by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Apr 11, 2022
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Check back later
BetMGM: Check back later
Caesars: Check back later
Season record
Lightning: 44-20-8
Stars: 41-27-4
Ben Burns has reeled off a strong 29-14-0 run over the last month in the NHL. After an action-packed month of March, April is bound to be just as crazy with the playoff push underway. Do you have the right picks to lead you to glory and get you ready for what should be an exciting push to the end? Catch Ben's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Lightning - Stars preview and analysis
The Dallas Stars let a big opportunity get away from them on Saturday, and wouldn’t make it happen again on Sunday. But now the brunt of the Stars’ schedule will start to pick up speed when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday in American Airlines Center.
Dallas was 1:10 away from at least earning a point Saturday against the New Jersey Devils, but Nico Hischier scored the winning goal with just over a minute to go to get New Jersey a regulation win and prevent the Stars from gaining ground on the Vegas Golden Knights for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
Any frustration was taken out on the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday in a 6-4 win for Dallas to increase its lead on Vegas back to two points, but now with just one game in hand. The Golden Knights play the Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday, as well.
Jason Robertson scored twice to inch closer to a 40-goal season in his second NHL campaign, and Roope Hintz had a goal and two assists. Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Joe Pavelski even had two-goal nights in what was a dominant effort from Dallas’ top half.
"Yeah, after last night, a game that was very disappointing, was very proud of the guys the way they responded," Dallas coach Rick Bowness said. "We came out ready to go. It was a really good effort by everybody."
Not that it needed to take a lot for the Stars to get ready for a Chicago team that has been nothing short of disappointing all season, and even was tied 3-3 at one point. But the name of the game this time of year is to win games, and that’s exactly what the Stars needed to do.
"We had a lot of good stuff going," Pavelski said. "There's been stretches in the last month where we've had a lot of looks, me especially at times, and it hasn't gone in. When it starts going in, we had a lot of looks tonight. We were finishing well tonight and had confidence."
Meanwhile, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions may be running out of gas with 11 games remaining. It’s hard to actually think that knowing how good they are and how capable they are of accomplishing a 3-peat, but the Lightning have lost four of five and seven of their last 12.
Which is truly astonishing.
But the Lightning actually got back into the win column at the expense of the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday in a 5-0 victory at home. Brian Elliott made 28 saves and the Lightning jumped back into third place of the Atlantic Division over the Boston Bruins, who jumped them on Saturday after beating the Lightning 2-1 in overtime.
Ondrej Palat had a goal and an assist and Corey Perry scored because of course he did at age 90.
"If you can get contributions all through the lineup, it helps your cause," Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. "We didn't have to depend on special teams. We only took one penalty tonight. That's what we need to do. It was nice to see everyone contributing tonight."
Prediction
The fact that Tampa is in need of points makes me want to take them in this crucial game. Of course Dallas needs them too, and a loss by the Stars with a Vegas win would certainly put more pressure on Dallas to win going forward. Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been great, nor has the defense led by Victor Hedman. They need a much better performance, and I think Tampa gets it done. Lightning win 4-3
Betting trends
Lightning are 1-9 in last 10 against a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-1 in last nine Lightning road games.
Stars are 1-4 in last five after scoring five goals or more in last game.
Lightning are 6-1 in last seven in Dallas.
Projected lines
Lightning:
Ondrej Palat -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Nicholas Paul -- Steven Stamkos -- Ross Colton
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Jan Rutta
Mikhail Sergachev -- Erik Cernak
Cal Foote -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ondrej Palat -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Nicholas Paul -- Steven Stamkos -- Ross Colton
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Jan Rutta
Mikhail Sergachev -- Erik Cernak
Cal Foote -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stars:
Jason Robertson -- Roope Hintz -- Joe Pavelski
Jamie Benn -- Tyler Seguin -- Marian Studenic
Joel Kiviranta -- Vladislav Namestnikov -- Alexander Radulov
Michael Raffl -- Radek Faksa -- Luke Glendening
Ryan Suter -- Miro Heiskanen
Joel Hanley -- John Klingberg
Esa Lindell -- Jani Hakanpaa
Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson -- Roope Hintz -- Joe Pavelski
Jamie Benn -- Tyler Seguin -- Marian Studenic
Joel Kiviranta -- Vladislav Namestnikov -- Alexander Radulov
Michael Raffl -- Radek Faksa -- Luke Glendening
Ryan Suter -- Miro Heiskanen
Joel Hanley -- John Klingberg
Esa Lindell -- Jani Hakanpaa
Jake Oettinger
Statistical leaders
Lightning:
Points: Steven Stamkos -- 80
Goals: Steven Stamkos -- 32
Assists: Victor Hedman -- 49
Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy -- 35-16-5, 2.45 GAA, .917 SV%
Stars:
Points: Joe Pavelski -- 72
Goals: Jason Robertson -- 34
Assists: Joe Pavelski -- 45
Goalie: Jake Oettinger -- 26-13-1, 2.49 GAA, .914 SV%
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Tampa Bay Lightning - Dallas Stars prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NHL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
