Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs: Stanley Cup Playoffs, Game 5 Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 5/10/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Tuesday, May 10, 2022
Eastern Conference First Round, Game 5 -- Series tied 2-2

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Where to watch: ESPN2, Bally Sports Sun, CBC, TVAS, Sportsnet

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Maple Leafs -130, Lightning +105
BetMGM: Maple Leafs -125, Lightning +105
Caesars: Maple Leafs -130, Lightning +110

Ben Burns has reeled off a strong 24-13-0 run over the last month in the NHL. The last week of the NHL season is here before we get cracking to playoff coverage. The postseason is here, the matchups are set, and you can count on our coverage for all the playoff matchups. Who's going to win the Cup? You need to be tuned in here to find out all the expert analysis. Catch Ben's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

Lightning - Maple Leafs preview and analysis


This is the weirdest series of the ones still going on. I don’t care if one game was decided by penalties, I don’t care if this one was decided by a goalie falling asleep at the wheel. All we can justifiably say is that this has been entertaining and I have no idea who’s winning Game 5 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Both teams have won on the road, both teams have won in dominant fashion. There has been no separation to this point. But it might be safe to say whoever wins Game 5 in Toronto on Tuesday is going to win this series. And while it might be fool’s gold to keep thinking Tampa can win two in a row, even after winning 7-3 in Game 4, I like Tampa to steal this one.

Tampa scored three times in the first 8 minutes of Game 4, and that’s really all they needed. Ross Colton scored twice, and Steven Stamkos added one to give Tampa a huge win at home.

"Anytime you can hop out to an early lead, it's going to give our team some momentum," Colton said. "We knew they weren't going to go away. I think that's a credit to the guys in the locker room that instead of sitting back and let them take it to us we kind of say, 'Hey, let's get the next one and the next one after that.'"

Tampa got out to a five-goal lead before Toronto finally got on the board. That was the kind of night it was for the Leafs, and really the losing team has had to endure a night like that. There have been no close games at all and there doesn’t seem to be a clear leader in this series.

​​"When we play like that ... we just have to find a way to do it the next game," forward Pat Maroon said. "We know we can do it. We know what works. We know what's successful for our team and playing the right way and playing hard, and playing the right way works."

Both teams combined to go 2-for-11 on the power play, so it’s not like things were decided on special teams like other games in this series. Tampa took it to them, and it did help that they could barely play at 5-on-5, but Toronto couldn’t figure things out with Jack Campbell in net.

"We were not at the required level," Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe said. "Tampa played at a higher level than us and got rewarded for it."

In a big-game situation, it’ll be interesting to see if the shutdown version of Andrei Vasilevskiy will show up. And until we figure out which one will arrive in consecutive games.

"We just wanted to build our game and be a lot better than we were for the first two periods," Maple Leafs captain John Tavares said. "Go out there, win a period, play good hockey. Play to the way we're capable of and start fresh going home."

Prediction


I still want to believe that the Lightning will get back-to-back strong performances from their star goalie, and if there was a time for this to happen, it’d be now. Lightning win 4-2

Betting trends


Lightning are 83-43 against division opponents the past three seasons.

Lightning are 29-19 off an over this season.

Lightning are 10-1 off a win by four goals or more this season.

Maple Leafs are 20-10 after a division game this season.

Maple Leafs are 16-4 this season after playing two straight road games.

Projected lines


Lightning:

Ondrej Palat -- Steven Stamkos -- Nikita Kucherov

Alex Killorn -- Anthony Cirelli -- Brandon Hagel

Nicholas Paul -- Brayden Point -- Ross Colton

Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry

Victor Hedman -- Erik Cernak

Ryan McDonagh -- Cal Foote

Mikhail Sergachev -- Zach Bogosian

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Maple Leafs:

Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner

Ilya Mikheyev -- John Tavares -- Alexander Kerfoot

William Nylander -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall

Nicholas Abruzzese -- Colin Blackwell -- Jason Spezza

Morgan Rielly -- Ilya Lyubushkin

Mark Giordano -- Timothy Liljegren

Jake Muzzin -- TJ Brodie

Jack Campbell

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NHL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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