Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/03/2024

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning +120, Leafs -142; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning +120, Leafs -142; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning +120, Leafs -142; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  41-26-7 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Toronto Maple Leafs:  43-22-9 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  8-1-1 last 10

Toronto Maple Leafs:  6-3-1 last 10

The Lightning are entering this game with 89 points, a 41-26-7 record overall, and they are 18-16-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Detroit Red Wings in their last game, losing that one at home 4-2. Anthony Cirelli and Steven Stamkos each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, and Brayden Point each led the team in assists with 1 while Steven Stamkos led the team in shots on net in that game with 8. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots with 28 saves and a .903 save percentage. Their offense has scored 259 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 241 goals against them allowing 3.3 goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 95 points, a 43-22-9 record overall, and they are 21-13-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Florida Panthers in their last game, winning that one at home 6-4. Auston Matthews led the team in goals scored with 2 while Matthew Knies, Nicholas Robertson, Tyler Bertuzzi, and David Kämpf each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Nicholas Robertson, T. J. Brodie, Max Domi, and Pontus Holmberg each led the team in assists with 1 while Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, David Kämpf, Connor Dewar, and John Tavares each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 31 shots with 27 saves and a .871 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 275 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 41-26-7 record overall which has them in 4th place of their division in the East right now and in a Wild Card spot for the playoffs. They haven't looked great in their road games this year with their 18-16-3 road record, but they have looked really good in their games lately as they have been hot now. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have also looked really good in their games this season with their 43-22-9 record overall which has them in 3rd place of their division in the East and in a playoff spot right now. They have looked good on their home ice with their 21-13-3 home record this year, but they haven't been at their best there. The Leafs have looked good in their games lately with their 6-3-1 record in their last 10 games, but they are not the hotter team coming into this one. They did beat the Panthers in their last one which took a lot of energy in a high scoring 6-4 game, but the Lightning are coming off a home loss in their last one and will be looking to bounce back here. The Lightning have been the hotter team lately with their 8-1-1 record in their last 10 games and this is an important game for them in the standings since the Leafs are the team they are trailing by 6 points. This is a great opportunity for the Lightning to bounce back from their loss and gain some ground in the standings while they are still hot as the Leafs are coming off a really tough win against one of the best in the NHL and could be due for a bit of a let down here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Lightning Maple Leafs Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, April 3, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 5 Leafs 3.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 16-7 (+8.4 units) on the moneyline revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 21-12 (+5.2 units) on the moneyline after playing 3 consecutive home games. 7-1 OVER revenging 2 straight close losses vs opponent by 1 goal or less. 13-6 OVER off a home loss by 2 goals or more.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 155-100 (-18.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 14-11 (-10.5 units) on the moneyline off a home win against a division rival. 23-14 OVER in a home game where the total is 6 or more. 16-6 OVER off a win by 2 goals or more over a division rival.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  J. Johansson (G) Ques Wed - Lower Body. M. Sergachev (D) Late April - Leg. B. Seabrook (D) out for season - Shoulder. L. Brown (C) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  M. Rielly (D) Ques Wed - Upper Body. J. Edmundson (D) Mid April - Undisclosed. M. Marner (RW) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Liljegren (D) Out indefinitely - Upper Body. C. Jarnkrok (C) Out indefinitely - Hand. J. Klingberg (D) out for season - Hip. M. Murray (G) out for season - Hip. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Spine.

“We were in pretty good shape for most of that third period, until we weren’t. We haven’t lost in regulation since the first week in March, now we’re in April. We’ve asked a lot from the guys, and they’ve delivered. I can’t sit here and be hard on the guys, they’ve played really well for us.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Red Wings in their game on Monday.

“We were really good for two periods. They probably weren’t at their best and we capitalized on that. And then probably a little bit of a reverse in the third.” - Sheldon Keefe after his team’s win against the Panthers in their game on Monday.

LW Duclair, Anthony

C Point, Brayden

RW Kucherov, Nikita

LD Hedman, Victor

RD Raddysh, Darren

G Vasilevskiy, Andrei

LW Bertuzzi, Tyler

C Matthews, Auston

RW Domi, Max

LD Brodie, TJ

RD Lyubushkin, Ilya

G Samsonov, Ilya

Points: N. Kucherov (127)

Goals: N. Kucherov (42)

Assists: N. Kucherov (85)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.86)

Points: A. Matthews (98)

Goals: A. Matthews (62)

Assists: W. Nylander (55)

GAA: M. Jones (2.70)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (12th season)

Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (5th season)