Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/10/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 4:07 pm ET, Sunday, October 10, 2021
Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Where to Watch:  MLB Network

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays, -105, Red Sox -115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays, -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays, -105, Red Sox -115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
 

Season Record

Tampa Bay Rays:  100-62 (1st place, AL East)
Boston Red Sox:  92-70 (2nd place, AL East)
 
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Tampa Bay Rays:  7-3 last 10
Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10
 
 
 

Tampa Bay Rays Analysis

The Rays are coming into this game after winning the series opener of this ALDS. They beat the Red Sox 5-0 in that game and still have game 2 of this series to be played on Friday with that result pending. This will be the 3rd game of the series played on Sunday afternoon. The Rays have won 3 of their last 4 games after winning in game 1 of this series on Thursday night. Shane McClanahan was given the start in game 1 while Shane Baz was given the nod in game 2 on Friday night so it will be Drew Rasmussen who will be the starting pitcher on the mound for the Rays in this game on Sunday. He is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA this season and he is still fairly new to the league in general. He was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this season and he has had a lot of success on the mound with the Rays. He has been credited with 4 straight wins and his team has won 3 of their last 4 and 8 of their last 10 games when he has made an appearance in the game. In his last start, he allowed 0 ER and 0 BB with 2 Ks on 1 hit through 5 IP against the Houston Astros on Wednesday, September 29. He has seen the Red Sox lineup 5 times this year, 3 times as a starter and 2 times as a reliever out of the bullpen. He is 1-0 against them as a starter while his team is 2-1 against them in those games. He never allowed more than 1 run in any of those 5 games. The only experience that he has in the postseason was last year he played in 1 inning against the Dodgers and allowed 0 runs with 2 Ks and 1 hit, that was his only appearance in the playoffs in his career. Their offense has scored 21 runs in their last 4 games averaging a little over 5 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 6 runs against them in that same span allowing less than 2 runs per game.
 

Boston Red Sox Analysis

The Red Sox are coming into this game after losing the opening game of this series 5-0 against the Rays. They were shutout in game 1 after scoring 6 runs against the New York Yankees in the Wild Card game 2 days before. That loss snapped a 5 game winning streak that they were on. Game 2 of this series is still to be played on Friday night with that result pending. This will be game 3 of this series played on Sunday. Eduardo Rodriguez got the start in game 1 while Chris Sale was the starter in game 2 so Nathan Eovaldi will be throwing the first pitch for them in this game on Sunday. He is 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA this season and he was able to help bring home the win against the Yankees in the Wild Card. He has been credited with 2 straight wins and his team has won 8 of their last 9 games with him on the bump. In his last start, he allowed 1 ER, it being a HR, and 0 BB with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5.1 innings of work last Tuesday against the Yankees. He has seen the Rays lineup 4 times this year and he is 2-1 against them with 1 no-decision while his team is 3-1 in those games. He allowed no more than 1 run in 3 of those games and allowed 6 in the 1 loss. Nathan Eovaldi has made 7 appearances in the postseason and his team has won 6 of those 7 games. He is 3-0 as a starter in the playoffs. Their offense has scored 22 runs in their last 5 games averaging over 4 runs scored per game and they have allowed their opponents to score 17 runs against them in that same span allowing over 3 runs per game. 
 

 

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction

The Rays looked really good in game 1 with their batters and their pitchers. Randy Arozarena looks even better than he did in last year's postseason and that is a very scary thought. If the Red Sox cannot shut him down then it really does not matter what they do in this series. Eovaldi has some playoff experience but Rasmusses has been a solid pitcher all year whether as a starter or a reliever. He rarely allows over 2 runs in a game. This is a very dangerous Rays team that looks very good and ready to win their games. The best bet to place in this game is on the Rays to win. 
 
Rays Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Sunday, October 10, 2021 (4:07 pm ET start time) is Rays 8 Red Sox 2.
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MLB Betting Trends

 
Tampa Bay Rays: 101-63 (+25.2 units) on the money line in all games. 48-33 (+15.6 units) on the money line in road games. 52-26 (+26.2 units) on the money line against division opponents.
Boston Red Sox: 2-4 (-3.4 units) on the money line after 2 straight games throwing where the bullpen threw 5+ innings. 33-34 (-2.2 units) on the money line when the money line is +125 to -125. 63-55 (-5.1 units) on the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10.
 

Key Injuries

 
Tampa Bay Rays:  T. Hunter (RP) Mid Oct - Back injury. A. Conley (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness. R. Thompson (RP) out for season - Shoulder injury.
Boston Red Sox:  R. Devers (3B) Ques Fri - Forearm injury. J. Martinez (RF) Ques Thurs - Ankle injury. P. Valdez (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness. J. Taylor (RP) Out indefinitely - Back injury.
 

Players to Watch

 
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena is one player to watch in this matchup. He leads his team in hits and in stolen bases this season. He put up a great performance in the postseason last year, and he has continued that into this postseason. He became the first player in MLB history in game 1 to get a home run and steal home in the same game. He was very dangerous in game 1 and will likely just heat up even more as the series goes on. He is very talented so look for him to keep making history with his incredible performances.
 
Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts is one player to watch in this contest. The Red Sox did nothing in game 1 of this series and he was the one who helped lift his team over the Yankees. Devers is now questionable to play and he is their main source of offense so look for Bogaerts to step up in this game and help his team get a win here.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"I noticed the pitcher kind of wasn't keeping attention to me. I was able to take a big enough lead and take that base. That's the first time I've ever stolen home." - Randy Arozarena after becoming the first player in MLB history to hit a home run and steal home in the same game.
 
 
 
"A few days ago, everybody said he was setting up the pitcher whenever he drops the bat - today because he didn't get a hit, he is hurt? You know, I mean, after 162 (games), things happen and you get treatment and you grind, you know? Not everybody is 100% right now, and he is posting. Like I said a few days ago, you know, he was dropping the bat the same way, and nobody said anything." - Alex Cora on the injury that Rafael Devers has suffered.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
 
Tampa Bay Rays
R. Arozarena LF
W. Franco SS
B. Lowe 2B
N. Cruz DH
Y. Diaz 3B
J. Luplow 1B
M. Margot RF
M. Zunino C
K. Kiermaier CF
 
Boston Red Sox
K. Schwarber 1B
E. Hernandez CF
R. Devers 3B
X. Bogaerts SS
A. Verdugo LF
J.D. Martinez DH
H. Renfroe RF
C. Vazquez C
C. Arroyo 2B
 
 

Statistical Leaders


 
Tampa Bay Rays
Batting Average:  W. Franco (.288)
Hits:  Randy Arozarena (145)
Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (39)
RBI:  Austin Meadows (106)
Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (20)
Wins:  S. McClanahan (10)
Saves:  Andrew Kittredge (8)
ERA:  C. McHugh (1.55)
 
Boston Red Sox
Batting Average:  X. Bogaerts (.295)
Hits:  R. Devers (166)
Home Runs:  R. Devers (38)
RBI:  R. Devers (115)
Stolen Bases:  C. Vazquez (8)
Wins:  E. Rodriguez (13)
Saves:  M. Barnes (24)
ERA:  R. Brasier (1.50)
 
Managers:
Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (7th season)
Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (3rd season, non-consecutive)
 

Weather Forecast

63 degrees F cloudy, 76% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 10 mph wind speeds E.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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