Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo Sabres: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/28/2022

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY

Where to watch: BSSUN, MSG-B

DraftKings: Lightning -175, Sabres +150

FanDuel: Lightning -170, Sabres +140

BetMGM: Lightning -175, Sabres +145

Caesars: Lightning -178, Sabres +150

Lightning: 12-7-1

Sabres: 9-12-0

Lightning: won 5-2 vs. Blues

Sabres: lost 3-1 vs. Devils

I'm trying to figure out if the Buffalo Sabres are actually on pace to get back to where they were to start the season, or if they're about to fall flat on their face once again. After running into the buzzsaw that was the New Jersey Devils the other night, Buffalo now finds itself facing the Tampa Bay Lightning at home on Monday and I'm having mixed feelings about this. On one hand, Buffalo was not playing well. On the other hand, you can make the case that Tampa is not either and something is bound to give at some point when these two teams meet on Monday.

Buffalo had lost seven in a row before winning two in a row at Montreal and at home against the Blues last week. Then came a meeting with the red hot devils, pun somewhat intended, and could not break through the stout New Jersey defense. Buffalo has just not been prepared for the big time yet, and that's to be expected. I think they went into This season off a strong start to the year and have since kind of floundered a little bit as to be expected. The scoring for Buffalo has kind of dipped off a little bit. However, there are still some big-time names making plays. Tage Thompson continues to be an unreal star in the making with 26 points in 21 games, Alex Tuch is averaging a point per game with ten goals as well. Defensively, Rasmus Dahlin continues to be the all-world game-changer that I think many expected him to be with 23 points in 20 games.

The problem for Buffalo, as has it's been for the longest time, has been goaltending. Eric Comrie was looking sharp as a free agent acquisition for Buffalo, but with a 4-7-0 record and now on injured reserve, if you go to ending now falls upon the ageless wonder that is Craig Anderson and rookie goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Anderson has actually been very good in that overall for Buffalo, posting a 4-4-0 record, a 2.76 goals against average, and a .917 save percentage. Even in his 40s, Anderson continues to find a way to play like he's still in his mid to late 20s.

But is it enough to keep Buffalo engaged for as long as possible to be a contender in the Eastern Conference? Buffalo has dropped to 2nd to last place in the Atlantic division only one point ahead of the Ottawa Senators. And when you look at the landscape of this division with Boston being at the top of the league at 18-3-0, followed by Toronto getting back on track and Detroit looking strong, followed by Tampa and Florida also in the race, and we can't forget about Montreal for the love of God, the Atlantic division is a gigantic cluster that is going to be full of entertainment.

Which is why it's kind of refreshing that right now the Atlantic is not Tampa's division. Considering the fact that Tampa has gotten out of the gates a little rocky after all the hockey they have played together over the last three years, this has been expected. But Tampa appears to have gotten on track with five wins in its last six games, the only loss coming against the Bruins the other day. Tampa is coming off a 5-2 victory over the Blues in their last game. And as usual, it is the same suspects for Tampa that are carrying the load.

Nikita Kucherov has regained his form with 31 points in 20 games, Steven Stamkos continues to never want to get old with 23 points and 20 games and a team-high ten goals, and Brayden Point once again is really good with 21 points in 20 games. Even defensively, it has not been Victor Hedman that is carried the load in the back end. Mikhail Sergachev has 19 points in 20 games and is another one of those defensemen that continues to impress this year.

Just the overall willingness of having so much talent and so much experience will make it difficult for any young team to take on the Lightning. And this game will not be an exception.

Tampa Bay has looked good over the last two weeks and if that Boston game is just a small outlier of what has happened, then that's nothing. No matter which goaltender Buffalo throws in there on Monday, they're in for a long night. Lightning win 5-2

Sabres are 11-43 revenging a loss to an opponent of 2 goals or more the last 3 seasons.

Sabres are 0-5 at home after a loss by 2 goals or more this season.

The over is 39-24 after the Lightning go over the last 2 seasons.

Lightning:

Brandon Hagel -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov

Steven Stamkos -- Nicholas Paul -- Alex Killorn

Ross Colton -- Vladislav Namestnikov -- Corey Perry

Pat Maroon -- Alex Barre-Boulet -- Rudolfs Balcers

Victor Hedman -- Erik Cernak

Mikhail Sergachev -- Ian Cole

Haydn Fleury -- Zach Bogosian

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Sabres:

Jeff Skinner -- Tage Thompson -- Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka -- Dylan Cozens -- Jack Quinn

Victor Olofsson -- Casey Mittelstadt -- Vinnie Hinostroza

Zemgus Girgensons -- Tyson Jost -- Kyle Okposo

Mattias Samuelsson -- Rasmus Dahlin

Owen Power -- Henri Jokiharju

Casey Fitzgerald -- Ilya Lyubushkin

Craig Anderson