Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/20/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, April 20, 2023

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning +125, Maple Leafs -145; Over/Under:  6 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning +135, Maple Leafs -155; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning +120, Maple Leafs -145; Over/Under:  6 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  46-30-6 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  50-21-11 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  5-5-0 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  6-2-2 last 10

The Lightning are entering this game finishing the regular season with 98 points, a 46-30-6 record overall, and they were 18-22-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Detroit Red Wings and the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one on the road 7-3. Brayden Point scored 2 goals in that game while Nikita Kucherov, Corey Perry, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, and Pierre-Édouard Bellemare each had 1 goal. Nikita Kucherov and Corey Perry each led the team in assists with 2 while Corey Perry led the team in shots on net in that game with 7. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots with 28 saves and a .903 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 254 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering this game finishing the regular season with 111 points, a 50-21-11 record overall, and they were 27-8-6 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, losing that one at home 7-3. Calle Järnkrok, William Nylander, and Ryan O'Reilly each had 1 goal. Mitch Marner led the team in assists with 3 while William Nylander and John Tavares each led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 6 goals on 29 shots with 23 saves and a .793 sv percentage before getting replaced by Joseph Woll who allowed 1 goal on 5 shots with 4 saves and a .800 save percentage. Their offense has scored 279 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 222 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Leafs listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 2 of a 7-game series between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs for the 1st round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Leafs got off to a terrible start in game 1 with a really bad 1st period that put them down 3-0 in a hole that was hard for them to out of. They played a lot better in the 2nd period though and were starting to comeback in the game before the Lightning started to get a lot of help from the men in stripes and were able to retake control of the game. The Leafs finished the season with 111 points this year and they were a really good home team all year. They are going to bounce back in this game with a win to even up the series going into Tampa Bay and the embarrassment of game 1 will only motivate them further to play more disciplined and really get after the Lightning early in the game. The Leafs have a far better team than the Lightning do and despite the recent performance of both teams in the playoffs in recent years, the Lightning are trending in the wrong direction as a team and don't deserve to make it out of the 1st round. The best way to place a bet here is on the Leafs to win this game.

Lightning Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, April 20, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Maple Leafs 6 Lightning 1.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 13-14 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 20-21 (-9.2 units) on the moneyline after playing a road game. 25-12 OVER after playing a road game. 16-9 OVER off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 26-12 (+6.8 units) on the moneyline after one or more consecutive overs. 11-2 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline off a home loss. 22-11 OVER after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals. 27-13 OVER after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  M. Eyssimont (C) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. E. Cernak (D) Ques Thurs - Head. V. Hedman (D) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. T. Jeannot (LW) Ques Thurs - Lower Body. B. Seabrook (D) out for season - Shoulder.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Bunting (LW) Ques Thurs - Poss. Suspension. V. Mete (D) Late April - Lower Body. M. Murray (G) Out indefinitely - Head. E. Gustafsson (D) Ques Thurs - Personal. B. McMann (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Neck. N. Robertson (LW) out for season - Shoulder.

“We have a plan, we stuck to it. It’s something that works. Everybody’s buying in.” - Corey Perry after their win against the Leafs in their game on Tuesday, game 1 of this series.

“Those (penalty calls) that are borderline, more likely than not are probably gonna go their way. They’ve been in finals three times in a row. We have to be just extremely disciplined.” - John Tavares after their loss against the Lightning in their game on Tuesday, game 1 of this series. 

LW Stamkos, Steven

C Point, Brayden

RW Kucherov, Nikita

LD Hedman, Victor

RD Perbix, Nick

G Vasilevskiy, Andrei

LW Bunting, Michael

C Matthews, Auston

RW Marner, Mitchell

LD McCabe, Jake

RD Brodie, TJ

G Samsonov, Ilya

Points: N. Kucherov (113)

Goals: B. Point (51)

Assists: N. Kucherov (83)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.65)

Points: M. Marner (99)

Goals: W. Nylander (40)

Assists: M. Marner (69)

GAA: J. Alexander (0.00)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (11th season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (4th season)