Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2025

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, July 11, 2025

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  FDSSUN, NESN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Red Sox -110; Over/Under:  9 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  50-43 (3rd place, AL East)

Boston Red Sox:  49-45 (4th place, AL East)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  3-7 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  8-2 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-43 record overall and have a road record of 22-18. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Red Sox on Friday with the series opener still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Taj Bradley is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Drew Rasmussen is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 2 SO on 3 hits through 2 IP against the Minnesota Twins.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-45 record overall and have a home record of 28-20. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Rays on Friday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .763 OPS. Walker Buehler is their starting pitcher on Thursday while rookie pitcher Hunter Dobbins is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-1 with a 4.10 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 0 homers, and 5 walks with 1 strikeout on 4 hits through 4 innings pitched against the San Francisco Giants.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a pick ‘em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked good in their games this season with their 50-43 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They have also been a better road team this year with their 22-18 road record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 49-45 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the AL East in a competitive division. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark too with their 28-20 home record this season. The Red Sox have also been red hot lately as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Rays are 3-7 and have been in a slump, but the Rays do have the better pitching matchup in this one and can take advantage of that. The Rays are going with Rasmussen in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA and he is coming off another great start in which he only gave up 1 earned run. He hasn't been giving up many runs at all lately and even the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Red Sox have been rolling lately, but they don't have their best option on the mound here and as good as their offense has been this season, the Rays also have a really good offense that will find ways to put up runs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Rays Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 11, 2025 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 4 Red Sox 1.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 229-190 (+10.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 105-96 (+10.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 69-60 (+6.9 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 16-10 OVER vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game.

Boston Red Sox: 207-210 (-19.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 104-105 (-25.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 153-153 (-12.9 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 9-5 OVER after 6 consecutive games versus interleague opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays:  B. Lowe (2B) Day To Day - Side. M. Rodriguez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. DeLuca (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Bigge (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. S. McClanahan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Triceps. R. Palacios (LF) Ten Day IL - Knee. A. Faedo (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. N. Lavender (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  N. Burdi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. Z. Kelly (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. L. Guerrero (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Dobbins (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. A. Bregman (3B) Ten Day IL - Quad. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. T. Houck (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“We've done some good things early in the ballgame, but they've answered back every single time. Today we had an answer. Just a bunch of good at-bats.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s win against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday.

“Everybody’s on board. Everybody understands what we’re all about, what we're trying to accomplish. And there's no complaints.” - Alex Cora after his team’s win against the Rockies in their game on Wednesday.

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Jake Mangum (S) LF

Chandler Simpson (L) CF

Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS

Taylor Walls (S) 2B

Danny Jansen (R) C

Jarren Duran (L) CF

Roman Anthony (L) LF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Romy Gonzalez (R) 1B

Marcelo Mayer (L) 3B

David Hamilton (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Richie Palacios (.750)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (101)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (22)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (58)

Stolen Bases:  José Caballero (31)

Wins:  Shane Baz (8)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (15)

ERA:  Joe Boyle (0.00)

Batting Average:  Masataka Yoshida (.750)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (101)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (18)

RBI:  Trevor Story (57)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (15)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (9)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (15)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (11th season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)