Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/02/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Sunday, October 3, 2021
Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch:  NBC

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bucs -6.5, Pats +6.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bucs -6.5, Pats +6.5; Over/Under:  49 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bucs -6.5, Pats +6.5; Over/Under:  49 points
 

Season Record

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  2-1 (2nd place, NFC South)
New England Patriots:  1-2 (3rd place, AFC East)
 
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  lost on the road on Sep. 26 against the Los Angeles Rams 34-24.
New England Patriots:  lost at home on Sep. 26 against the New Orleans Saints 28-13.
 
 
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis

The Bucs are coming into this game with a 2-1 record overall and they are 0-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. The defending Super Bowl Champions started their year off strong with wins against the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons. They were handed their first loss of the season in their last game by Matthew Stafford and the LA Rams. That was Tom Brady's first real road game since coming to the Bucs with a full stadium of fans in it and it did not end well for him. He did play a great game despite them losing as he completed 14/55 passes for 432 yards and 1 touchdown. They were not able to get anything going on the ground as Ronald Jones II finished the game with 11 yards on 5 carries and Leonard Fournette had 8 yards on 4 carries. Tom Brady actually led the team in rushing in that game with 14 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 carries. The receiving corps did have a nice day as the ball was spread around quite well. Mike Evans led the team in receiving with 106 yards on 8 receptions while Chris Godwin had 74 yards on 6 receptions. Tyler Johnson also got involved with 3 catches for 63 yards and old reliable Rob Gronkowski had 55 yards on 4 receptions. Lavonte David led the defense with 6 solo tackles while Antoine Winfield Jr. was right behind him with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. William Gholston was the only player on this defense who was able to record 1 sack in that one and no one on the defense at all was able to come up with an interception. They have scored 103 points in their first 3 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 88 points against them. Their offense has accumulated 1,218 yards this season while their defense has allowed 1,206 yards against them.
 
 

New England Patriots Analysis

The Patriots are coming into this game with a 1-2 record this season and they are 0-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. Their 1 win this season came against the struggling New York Jets while their 2 losses came against the Miami Dolphins in their season-opener and the New Orleans Saints in their last game. Mac Jones really struggled in their last game as he completed 30/51 passes for 270 yards, 1 touchdown. and 3 interceptions. They were not able to get a good run game going in that one as Jones led the team in rushing with 28 yards on 6 carries. The receiving corps did have a decent day as Kendrick Bourne led the receivers with 96 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Jakobi Meyers was right behind him with 94 yards on 9 receptions. Ja'Whaun Bentley led their defense with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one while Deatrich Wise Jr. was right behind him with 5 solo tackles, 1 assisted one and 0.5 sacks. Matthew Judon actually led the defense in sacks in that game with 2.5 but no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception. They have scored 54 points in their first 3 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 51 points against them. Their offense has accumulated 953 yards this season while their defense has allowed 847 yards against them.
 
 

 

Buccaneers vs Patriots Prediction

Tom Brady and the Bucs are coming into this one at a 6.5 point favorite with the current betting odds. This will be the first time in Brady's career that he goes head-to-head against the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick. This will be his return to Gillette Stadium for the first time since leaving as well. This is a big game for both sides but the choice is pretty clear here. It is obvious that the Patriots have turned into a disaster without Tom Brady yet he leaves to go to the Bucs and wins a Super Bowl in his first season with them. The Bucs are loaded with talent on both offense and defense and they have a lot of depth at their positions as well. The Patriots are a very young team with a rookie quarterback and he is about to get a lesson from the master in this game. This game will answer the age old question as to who made the Patriots so great over all of those years, Belichick or Brady. The answer will be Brady as he will come into Gillette and put on a show, especially coming off his first loss of the season. The Bucs will win this game in a blowout so the best bet to place here is on them to cover the spread.
 
Buccaneers Patriots Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 3, 2021 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 37 Patriots 17.
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NFL Betting Trends

 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-3 O/U as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 26-13 O/U in all games. 16-7 O/U as a favorite. 14-4 O/U in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 
New England Patriots: 47-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 91-53 ATS as an underdog. 25-9 ATS as a home underdog. 139-111 ATS in home games.
 

Key Injuries

 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  S. Miller (WR) Out indefinitely - Toe injury. J. Dean (CB) day-to-day - Knee injury. J. Mickens (WR) day-to-day - Abdominal injury.
New England Patriots:  J. White (RB) Out indefinitely - Hip injury. J. Bentley (LB) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury. T. Brown (OL) day-to-day - Calf injury.
 

Players to Watch

 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tom Brady is one player to watch in this matchup. This is his first time returning to Gillette Stadium on a different team and it will be interesting to see what he does here. Look for him to put on a show in front of his old coach and team and really put this Patriots franchise in their place after this game.
 
New England Patriots: Mac Jones is one player to watch here. He is the one that is running this offense now and it is up to him to make the clutch plays in this game. Look for him to make some big throws down the field as he goes toe-to-toe with Tom Brady here and tries to pull off an upset.
 

Notable Quotes

"We're up in his face one time, he finds a guy wide open down the field and gets it to him. Other guys, they see him but they can't get it to 'em. He gets it to them, so he's a special player." - Bruce Arians on Matt Stafford after their loss last week to the Rams.
 
 
"I think it just goes back to execution. I can do a better job just sticking to my reads and being patient and letting things develop. I didn't do a good job of that today." - Mac Jones after his team lost to the Saints last week.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Evans, Mike 
WR Godwin, Chris 
TE Howard, OJ 
TE GRONKOWSKI, ROB 
QB BRADY, TOM 
RB Jones II, Ronald 
RB Fournette, Leonard 
 
New England Patriots
WR Agholor, Nelson 
WR Meyers, Jakobi 
TE Smith, Jonnu 
QB Jones, Mac 
RB Harris, Damien 
FB Johnson, Jakob 

Statistical Leaders

 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: T. Brady (1087)
Rushing: L. Fournette (92)
Receiving: C. Godwin (241)
Touchdowns: R. Gronkowski (4)
Sacks: S. Barrett (1)
Tackles: L. David (16)
 
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (737)
Rushing: D. Harris (176)
Receiving: J. Meyers (176)
Touchdowns: D. Harris (1)
Sacks: M. Judon (3.5)
Tackles: J. Bentley (16)
 
Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bruce Arians (3rd season)
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (22nd season)
 

Weather Forecast

65 degrees F partly cloudy, 65% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 7 mph wind speeds NW.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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