Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/12/2025

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 12, 2025

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  FDSSUN, NESN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +152, Red Sox -187; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +150, Red Sox -185; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +150, Red Sox -185; Over/Under:  8 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  50-44 (3rd place, AL East)

Boston Red Sox:  50-45 (4th place, AL East)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  3-7 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  9-1 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-44 record overall and have a road record of 22-19. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Red Sox on Saturday with the 2nd game still to be played on Friday. The Rays lost the series opener on Thursday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .733 OPS. Drew Rasmussen is their starting pitcher on Friday while Shane Baz is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-4 with a 4.34 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 7 SO on 7 hits through 6 IP against the Detroit Tigers.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-45 record overall and have a home record of 29-20. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Rays on Saturday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Friday. The Red Sox won the 1st game of this series on Thursday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .761 OPS. Rookie pitcher Hunter Dobbins is their starting pitcher on Friday while Garrett Crochet is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 9-4 with a 2.39 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 7 strikeouts on 9 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked good in their games this season with their 50-44 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They have also been a better road team this year with their 22-19 road record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 50-45 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the AL East in a competitive division. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark too with their 29-20 home record this season. The Red Sox have been red hot lately as they are 9-1 in their last 10 games while the Rays have fallen into a slump now, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Red Sox also have the better pitching matchup here and they can take advantage of that. Crochet is on the mound for the Red Sox and he has been their ace this season. He is 9-4 with a 2.39 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs at all. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him, and the team has won 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Rays are going with Baz in this one and he hasn't been bad this season, but he hasn't looked great either. He is 8-4 with a 4.34 ERA and has been giving up some runs lately. He gave up 3 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him this year, and the team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. All signs point to the Red Sox at home in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Rays Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 12, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 7 Rays 2.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 229-191 (+9.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 105-97 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 69-61 (+5.9 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 16-9 UNDER against left-handed starters.

Boston Red Sox: 208-210 (-18.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 105-105 (-24.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 154-153 (-11.9 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 10-4 UNDER at home when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Tampa Bay Rays:  B. Lowe (2B) Day To Day - Side. M. Rodriguez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. DeLuca (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Bigge (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. S. McClanahan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Triceps. R. Palacios (LF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. A. Faedo (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. N. Lavender (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  N. Burdi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. Z. Kelly (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. L. Guerrero (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Dobbins (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. A. Bregman (3B) Ten Day IL - Quad. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. T. Houck (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Something that we probably needed. He's going to add to it. He's pitched really well for the Orioles this year, and he's gotten outs against us. It'll be nice to be able to hand him the ball and get some outs for us now.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s loss against the Red Sox in their game on Thursday.

“Probably Marcelo’s best at-bat of the season, just taking pitches and shooting the ball the other way. It was a big one, but we trust him. He's a good hitter. Like I told him, it feels like sometimes he rushes into the at-bat, like the first [at-bat], a cutter, a pitch that probably he's not looking for, and he hits the groundball to first. But in that one, he was patient enough, and was able to get a pitch that he was able to handle and hit it hard.” - Alex Cora after his team’s win against the Rays in their game on Thursday.

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS

Chandler Simpson (L) CF

Christopher Morel (R) LF

Matt Thaiss (L) C

Taylor Walls (S) 2B

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Roman Anthony (L) DH

Abraham Toro (S) 1B

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Romy Gonzalez (R) 2B

Marcelo Mayer (L) 3B

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Batting Average:  Richie Palacios (.750)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (102)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (23)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (59)

Stolen Bases:  José Caballero (31)

Wins:  Shane Baz (8)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (15)

ERA:  Joe Boyle (0.00)

Batting Average:  Masataka Yoshida (.750)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (101)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (18)

RBI:  Trevor Story (57)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (15)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (9)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (16)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (11th season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)