Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/01/2025

Game Time: 12:30 pm ET, Saturday, March 1, 2025

Venue:  Capital One Arena, Washington, DC

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning -105, Capitals -115; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning -105, Capitals -115; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning -105, Capitals -115; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  34-20-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Washington Capitals:  38-13-8 (1st place, Metropolitan Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  8-1-1 last 10

Washington Capitals:  5-2-3 last 10

The Lightning are entering this game with 72 points, a 34-20-4 record overall, and they are 13-13-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Calgary Flames in their last game, winning that one at home 3-0. Brandon Hagel, Erik Černák, and Nikita Kucherov each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Victor Hedman led the team in assists with 2 while Victor Hedman led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he recorded the shutout as he allowed 0 goals on 27 shots with 27 saves and a 1.000 save percentage. Their offense has scored 208 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 155 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Capitals are entering this game with 84 points, a 38-13-8 record overall, and they are 18-6-6 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the St Louis Blues in their last game, losing that one at home 5-2. Connor McMichael and Pierre-Luc Dubois each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Connor McMichael, Ethen Frank, Taylor Raddysh, and Matt Roy each led the team in assists with 1 while Alexander Ovechkin led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Charlie Lindgren was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 18 shots with 14 saves and a .778 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 214 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 154 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Capitals listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Capitals have looked great in their games this season with their 38-13-8 record overall which has them right at the top of their division in the East with one of the best records in the entire NHL. They have looked good on home ice too with their 18-6-6 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 34-20-4 record overall which has them in 3rd place of their division in the East and in a playoff spot. They haven't been a good road team though with their 13-13-2 road record. They have looked great lately as they are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 7 wins in a row now, a streak that started before the All-Star break, but they have also played all 3 of their games at home since coming back from the All-Star break. The Capitals haven't looked great lately as they are only 5-3-2 in their last 10 games and are coming off a loss to the Blues in their last one, but they have still been one of the most consistent teams in the NHL this year and will be looking to bounce back at home. They have the added bonus of being the team that can end this Lightning hot streak too so expect the Capitals to bring their best effort here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Capitals to win this game.

Lightning Capitals Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, March 1, 2025 (12:30 pm ET start time) is Capitals 3 Lightning 2.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 127-105 (-11.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 17-25 (-12.1 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite. 64-72 (-22.9 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 30-19 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Washington Capitals: 34-19 (+19.1 units) on the moneyline off a home loss. 61-50 (+11.7 units) on the moneyline after playing a home game. 29-33 (+4.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 28-18 OVER off a home loss.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  None.

Washington Capitals:  T. Wilson (RW) Day To Day - Illness. S. Milano (LW) Out - Upper-body. N. Backstrom (C) Out For Season - Hip. T. Oshie (RW) Out For Season - Back.

“This is one game, but there doesn’t seem to be any holes. The goalie can play, they got defenseman that move the puck, they play an aggressive style, but when they’re in the defensive zone they just don’t give you a whole ton. They can roll any line over the boards, and they’re hard to play against. They defend. They’re going to be a handful, no doubt.” - Jon Cooper on the Flames after his team’s win against them in their game on Thursday.

“I feel like the last couple games just lacked a little bit of – whatever you want to call it – oomph. You can just feel it, and I’m sure you guys can see it. Just second on pucks and little things throughout the entire game. You could tell that we need to do a better job and we’ve got to find it. You know where we’re going with this is comfortable versus desperate, and we’re going to have to find that.” - Spencer Carbery after his team’s loss against the Blues in their game on Thursday.

LW Jake Guentzel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Victor Hedman

RD Janis Jérôme Moser

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

LW Alex Ovechkin

C Dylan Strome

RW Tom Wilson

LD Rasmus Sandin

RD John Carlson

G Charlie Lindgren

Points: N. Kucherov (86)

Goals: B. Point (31)

Assists: N. Kucherov (59)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.21)

Points: D. Strome (59)

Goals: A. Ovechkin (30)

Assists: D. Strome (41)

GAA: L. Thompson (2.28)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (13th season)

Washington Capitals: Spencer Carbery (2nd season)