Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/28/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Monday, April 28, 2025

Venue:  Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning +120, Panthers -142; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning +120, Panthers -140; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning +120, Panthers -140; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  47-27-8 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Florida Panthers:  47-31-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Will Rogers is on a HOT STREAK in the NHL on a 6-1 NHL RUN for +$5,210 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  4-3-3 last 10

Florida Panthers:  5-5-0 last 10

The Lightning are entering the playoffs with 102 points, a 47-27-8 record overall, and they were 18-19-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Florida Panthers in their last game, winning that one on the road 5-1. Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli, Luke Glendening, Nicholas Paul, and Brayden Point each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Jake Guentzel, Gage Goncalves, Nikita Kucherov, and Ryan McDonagh each led the team in assists with 2 while Jake Guentzel led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 34 shots with 33 saves and a .971 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 294 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 219 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The Panthers are entering the playoffs with 98 points, a 47-31-4 record overall, and they were 27-12-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, losing that one at home 5-1. Matthew Tkachuk scored 1 goal for them in that one. Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues each led the team in assists with 1 while Aleksander Barkov led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 21 shots with 17 saves and a .809 save percentage. Their offense has scored 252 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 223 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Panthers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Lightning and the 3rd seeded Panthers from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Panthers are leading this series 2-1 after the Lightning won game 3 on the road. The Lightning made it a 2-1 series with a 5-1 win over the Panthers in the 3rd game and their offense finally got going in that one. They dropped both of their games at home to start the series so they were in a desperate situation and needed to make something happen in game 3. They were terrible in the 1st game as they lost 6-2 at home and they looked a lot better in game 2 but still lost 2-0 as they couldn't find the net. Their offense finally got going in game 3 with a 5-1 win and that should give them some momentum coming into this one. As good as they looked in that game, the Lightning were still terrible on the road this season with their 18-19-4 road record and the Panthers can take advantage of that. The Panthers looked great on home ice this year and they are going to be looking to bounce back after such a bad game at home. They also did so much work in the first 2 games to put the Lightning in a really tough spot so the last thing they want is to blow that lead when they can go back to Tampa for game 5 with a chance to end the series there. The Lightning were desperate so they came out really strong in game 3, but now the Panthers will have some motivation to lean on here off of that loss, and the Lightning struggled a lot against the Panthers in the regular season too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Panthers to win this game.  

Lightning Panthers Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Monday, April 28, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Panthers 4 Lightning 2.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Tampa Bay Lightning Florida Panthers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NHL predictions and previews.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 22-38 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline as an underdog. 59-64 (-13.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 72-80 (-25.4 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 19-8 OVER off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more.

Florida Panthers: 10-5 (+7.6 units) on the moneyline in the first round of the playoffs. 109-85 (+4.1 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 165-112 (+8.7 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 10-4 OVER in the first round of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  O. Bjorkstrand (RW) Out - Lower Body. 

Florida Panthers:  None.

"Getting the lead is huge. The first few minutes, we're down 1-0 and the building is buzzing. I think the mental strength of our team is tying their heads around that, keep going, and eventually tie it. Then we pierced that bubble, finally had the lead." - Jon Cooper after his team’s win against the Panthers in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

"I liked our start, liked the pace of our game. I thought we stopped moving the puck as well as we can. I don't think we were great, but offensively, we probably generated more [Saturday] than in either of the other two games. We have lots of room to get better; I am sure they do too. This is going to be a grinder straight through." - Paul Maurice after his team’s loss against the Lightning in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

LW Jake Guentzel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Victor Hedman

RD Janis Jérôme Moser

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

LW Carter Verhaeghe

C Aleksander Barkov

RW Sam Reinhart

LD Gustav Forsling

RD Aaron Ekblad

G Sergei Bobrovsky

Points: N. Kucherov (121)

Goals: B. Point (42)

Assists: N. Kucherov (84)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.18)

Points: S. Reinhart (81)

Goals: S. Reinhart (39)

Assists: A. Barkov (51)

GAA: S. Bobrovsky (2.44)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (13th season)

Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (3rd season)