Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/26/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Sunday, April 26, 2026

Venue:  Bell Centre, Montréal, QC

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  6 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  50-26-6 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Montreal Canadiens:  48-24-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  4-4-2 last 10

Montreal Canadiens:  6-3-1 last 10

The Lightning are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 50-26-6 record overall, and they were 24-12-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Montreal Canadiens in their last game, losing that one on the road 3-2 in overtime. Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov each led the team in assists with 1 while Janis Moser led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 29 shots with 26 saves and a .897 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 290 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Canadiens are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 48-24-10 record overall, and they were 24-15-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, winning that one at home 3-2 in OT. Alexandre Texier, Kirby Dach, and Lane Hutson each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Zachary Bolduc led the team in assists with 2 while Zachary Bolduc, Ivan Demidov, Mike Matheson, and Phillip Danault each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Jakub Dobeš was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 17 shots with 15 saves and a .882 save percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 256 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Canadiens have looked good in their games this season with their 48-24-10 record overall which had them in the top half of their division in the East. They have looked good on home ice too with their 24-15-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 50-26-6 record overall which had them right near the top of their division in the East. They have been a good road team too with their 24-12-5 road record this year. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Lightning and the 3rd seeded Canadiens in the Atlantic for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Canadiens have a 2-1 series lead after winning game 3 by a score of 3-2. These two went to OT again in game 3 and it has been a really tight series with all 3 games going past regulation. Neither team has really been out of any of these games and the Lightning are going to bring their best effort to even up this series, playing with some desperation. They weren't able to get the home advantage back in this series in game 3, but they had their chances and they are going to throw everything they have at this game to avoid going back home on the bronk of elimination. The Canadiens have shown that they have the talent to go toe-to-toe with the Lightning in this series, but the Lightning still have one of the best goaltenders in the NHL along with a team of players who have a lot more playoff experience to lean on. The Canadiens have looked great in this series so far, but they are still a younger team that hasn't really been here before and this is the game that they are going to see a lot of push back from the Lightning in, and they won't be able to withstand it. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Lightning Canadiens Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Sunday, April 26, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 3 Canadiens 1.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 145-114 (-11.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 3-10 (-8.1 units) on the moneyline in the first round of the playoffs. 138-108 (-9.5 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 6-3 OVER when trailing in a playoff series.

Montreal Canadiens: 72-76 (+21 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 to +200. 120-133 (+8.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 27-31 (+14.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 26-18 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  C. D'Astous (D) Day To Day - Undisclosed. P. Holmberg (RW) Out - Upper-Body. V. Hedman (D) Out - Personal. 

Montreal Canadiens:  N. Dobson (D) Out - Thumb. P. Laine (RW) Out - Abdomen.

“I thought out of the three games this was our worst game, you know, for us, from start to finish. It was fortunate for us that we took this to overtime. We gave up three pretty much full-ice breakaways, the goalie kept us in it, so that was a little disappointing in that sense.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Canadiens in the 3rd game of this series on Friday.

“(Hutson) plays some important minutes for us and I feel comfortable with him on the ice in any matchup. I never try to protect him because he competes so hard. We love when he has the puck on his stick, he’s elite. We’re lucky to have him.” - Martin St Louis after his team’s win against the Lightning in game 3 of this series on Friday.

LW Gage Goncalves

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Darren Raddysh

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

LW Cole Caufield

C Nick Suzuki

RW Juraj Slafkovský

LD Mike Matheson

RD Alexandre Carrier

G Jakub Dobes

Points: Nikita Kucherov (130)

Goals: Nikita Kucherov (44)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (86)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.31)

Points: Nick Suzuki (101)

Goals: Cole Caufield (51)

Assists: Nick Suzuki (72)

GAA: Jacob Fowler (2.43)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)

Montreal Canadiens: Martin St. Louis (5th season)