Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/27/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, April 27, 2023

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  TBS

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning +140, Maple Leafs -165; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning +135, Maple Leafs -155; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning +130, Maple Leafs -155; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  46-30-6 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  50-21-11 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  3-5-2 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-1-1 last 10

The Lightning are entering this game finishing the regular season with 98 points, a 46-30-6 record overall, and they were 18-22-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with all 3 losses coming against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last 3 games, losing that last one at home 5-4 in overtime. Alex Killorn scored 2 goals in that game while Mikhail Sergachev and Steven Stamkos each scored 1 goal in that game. Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov each led the team in assists with 2 while Alex Killorn led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 5 goals on 37 shots with 32 saves and a .865 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 254 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering this game finishing the regular season with 111 points, a 50-21-11 record overall, and they were 27-8-6 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with all 3 wins coming against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last 3 games, winning that last one on the road 5-4 in OT. Auston Matthews scored 2 goals while Noel Acciari, Alexander Kerfoot, and Morgan Rielly each scored 1 goal in that game. William Nylander led the team in assists with 3 while Auston Matthews led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 31 shots with 27 saves and a .871 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 279 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 222 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Leafs listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7-game series between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs for the 1st round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Leafs are entering this game with a 3-1 series lead after winning both road games in Tampa and they have really put the clamp down on the Lightning in this series. The Lightning had 2 chances at home to beat the Leafs, 1 to take the series lead and the other to even up the series 2-2, but they failed in both games and even worse, they were winning each of those games by multiple goals but blew both leads in the 3rd period and went on to lose in OT. The Lightning do have a lot of playoff experience on their team but this is not the same team that won 2 Stanley Cups in a row and have showed it in this series. They weren't great during the regular season either as they failed to reach 100 points and were terrible in their road games while the Leafs had a great home record and finished with over 110 points as they were one of the best teams in the NHL this season. It looks like this is finally the year for the Leafs to advance out of the 1st round of the playoffs and with the way they won those 2 games in Tampa, there is nothing the Lightning can throw at the Leafs in this game to slow them down with a chance to end the series here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Leafs to win this game and end the series 3-1.

Lightning Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, April 27, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 3.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 46-39 (-9.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 13-17 (-12 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 27-16 OVER after allowing 5 goals or more. 31-19 OVER off a loss against a division rival.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 29-12 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline after one or more consecutive overs. 30-11 (+11.8 units) on the moneyline after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored. 29-13 OVER after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored. 9-2 OVER as a # 2 seed in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  M. Eyssimont (C) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. E. Cernak (D) Ques Thurs - Head. B. Seabrook (D) out for season - Shoulder.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Bunting (LW) Elig Thurs - Suspension. V. Mete (D) Early May - Lower Body. M. Murray (G) Out indefinitely - Head. E. Gustafsson (D) Ques Thurs - Upper Body. B. McMann (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Neck. N. Robertson (LW) out for season - Shoulder.

“You have to look at the big picture. We are still going to the rink. The series is not done yet.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Leafs in their game on Monday, game 4 of this series.

“We know what we're up against, what they've accomplished.” - Auston Matthews after their win against the Lightning in their game on Monday, game 4 of this series.

LW Stamkos, Steven

C Point, Brayden

RW Kucherov, Nikita

LD Hedman, Victor

RD Perbix, Nick

G Vasilevskiy, Andrei

LW Järnkrok, Calle

C Matthews, Auston

RW Marner, Mitchell

LD McCabe, Jake

RD Brodie, TJ

G Samsonov, Ilya

Points: N. Kucherov (113)

Goals: B. Point (51)

Assists: N. Kucherov (83)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.65)

Points: M. Marner (99)

Goals: W. Nylander (40)

Assists: M. Marner (69)

GAA: J. Alexander (0.00)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (11th season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (4th season)