on Monday night. Eduardo Rodriguez was the starter in game 1, Chris Sale in game 2, and Nathan Eovaldi in game 3 so it will likely be Nick Pivetta throwing the first pitch for them in this game 4 on Monday. He is 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA this season. He was credited with a save in the last game he played in and a loss in the last game he started and his team has lost 5 of their last 7 games that he started in. In his last start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 of them being a HR, and 2 BB with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 4.2 innings of work against the Baltimore Orioles back on Thursday, September 30. He has seen the Rays lineup 4 times this season and he is 1-2 against them with 1 no-decision while his team is 1-3 against them in those games. He has never started a game in the postseason before but he has come out of the bullpen as a reliever in 2 games. Their offense has scored 20 runs in their 3 games of this series averaging a little under 7 runs scored per game and they have allowed their opponents to score 15 runs against them in that same span allowing 5 runs per game.
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction
The Red Sox have all the momentum coming into this game at home with a 2-1 lead and a chance to close out the series here. They have been playing in much better form coming into this game as well. All the pressure is on the Rays to win here as they finished the regular season with the best record in the American League. The best bet to place in this game is on the Red Sox to win as they are playing better and have the momentum on their side.
Rays Red Sox Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Monday, October 11, 2021 (7:07 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 8 Rays 4.
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MLB Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Rays: 101-63 (+25.2 units) on the money line in all games. 48-33 (+15.6 units) on the money line in road games. 52-26 (+26.2 units) on the money line against division opponents.
Boston Red Sox: 33-34 (-2.2 units) on the money line when the money line is +125 to -125. 44-40 (-3.8 units) on the money line in the second half of the season. 27-37 O/U when the money line is +125 to -125. 75-85 O/U in all games.
Tampa Bay Rays: M. Wisler (RP) Ques Sun - Finger injury. T. Hunter (RP) Mid Oct - Back injury. A. Conley (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness. R. Thompson (RP) out for season - Shoulder injury.
Boston Red Sox: P. Valdez (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness. J. Taylor (RP) Out indefinitely - Back injury.
Players to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays: Wander Franco is one player to watch in this matchup. He leads his team in batting average and he had a good performance in game 3. He had 2 hits, 2 runs scored and 1 RBI and he will be looking to keep that up in this game as his team is on the brink of elimination. Look for him to have another good performance here.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in hits, homers, and in RBI this season. He had a good game in game 3 with 1 hit and 1 RBI and he will want to continue that here. Look for him in this game to keep contributing and help his team advance to the next round.
"You chalk it up as a bad game. It just wasn't our night." - Mike Zunino after their loss in game 2 of the series.
"Obviously, we had to make adjustments, and Tanner came in and did an outstanding job. But offensively, it was like: `Hey, don't panic.' We put up two (runs) in the first, and we still got eight innings. They did an amazing job the whole night." - Alex Cora after his team won game 2 and tied the series 1-1 going back to Boston.
Tampa Bay Rays
B. Lowe 2B
W. Franco SS
A. Meadows LF
N. Cruz DH
J. Choi 1B
R. Arozarena RF
K. Kiermaier CF
M. Zunino C
J. Wendle 3B
Boston Red Sox
K. Schwarber 1B
E. Hernandez CF
R. Devers 3B
X. Bogaerts SS
A. Verdugo LF
J.D. Martinez DH
H. Renfroe RF
K. Plawecki C
C. Arroyo 2B
Tampa Bay Rays
Batting Average: W. Franco (.288)
Hits: Randy Arozarena (145)
Home Runs: Brandon Lowe (39)
RBI: Austin Meadows (106)
Stolen Bases: Randy Arozarena (20)
Wins: S. McClanahan (10)
Saves: Andrew Kittredge (8)
ERA: C. McHugh (1.55)
Boston Red Sox
Batting Average: X. Bogaerts (.295)
Hits: R. Devers (166)
Home Runs: R. Devers (38)
RBI: R. Devers (115)
Stolen Bases: C. Vazquez (8)
Wins: E. Rodriguez (13)
Saves: M. Barnes (24)
ERA: R. Brasier (1.50)
Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (7th season)
Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (3rd season, non-consecutive)
63 degrees F partly cloudy, 77% humidity, 10% chance of rain, up to 6 mph wind speeds SW.